检索
E-mail
RSS

作者投稿 主编审稿 专家审稿 远程编辑

热带海洋学报 >

2019 , Vol. 38 >Issue 1: 35 - 42

DOI: https://doi.org/10.11978/2018037

海洋气象学

我国南海沿海台风及暴潮灾害趋势分析

  • 殷成团 ,
  • 张金善 ,
  • 熊梦婕 ,
  • 徐俊晖
展开
  • 1. 南京水利科学研究院, 江苏 南京 210024;
    2. 水利部应对气候变化研究中心, 江苏 南京 210024
殷成团(1992—), 男, 江苏省连云港市人, 硕士研究生, 主要从事海岸工程研究。E-mail: yinchengtuan@163.com

收稿日期: 2018-04-09

  修回日期: 2018-06-29

  网络出版日期: 2019-01-16

基金资助

国家重点研发计划(2018YFC0407503.2016YFC1402000)

收起

Trend analysis of typhoon and storm surge disaster on the South China Sea coast of China

  • YIN Chengtuan ,
  • ZHANG Jinshan ,
  • XIONG Mengjie ,
  • XU Junhui
Expand
  • 1. Nanjing Hydraulic Research Institute, Nanjing 210024, China;
    2. Research Center of Climate Change, Ministry of Water Resources the People's Republic of China, Nanjing 210024, China

Received date: 2018-04-09

  Revised date: 2018-06-29

  Online published: 2019-01-16

Supported by

National Key Research and Development Plan (2018YFC0407503.2016YFC1402000)

Fold

摘要

利用中国气象局上海台风研究所(CMA)和国家海洋局(SOA)数据资料, 对南海沿海台风活动(1949—2016)和风暴潮灾害趋势(1989—2016)进行了统计分析。结果表明, 南海地区台风年登陆频数整体上呈微弱减少趋势, 但强台风影响及强度呈加强趋势; 1990年代中期台风登陆频数出现显著突变, 粤东地区受高强度台风的影响变得频繁, 粤西地区从2007年开始台风登陆强度逐年增强; 研究区域内台风强度分布一致性较好。文章还总结了典型的热带气旋路径, 分析了不同入射角范围的台风在强度和地区分布上占比的变化规律, 指出近年来中国南海沿海地区年强台风暴潮灾害发生频数增多, 年最大风暴潮等级有增大趋势。

关键词： 台风; 风暴潮; 频数; 强度; 入射角

本文引用格式

殷成团 , 张金善 , 熊梦婕 , 徐俊晖 . 我国南海沿海台风及暴潮灾害趋势分析[J]. 热带海洋学报, 2019 , 38(1) : 35 -42 . DOI: 10.11978/2018037

Abstract

Based on the analysis of data obtained from the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) (1949-2016) and State Oceanic Administration (SOA) (1989-2016), the trend of tropical cyclone and storm surge disaster along the northern South China Sea was examined in this study. The result indicated that the annual frequency of typhoons had been decreasing slightly but the influence of powerful typhoons and typhoon intensity showed a rising tendency. The frequency of landfall typhoons had experienced significant transformation in the mid-90s. Eastern Guangdong was frequently affected by high-intensity typhoons, and typhoon intensity in western Guangdong had increased year by year since 2007. Typhoon intensity gave the accordant distribution in the four study areas. Four typical paths of storm surge were summarized, and variations of intensity and regional distributions of typhoons with different incidence angle ranges were also analyzed in the study. We found that both the frequency of strong storm surge disaster and the level of annual maximum storm surge had increasing trends along South China coast in recent years.

