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热带海洋学报

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基于MaxEnt模型分析全球气候变化对中国沿海带鱼潜在分布的影响

冯战权, 苏冒亮, 杜媛媛, 钟友凌, 张俊彬   

  1. 深圳市海洋生物资源与生态环境重点实验室，深圳大学 生命与海洋科学学院，广东 深圳 518060

  • 收稿日期:2024-12-28 修回日期:2025-03-18 接受日期:2025-03-19
  • 通讯作者: 张俊彬
  • 基金资助:

    深圳市可持续发展专(2023N066); 国家自然科学基金项目(41976108)

MaxEnt Model Predicting Potential Distribution of Trichiurus lepturus in the Coastal Waters of China Under Global Climate Change

FENG Zhanquan, SU Maoliang, DU Yuanyuan, ZHONG Youling, ZHANG Junbin   

  1. Shenzhen Key Laboratory of Marine Bioresource & Eco-Environmental Science, College of Life Sciences and Oceanography, Shenzhen University, Shenzhen 518060

  • Received:2024-12-28 Revised:2025-03-18 Accepted:2025-03-19
  • Contact: ZHANG, Jun-Bin
  • Supported by:
    Sustainable Development Program of Shenzhen (Grant No. 2023N066), National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 41976108)

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摘要： 在全球气候变化的大背景下，物种分布格局的变迁已成为科学界关注的焦点。本研究依据IPCC关于全球气候变化的分析，运用最大熵模型(MaxEnt)与地理信息系统(GIS)技术，对中国沿海带鱼(Trichiurus lepturus)在不同共享社会经济路径(SSPs)情景下的潜在适生区分布进行了深入分析，并识别了影响其分布的关键环境因素。同时，本研究预测了在不同SSPs情景下带鱼未来栖息地的变化趋势。研究数据基于GBIF和FishBase提供的212个有效物种分布记录，以及Bio-ORACLE提供的13个海洋环境变量。模型的准确度通过受试者工作特征曲线(ROC)进行验证，模型的平均曲线下面积(AUC)值为0.913，这表明模型具有出色的预测性能。研究发现，带鱼在我国四大海域均有适宜的栖息地，其中中高适宜分布区占总预测区域的11.96%；温度、叶绿素浓度和初级生产力是影响带鱼分布的关键环境因素，且底层环境变量的贡献普遍高于表层环境变量；未来情景预测显示，随着气候变化，带鱼的适生区总体呈现扩大趋势，在SSP5-8.5情景下扩张最为显著，主要表现为向黄渤海等高纬度区域扩展，而在南海北部湾等低纬度区域则有所收缩。本研究的结果可为中国沿海地区带鱼资源的可持续利用和科学管理提供重要的科学依据。

关键词: 带鱼, 最大熵模型, 潜在栖息地, 全球气候变化, 海洋环境因子

Abstract: This study predicted the potential distribution of Trichiurus lepturus along China's coastal waters under the influence of global climate change, using the MaxEnt model integrated with Geographic Information System (GIS) technoques. Species occurrence data (212 valid points) were obtained from GBIF and FishBase, while environmental variables were sourced from Bio-ORACLE. Model performance was evaluated using the Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve, with a high accurracy (0.913) of Area Under the Curve (AUC). Our results indicated that suitable habitats for T. lepturus are distributed across China's four major marine regions, with medium to high suitability areas accounting for 11.96% of the total predicted area. Temperature, chlorophyll concentration, and primary productivity were identified as the most influential factors affecting distribution. The projection model under different SSP scenarios suggested an expansion of suitable habitats with a potential northward shift towards the Yellow Sea and Bohai Sea, while in the waters of SouthChina eg. Beibu Gulf area its distribution will be contracted in the future.

Key words: Trichiurus lepturus, MaxEnt model, potential habitat, global climate change, marine environmental factors