热带海洋学报

• •    

CMIP5/6气候模式对El Nino多样性模拟能力的评估

王卫强1, 2, 张茜娅1, 3, 徐康1, 2, 李俊灵1, 3, 苗浩宇1, 3   

  1. 1. 热带海洋环境国家重点实验室(中国科学院南海海洋研究所), 广东 广州 510301;

    2. 南方海洋科学与工程广东省实验室(广州),广东 广州 511458;

    3. 中国科学院大学, 北京 100049

  • 收稿日期:2022-04-07 修回日期:2022-05-24 出版日期:2022-05-24 发布日期:2022-05-24
  • 通讯作者: 王卫强
  • 基金资助:

    国家自然科学基金项目(42076020); 自然资源部海洋环境科学与数值模拟重点实验室开放基金项目(2020-ZD-04); 中国科学院青年创新促进会人才专项(2020340); 中国科学院南海海洋研究所南海新星项目(NHXX2018WL0201); 南方海洋科学与工程广东省实验室(广州)人才团队引进重大专项(GML2019ZD0306); 热带海洋环境国家重点实验室(中国科学院南海海洋研究所)自主研究项目(LTOZZ2101)

Assessment of El Nino diversity simulations by CMIP6 and CMIP5 models

WANG Weiqiang1, 2, ZHANG Xiya1, 3, XU Kang1, 2, LI Junling1, 3, MIAO Haoyu1, 3   

  1. 1. State Key Laboratory of Tropical Oceanography (South China Sea Institute of Oceanology, Chinese Academy of Sciences), Guangzhou 510301, China;

    2. Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory (Guangzhou), Guangzhou 511458, China;

    3. University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China

  • Received:2022-04-07 Revised:2022-05-24 Online:2022-05-24 Published:2022-05-24
  • Contact: Weiqiang Wang
  • Supported by:

     National Natural Science Foundation of China (42076020); Open Fund of Key Laboratory of Marine Science and Numerical Modeling, Ministry of Natural Resources (2020-ZD-04); Youth Innovation Promotion Association CAS (2020340); Rising Star Foundation of the South China Sea Institute of Oceanology (NHXX2018WL0201); Key Special Project for Introduced Talents Team of Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory (Guangzhou) (GML2019ZD0306); Independent Research Project Program of State Key Laboratory of Tropical Oceanography (LTOZZ2101)

摘要: 本文利用第五次和第六次国际间耦合模式比较计划(coupled model intercomparison project, CMIP)中全球气候模式的历史时期和未来增暖情景模拟结果,结合观测资料,对比评估了23个CMIP6模式和32个CMIP5模式对El Nino多样性的模拟能力,并预估了东部(eastern Pacific, EP)型和中部(central Pacific, CP)型El Nino对未来全球变暖的响应特征。结果表明,绝大多数CMIP5/6气候模式能够合理地模拟El Ni?o的多样性特征,且CMIP6多模式的模拟性能较CMIP5有明显提升。CMIP6模式不仅减弱了EP型El Nino空间模态模拟的离散性,而且还显著提高了CP型El Nino空间模态的模拟能力;CMIP5/6多模式基本能够模拟出两类El Nino的季节锁相性特征,但CP型El Nino衰亡时间较观测明显滞后3个月;同时CMIP5/6多模式模拟的EP型El Nino强度与观测值较为接近,但CP型El Nino的振幅却强于观测。在未来全球变暖背景下,CP型El Nino事件的发生频率相对于EP型事件将趋于降低;EP型和CP型El Nino振幅强度随着全球变暖加剧将被增强,且EP型增强幅度显著强于CP型。

关键词: CMIP5/6气候模式, 东部型El Nino, 中部型El Nino, 全球变暖, 未来预估

Abstract: Based on the observations and the global climate model simulation outputs of historical run and future warming scenarios from the phase 5 and phase 6 of the coupled model intercomparison project (CMIP), we assessed the performance of 23 CMIP6 and 32 CMIP5 models in reproducing El Nino diversity, and then projected the responses of the eastern Pacific (EP) and central Pacific (CP) type of El Nino to global warming. The results show that most CMIP5/6 models can reasonably simulate the characteristics of El Nino diversity, and the simulation performance of CMIP6 models is significantly improved compared with CMIP5 models. The CMIP6 models not only weaken the discreteness of the simulated EP El Ni?o-related spatial patterns, but also significantly improve the simulation ability of the CP El Nino-associated spatial patterns. The CMIP5/6 models can basically simulate the seasonal phase-locking characteristics of the EP and CP El Nino events, however, compared to the observation, the decay time of the simulated CP El Nino is obviously delayed by 3 months. The intensity of EP El Nino simulated by CMIP5/6 is close to the observation, but the counterpart of CP El Nino is stronger than the observation. Under global warming, the frequency of CP El Nino will tend to decrease relative to EP El Nino. The amplitudes of EP and CP El Nino will be enhanced along with the intensification of global warming, and the enhanced amplitude of EP El Nino is significantly stronger than that of CP El Nino.

Key words: CMIP5/6 climate models, Eastern Pacific El Nino, Central Pacific El Nino, global warming, Future projection