Key words： typhoon; storm surge; frequency; intensity; angle of incidence

参考文献

[1] 陈联寿, 丁一汇, 1979. 西太平洋台风概论[M]. 北京: 科学出版社: 22-26 (in Chinese).
[2] 陈世发, 2016. ENSO对韶关市1951—2013年降雨侵蚀力影响研究[J]. 地理科学, 36(10): 1573-1580.
CHEN SHIFA, 2016. Impact of ENSO on rainfall erosivity in Shaoguan city during 1951-2013[J]. Scientia Geographica Sinica, 2016, 36(10): 1573-1580 (in Chinese with English Abstract).
[3] 董克勤, 齐树芬, 1990. 赤道东太平海温与西太平洋台风频数年际变化的关系[J]. 海洋学报, 12(4): 505-509 (in Chinese).
[4] 高建华, 朱晓东, 朱大奎, 等, 1999. 台风风暴潮对我国沿海地区的影响及其防御对策[J]. 海洋通报, 18(3): 14-19.
GAO JIANHUA, ZHU XIAODONG, ZHU DAKUI, et al, 1999. The impact of typhoons storm surge disaster on China coast and disaster defensive countermeasures[J]. Marine Science Bulletin, 18(3): 14-19 (in Chinese with English Abstract).
[5] 郭洪涛, 1991. 我国潮灾灾度评估初探[J]. 南京大学学报, 5: 18-22.
GUO HONGTAO, 1991. Preliminary study of storm surge disaster assessment in China[J]. Journal of Nanjing University: Natural Sciences, 5: 18-22 (in Chinese with English Abstract).
[6] 国家海洋局, 2015. 风暴潮灾害风险评估和区划技术导则[S]. 北京: 国家海洋局: 14-15 (in Chinese).
[7] 何敏, 宋文玲, 陈兴芳, 1999. 厄尔尼诺和反厄尔尼诺事件与西北太平洋台风活动[J]. 热带气象学报, 15(1): 18-26.
HE MIN, SONG WENLING, CHEN XINGFANG, 1999. Typhoon activity in the northwest pacific in relation to El Nino/LA Nina events[J]. Journal of Tropical Meteorology, 15(1): 18-26 (in Chinese with English Abstract).
[8] 侯建华, 代滇, 龚美玲, 等, 2018. 厄尔尼诺与南方涛动事件对皖西地区降水的影响[J]. 科学技术与工程, 18(5): 150-155.
HOU JIANHUA, DAI DIAN, GONG MEILING, et al, 2018. The impact of Ep Nino-southern Oscillation events on the precipitation in west Anhui[J]. Science Technology and Engineering, 18(5): 150-155 (in Chinese with English Abstract).
[9] 胡娅敏, 宋丽莉, 刘爱君, 等, 2008. 近58年登陆我国热带气旋的气候特征分析[J]. 中山大学学报(自然科学版), 47(5): 115-121.
HU YAMIN, SONG LILI, LIU AIJUN, et al, 2008. Analysis of the climatic features of landfall tropical cyclones in China during the past 58 Years[J]. Acta Scientiarum Naturalium Universitatis Sunyatseni, 47(5): 115-121 (in Chinese with English Abstract).
[10] 李洪才, 王永信, 林少奕, 2004. 广东沿海台风风暴潮可视化预报系统[J]. 海洋预报, 21(4): 81-87.
LI HONGCAI, WANG YONGXIN, LIN SHAOYI, 2004. Visible forecasting system on storm surge along Guangdong coast[J]. Marine Forecasts, 21(4): 81-87 (in Chinese with English Abstract).
[11] 李勋, 赵声蓉, 李泽椿, 等, 2010. 1977—2007年影响南海的热带气旋强度变化特征[J]. 热带气象学报, 26(3): 330-338.
LI XUN, ZHAO SHENGRONG, LI ZECHUN, et al, 2010. Characteristic summaries of intensity change in tropical cyclones affecting the South China Sea from 1977 to 2007[J]. Journal of Tropical Meteorology, 26(3): 330-338 (in Chinese with English Abstract).
[12] 李英, 陈联寿, 张胜军, 2004. 登陆我国热带气旋的统计特征[J]. 热带气象学报, 20(1): 14-23.
LI YING, CHEN LIANSHOU, ZHANG SHENGJUN, 2004. Statistical characteristics of tropical cyclone making landfalls on China[J]. Journal of Tropical Meteorology, 20(1): 14-23 (in Chinese with English Abstract).
