基于1992年10月至2009年11月卫星观测的海表高度(SSH)时间序列数据, 应用增长型分级自组织映射(GHSOM)人工神经网络方法研究南海北部和西太平洋SSH和中尺度涡旋的变化, 识别出该海域SSH的季节和年际变化信号。分析表明, 流经吕宋海峡的黑潮分支在冷季入侵南海北部, 同时在吕宋岛西北海域出现一个强烈的气旋式涡旋, 表层黑潮的入侵与跨过吕宋海峡南北的经向压力梯度密切相关。黑潮的非入侵事件主要出现在暖季。春秋季节作为两个事件的过渡期, 环流结构复杂, 由GHSOM的第2层特征图进一步进行分类识别。黑潮入侵事件和非入侵事件发生的百分比分别为24.57%和27.53%, 过渡模态的百分比为47.87%。当入侵南海事件发生时, 南海北部表层环流流态相对简单, 主要为气旋环流控制南海北部, 吕宋海峡表层海流是否入侵南海, 与南海北部中尺度涡旋特别是吕宋岛西北的气旋式涡的变化关系密切; 反之, 在非入侵事件发生时, 南海北部出现多涡结构, 环流流态复杂, 表明吕宋海峡海流入侵南海对南海北部环流也有重要调整作用。除季节尺度变化外, 年际时间尺度变化信号也十分显著。在1994—1995、1997—1998和2002—2003年期间, 表层黑潮入侵南海北部的事件要显著多于其他年份, 然而入侵事件在1998—2001年和2006—2009年时间段明显减少, 非入侵事件增加。应用欧氏距离定义的模态2的时间发展序列与Niño3.4指数序列延迟相关。
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