沿海地区既是我国人口、经济和社会发展的重要区域, 又是自然灾害易发和频发区域。基于中国沿海1989—2008年台风风暴潮增水数据、航天飞机雷达地形测绘任务3秒数字高程模型(SRTM3DEM)数据、2009年县级行政区数据、2005年100m土地利用栅格数据、2003年平方公里人口和国内生产总值(GDP)数据, 进行了中国沿海海平面上升背景下的中国东部沿海台风风暴潮脆弱性分析。采用线性回归法得到海平面上升值, 采用回归分析法得到风暴潮回归周期和相应潮高, 采用高程面积法得到风暴潮土地利用淹没图, 采用地统计法得到各高程内被淹县市土地利用面积、被淹人口和GDP。研究结果表明, 珠江三角洲地区、长江三角洲和长江以北的江苏北部沿海地区、莱州湾及黄河三角洲和渤海湾与辽东湾地区是我国沿海三大主要台风风暴潮脆弱区, 也是今后台风风暴潮重点预防地区; 农田、水域与建设用地是沿海地区最易遭受风暴潮增水淹没的3种土地利用类型。
Coastal area is not only an important center of population, economic and social development of a country but also where natural disaster happens frequently. Based on the typhoon-induced storm surge data from 1989 to 2008, the SRTM3 DEM data, the county district data of 2009, 100 meter grid land-use data of 2005, square kilometer population and GDP data of 2003 of China’s coastal areas, the authors analyze the vulnerability of typhoon-induced storm surge to China’s coastal areas on rising sea level background. The authors use linear regression method to predict sea level rise, use regression method to predict the recurrence period of storm surge and the heights of climax tides, use altitude-area method to mark the area of inundated land, and use Geo-statistics method to show area, population and GDP of each vulnerable district. The results indicate that the Zhujiang River Delta, the Changjiang Delta, alluvial plain north of the Changjiang River in Jiangsu province, Laizhou Bay, Huanghe Delda, Bohai Bay and Liaodong Bay would be seriously influenced by the storm surges. So, much more attention should be paid to these areas in the near further. Agriculture land, water, and construction land are the most likely influenced land use by storm surges.
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