海洋水文学

钦州湾台风浪的多年一遇极值推算

  • 江丽芳 ,
  • 尹毅 ,
  • 齐义泉 ,
  • 张志旭
展开
  • 1. 热带海洋环境国家重点实验室(中国科学院南海海洋研究所), 广东 广州 510301; 2.中国科学院院研究生院, 北京 100049; 3. 国家海洋局南海分局预报中心, 广东 广州 510301
江丽芳(1983—),女,福建省龙岩市人,在读博士研究生,目前从事海浪和台风数值模拟。

收稿日期: 2010-12-27

  修回日期: 2011-03-07

  网络出版日期: 2012-10-24

基金资助

国家重点基础研究发展计划(“973”计划)项目(2011CB013701); 国家高技术研究发展计划(“863”计划)项目(2008AA09A404-3)

The extreme wave parameters in the Qinzhou Bay during typhoon passages

  • JIANG Li-Fang ,
  • YIN Yi ,
  • JI Xi-Quan ,
  • ZHANG Zhi-Xu
Expand
  • 1. State Key Laboratory of Tropical Oceanography (South China Sea Institute of Oceanology, Chinese Academy of Sciences), Guangzhou 510301, China; 2. Graduate University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China;

Received date: 2010-12-27

  Revised date: 2011-03-07

  Online published: 2012-10-24

摘要

利用WAVEWATCH Ⅲ(WW3)和SWAN海浪模式模拟了1949—2005年间对钦州湾海域影响较大的台风浪。以模拟结果为基础, 利用皮尔逊Ⅲ(P-Ⅲ)频率适线法推算了钦州湾湾外深水的累积频率波高和平均波周期(Tm)的多年一遇极值, 同时模拟了其间在百年一遇高潮水位条件下的台风浪, 以及在百年一遇高潮水位、百年一遇风暴潮增水共同作用下对钦州湾影响较大的台风产生的波浪场。使用P-Ⅲ法推算了在极端天气下, 钦州湾湾内统计点的累积波高和平均波周期的多年一遇极值。研究结果表明, 由于湾内浅滩较多, 波浪在传播过程中水体底部摩擦使能量耗损明显, 所以湾内波高较小, 湾口处的波高大于内湾处的波高。近岸海区的波浪耗散、破碎等物理过程比较强烈, 因此近岸统计点C1处的波高极值最小, 其最大波高向岸边快速减弱并沿东向传播。在极端天气情况下,波浪在传播过程中发生破碎, 波高衰减显著。

本文引用格式

江丽芳 , 尹毅 , 齐义泉 , 张志旭 . 钦州湾台风浪的多年一遇极值推算[J]. 热带海洋学报, 2012 , 31(4) : 8 -16 . DOI: 10.11978/j.issn.1009-5470.2012.04.002

Abstract

This study uses the WAVEWATCH-Ⅲ(WW3)and SWAN to simulate typhoon waves, which have greater influence on the Qinzhou Bay, The simulations are for the period during 1949 2005. Based on the simulation, the authors the Pearson Ⅲ (P-Ⅲ) method to calculate the extreme wave parameters for return periods in deep water outside the Qinzhou Bay. They also simulate the typhoon waves that have greater influence on the Qinzhou Bay under the condition of high tide with return period of 100 years and under the condition of high tide with return period of 100 years plus storm surge with return period of 100 years in the Qinzhou Bay. The P-Ⅲ is again used to calculate the extreme wave parameters for the return periods of the statistical points in the inner Qinzhou Bay in these simulations. The result shows that because of many shallow basins in the Qinzhou Bay, the wave energy is lost significantly due to the bottom friction during the wave propagation, the wave height in the bay mouth is bigger than that in the inner Bay, The physical processes including the wave dissipation and wave transformation are more intense in the inner Qinzhou Bay. The statistical point C1 is near the shore, so its wave parameter is the smallest. The maximum wave height rapidly weakens shoreward and spreads along the eastern shoreline. Under the condition of extreme weather, the ocean wave is breaking and the wave height is damped significantly during the wave propagation process.

