基于广义极值分布的设计波高推算

doi:10.11978/j.issn.1009-5470.2011.03.024

热带海洋学报 ›› 2011, Vol. 30 ›› Issue (3): 24-29.doi: 10.11978/j.issn.1009-5470.2011.03.024cstr: 32234.14.j.issn.1009-5470.2011.03.024

基于广义极值分布的设计波高推算

陈子燊1 , 刘曾美2 , 路剑飞1 , 于吉涛1

1．中山大学水资源与环境系, 广东广州 510275; 2. 华南理工大学水利水电工程系, 广东广州 510640

收稿日期:2009-12-03 修回日期:2010-03-08 出版日期:2011-07-18 发布日期:2011-07-20
作者简介:陈子燊(1952—), 男, 福建省福州市人, 教授, 主要从事海岸河口环境研究。E-mail: eesczs@mail.sysu.edu.cn
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金项目(40576041)

Calculation of design wave heights based on generalized extreme value distribution

CHEN Zi-shen1 , LIU Zeng-mei 2 , LU Jian-fei 1 , YU Ji-tao1

1. Department of Water Resource and Environment, Sun Yet-sun University, Guangzhou 510275, China; 2. Department of Water Conservancy and Hydropower Engineering, South China University of Technology, Guangzhou 510640, China

Received:2009-12-03 Revised:2010-03-08 Online:2011-07-18 Published:2011-07-20

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

简介了广义极值分布函数及其 3 种参数估计方法, 包括极大似然(ML)、线性矩(LM)和间隔最大积(MPS)估计的计算方法。使用广义极值分布函数推算了北部湾涠洲岛海域 3 个波向的年波高极值序列设计波高, 并与 Weibull 分布、Gumbel 分布和皮尔逊Ⅲ型分布的推算结果加以对比。分析表明, 涠洲岛海域极值波高服从于广义极值Ⅲ型分布, 拟合优度检验结果表明广义极值分布能更好地拟合极值波高; MPS 方法是一种优良的参数估计法, 推算的设计波高可作为海岸环境工程设计的首要参考值。

关键词: 广义极值分布, 参数估计, 设计波高, 拟合优度检验, 间隔最大积估计

Abstract:

Three parameter estimation methods on generalized extreme value distribution function were briefly introduced in the paper, which included the maximum-likelihood estimation (ML), the linear moment estimation (LM) and the maximum product of spacing estimation (MPS). The design wave heights based on the generalized extreme value distribution function are calculated by using largest annual wave heights of three wave directions measured in the sea waters near Weizhou Island of Beibu Gulf. And then the results were compared by goodness fit test on design wave heights calculated by the Gumbel dis- tribution, Weibull distribution and Pearson Ⅲ. It indicated that the annual extreme wave heights obeyed the generalized ex- treme value distribution type three. The extreme wave heights were better fitted by generalized extreme value distribution function. The parameter estimation of maximum product of spacing was the best method compared with the others. The design wave heights calculated by MPS parameter estimation of the generalized extreme value distribution can be as the first refer- ence value in the coastal engineering design.

Key words: generalized extreme value distribution, parameter estimation, ?design wave height, ?goodness fit test, maximum product of spacing estimation

陈子燊 ,刘曾美 ,路剑飞 ,于吉涛 . 基于广义极值分布的设计波高推算[J]. 热带海洋学报, 2011, 30(3): 24-29.

CHEN Zi-shen,LIU Zeng-mei ,LU Jian-fei ,YU Ji-tao . Calculation of design wave heights based on generalized extreme value distribution[J]. Journal of Tropical Oceanography, 2011, 30(3): 24-29.

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基于广义极值分布的设计波高推算

Calculation of design wave heights based on generalized extreme value distribution

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