CMIP5模式对东太平洋ITCZ偶极子模态模拟能力的评估

doi:10.11978/2020034

热带海洋学报 ›› 2021, Vol. 40 ›› Issue (1): 44-57.doi: 10.11978/2020034CSTR: 32234.14.2020034

CMIP5模式对东太平洋ITCZ偶极子模态模拟能力的评估

李馥孜^1,^2,³(), 郑小童^1,^2,³

1.物理海洋教育部重点实验室, 山东青岛 266100
2.中国海洋大学海洋与大气学院, 山东青岛 266100
3.青岛海洋科学与技术试点国家实验室, 山东青岛 266003

收稿日期:2020-03-28 修回日期:2020-04-19 出版日期:2021-01-10 发布日期:2020-04-24
通讯作者: 李馥孜
作者简介:李馥孜(1993—), 女, 山东省滨州市人, 硕士研究生, 从事海洋-大气相互作用研究。email: lifuzi@ouc.edu.cn
基金资助:
国家重点研发计划项目(2018YFA0605700);国家自然科学基金项目(41975092)

Assessment of eastern Pacific ITCZ dipole mode simulations by CMIP5 models

LI Fuzi^1,^2,³(), ZHENG Xiaotong^1,^2,³

1. Physical Oceanography Laboratory, Qingdao 266100, China
2. College of Oceanic and Atmospheric Sciences, Ocean University of China, Qingdao 266100, China
3. Pilot National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology, Qingdao 266003, China

Received:2020-03-28 Revised:2020-04-19 Online:2021-01-10 Published:2020-04-24
Contact: LI Fuzi
Supported by:
National Key Research and Development Program of China(2018YFA0605700);National Natural Science Foundation of China(41975092)

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

本研究利用第五次国际间耦合模式比较计划(Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5, CMIP5)中的24个模式的工业革命前控制试验(Pre-industrial Control, picontrol)模拟结果, 结合观测资料, 评估了24个CMIP5 模式对东太平洋热带辐合带偶极子(Eastern Pacific ITCZ dipole, EPID)降水模态的模拟能力, 并建立了其与模式对热带太平洋气候态模拟之间的联系。结果表明: 1) 绝大多数模式在北半球春季(2—4月)对EPID模态模拟能力较差, 主要原因在于CMIP5模式对热带辐合带(Intertropical Convergence Zone, ITCZ)的模拟偏差, 其中模拟效果较差的模式在2—4月的气候态降水分布在赤道以南, 且降水普遍偏强; 2) 对各模式的EPID模态选取的季节按照技巧评分最高进行调整后, 大部分模式能较好地模拟出EPID模态的空间分布特点, 技巧评分在0.6以上, 其中模拟效果好的模式(技巧评分大于0.7)中EPID模态出现的月份同时在中东太平洋气候态表现出“双ITCZ”特征, 且多模式集合结果的模拟误差小于绝大多数模式。

关键词: Eastern Pacific ITCZ dipole模态, CMIP5模式, “双ITCZ”现象模拟偏差

Abstract:

Based on the Pre-industrial Control (picontrol) experiments from 24 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) models, we assessed these models’ capability in simulating the eastern Pacific ITCZ dipole (EPID) mode and its linkage with models’ climatological simulation capability. The main results are as follows. (1) Most of the CMIP5 models cannot well reproduce the spatial pattern of the EPID mode in February-April (FMA), because of the common biases of modeled Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), which is mainly located south of the equator during FMA. (2) After seasonal adjustment according to the highest skillscore of EPID mode, the spatial distribution of the EPID mode in most models is more consistent with that in observations. The models with skillscore above 0.7 can simulate the "double ITCZ" climatological precipitation feature during the EPID season. Additionally, the error of the multi-model ensemble (MME) is smaller than that of most CMIP5 models.

Key words: Eastern Pacific ITCZ dipole mode, CMIP5 models, double ITCZ bias

中图分类号:

P732.166

李馥孜, 郑小童. CMIP5模式对东太平洋ITCZ偶极子模态模拟能力的评估[J]. 热带海洋学报, 2021, 40(1): 44-57.

LI Fuzi, ZHENG Xiaotong. Assessment of eastern Pacific ITCZ dipole mode simulations by CMIP5 models[J]. Journal of Tropical Oceanography, 2021, 40(1): 44-57.

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气候模式	研发国家	气候模式	研发国家
ACCESS1-0	澳大利亚(Australia)	IPSL-CM5A-LR	法国(France)
ACCESS1-3	澳大利亚(Australia)	IPSL-CM5A-MR	法国(France)
BCC-CSM1-1	中国(China)	IPSL-CM5B-LR	法国(France)
BNU-ESM	中国(China)	MIROC5	日本(Japan)
CanESM2	加拿大(Canada)	MIROC-ESM	日本(Japan)
CMCC-CM	意大利(Italy)	MIROC-ESM-CHEM	日本(Japan)
GFDL-CM3	美国(USA)	MPI-ESM-LR	德国(Germany)
GFDL-ESM2G	美国(USA)	MPI-ESM-MR	德国(Germany)
GFDL-ESM2M	美国(USA)	MPI-ESM-P	德国(Germany)
GISS-E2-H	美国(USA)	MRI-CGCM3	日本(Japan)
GISS-E2-R	美国(USA)	NorESM1-M	挪威(Norway)
INM-CM4	俄罗斯(Russia)	NorESM1-ME	挪威(Norway)

CMIP5模式对东太平洋ITCZ偶极子模态模拟能力的评估

Assessment of eastern Pacific ITCZ dipole mode simulations by CMIP5 models

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