[13] 史键辉, 王名文, 王永信, 等, 2000. 风暴潮和风暴灾害分级问题的探讨[J]. 海洋预报, 17(2): 12-15 (in Chinese).
[14] 王东生, 屈雅, 2007. 西北太平洋和南海热带气旋的气候特征分析[J]. 气象, 33(7): 67-74.
WANG DONGSHENG, QU YA, 2007. Climatic characteristics of tropical cyclones over Northwestern Pacific and South China Sea[J]. Meteorological Monthly, 33(7): 67-74 (in Chinese with English Abstract).
[15] 吴慧, 2005. 影响海南的热带气旋气候特征及其与ENSO的关系[J]. 气象, 31(12): 61-64.
WU HUI.2005. Climatic features of tropical cyclone in Hainan island and its relationship with ENSO[J]. Meteorological Monthly, 31(12): 61-64 (in Chinese with English Abstract).
[16] 肖栋, 李建平, 2007. 全球海表温度场中主要的年代际突变及其模态[J]. 大气科学, 31(5): 839-854.
XIAO DONG, LI JIANPING, 2007. Main decadal abrupt changes and decadal modes in global sea surface temperature field[J]. Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences, 31(5): 839-854 (in Chinese with English Abstract).
[17] 殷明, 肖子牛, 李崇银, 等, 2016. 2015年西北太平洋热带气旋活动特征及强El Nino现象对其影响的初步分析[J]. 气象, 42(9): 1069-1078.
YIN MING, XIAO ZINIU, LI CHONGYIN, et al, 2016. Analysis on features of tropical cyclone activities over the Western North Pacific in 2015 and their variations associated with strong El Nino[J]. Meteorological Monthly, 42(9): 1069-1078 (in Chinese with English Abstract).
[18] 于福江, 董剑希, 叶琳, 2015. 中国风暴潮灾害史料集(1949~2009)[M]. 北京: 海洋出版社(in Chinese).
[19] 袁俊鹏, 江静, 2009. 西北太平洋热带气旋路径及其与海温的关系[J]. 热带气象学报, 25(S1): 69-78.
YUAN JUNPENG, JIANG JING, 2009. The tropical cyclone tracks in the Western North Pacific and their relationship with ocean temperature[J]. Journal of Tropical Meteorology, 25(S1): 69-78 (in Chinese with English Abstract).
[20] 袁媛, 杨辉, 李崇银, 2012. 不同分布型厄尔尼诺事件及对中国次年夏季降水的可能影响[J]. 气象学报, 70(3): 467-478.
YUAN YUAN, YANG HUI, LI CHONGYIN, 2012. Study of El Niño events of different types and their potential impact on the following-summer precipitation in China[J]. Acta Meteorologica Sinica, 70(3): 467-478 (in Chinese with English Abstract).
[21] 朱乾根, 2007. 天气学原理和方法[M]. 4版. 北京: 气象出版社: 508-509 (in Chinese).
[22] AFIFI A A, AZEN S P, 1972. Statistical analysis: a computer oriented approach[M]. New York: Academic Press: 1-366.
[23] EL-SABH M I,1990. Statistical analysis of long-term storm surge data, storm surge: observation and modeling[M]//Proceedings of international symposium on storm surge. Beijing: China Ocean Press: 313-314.
[24] WINSEMIUS H C,AERTS J C J H, VAN BEEK L P H, et al, 2016. Global drivers of future river flood risk[J]. Nature Climate Change, 6(4): 381-385.
[25] YING MING, ZHANG WEI, YU HUI, et al, 2014. An overview of the China meteorological administration tropical cyclone database[J]. Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Technology, 31(2): 287-301.
Options
文章导航

/

〈 〉