参考文献


刘月红. 钦州湾波浪条件数值模拟研究[J]. 港工技术, 2007, 10(5): 8-16.
冯芒, 沙文钰, 朱首贤. 近岸海浪几种数值计算模型的比较[J]. 海洋预报, 2003, 20(1): 52-59.
李树华, 夏华永, 陈明剑. 广西近海水文及水位动力环境研究[M]. 北京: 海洋出版社, 2001: 67-71.
TOLMAN H L, BALASUBRAMANIYAN B, BURROUGHS L D, et al. Development and implementation of wind generated ocean surface wave models at NCEP [J]. Weather and Forecasting, 2002, 17 (2) : 311-333.
TOLMAN H L. User manual and system documentation of WACEWATCH Ⅲ version 2. 22[R]. Washington, USA: NOAA/NWS/NCEP, 2002: 1-139.
TOLMAN H L. Validation of a new global wave forecast system at NCEP [M]. Washington, USA: American Society of Civil Engineers, 1998: 777-786.
WINGEART K M, REILLY W C, HERBERS T H C, et al. Validation of operational global wave prediction models with spectral buoy data[M]. Washington, USA: American Society of Civil Engineers, 2001: 590-599 .
RIS R C, HOLTHUIJSEN L H, BOOIJ N. A third-generation wave model for coastal regions 2.Verfication[J]. Journal of Geophysical Research, 1999, 104(C4): 7667-7681.
ROGERS W E, KAIHATU, J M, HSU L, et al. Forecasting and hindcasting waves with the SWAN model in the Southern California Bight[J]. Coastal Engineering, 2007, 54: 1-15.
TOLMAN H L. The numerical model WAVEWATCH: A third generation model for the hindcasting of wind waves on tides in shelf seas[R]//Communication on hydraulic and geotechnical engineering. Delhi: Delhi University of Technology., 1989, Report No.89-2.
HOLTHUIJSEN L H, TOLMAN H L. Effects of the gulf stream on ocean waves[J]. Journal of Geophysical. Research, 1991, 96(C7): 12755–12771.
TOLMAN H L. Effects of numerics on the physics in a third-generation wind-wave model[J]. Journal of Physical Oceanography, 1992, 22: 1095-1111.
BOOIJ N, HOLTHUIJSEN L H, RIS R C. The SWAN wave model for shallow water[C]// Proceeding of 24th international conference on coastal engineering. Orlando, 1996: 668-676.
BOOIJ N, RIS R C, HOLTHUUSEN L H. A third-generation wave model for coastal region.Part Ⅰ: Model description and validation[J]. J. Geophys.Res, 1999, 104(C4): 7649-7666.
张志旭, 齐义泉, 施平, 等. 波致应力对台风天气下南海上层海流的影响分析[J]. 热带海洋学报, 2007, 26(1): 1-8.
文圣长, 余宙文. 海浪理论与计算原理[M]. 北京: 科学出版社, 1985: 127-141.
高山, 丁平兴, 朱首贤. WaveWatch的操作系统移植及其与SWAN嵌套接口的改进[J]. 海洋科学进展, 2006, 24(2): 228-237.
KALNAY E, KANAMITSU M, KUSTKER R, et al. The NCEP/ NCAR 40-year reannalisis project[J]. Bull Am Meteorol Soc, 1996, 77(3): 437-471.
JOSEY S A, KENT E C, TAYLOR P K. Wind stress forcing of the ocean in the SOC climatology: comparisons with the NCEP-NCAR, ECMWF, UWM/COADS, and Hellerman and Rosenstein Datasets[J]. Journal of Physical Oceanography, 2002, 32: 1993-2019.
HOLLAND G J. An analytic model of the wind and pressure profiles in hurricanes[J]. Mon Wea Rev, 1980, 108: 421-427.
么枕生. 气候统计[M]. 北京: 气象出版社, 1991: 124-131.
史勇军, 吴忠良, 白玲. 用皮尔逊检验分析年度地震趋势预测结果[J]. 中国科学院研究生院学报, 2004, 21(2): 248-253.
交通部第一航务工程勘察设计院. 海港水文规范[S]. 北京:人民交通出版社, 2004: 4-50.
董胜, 孔令双. 海洋工程环境概论[M]. 青岛:中国海洋大学出版社, 2005: 43-49.
韩树宗, 王海龙, 郭佩芳. 利用卫星高度计资料进行多年一遇极值波高的方法研究[J]. 青岛海洋大学学报, 2003, 33(5): 657-664
PAN J. Discussion on long series distribution of yearly maximum waves[J]. Ocean Engineering, 1983, 2 (1): 9-37.
潘锦娥. 年极值重现期波高的探讨[J]. 海洋工程, 1983, (2): 29-37.
HU J, JIANG H. The research on forecasting climate extreme value by Gumbell method[J]. Journal of Ocean University of Qingdao, 1993, 23(1): 43-51.
宋运法, 尹毅, 王昭正. 广西防城港核电报告[R]. 广州: 中国科学院南海海洋研究所, 2010: 1-378.
文章导航

/