CMIP5模式对近30年沃克环流强度变化模拟的不足及成因分析 *

doi:10.11978/2019002

热带海洋学报 ›› 2019, Vol. 38 ›› Issue (5): 52-67.doi: 10.11978/2019002CSTR: 32234.14.2019002

CMIP5模式对近30年沃克环流强度变化模拟的不足及成因分析 ^*

林书恒^1,²,管玉平^1,^2,⁴(),张邦林³

^1. 热带海洋环境国家重点实验室(中国科学院南海海洋研究所), 广东广州 510301
^2. 中国科学院大学, 北京 100049
^3. 中国气象局广州热带海洋气象研究所区域数值天气预报重点实验室, 广东广州 510640
^4. 珠海区域气候-环境-生态预测预警协同创新中心, 广东珠海 519078

收稿日期:2019-01-01 修回日期:2019-02-27 出版日期:2019-09-20 发布日期:2019-10-09
通讯作者: 管玉平
作者简介:林书恒(1993—), 男, 福建省福州市人, 硕士研究生, 主要从事海气相互作用研究。E-mail: linshh93@163.com
基金资助:
国家重点研发计划项目(2018YFC1506903);国家自然科学重点基金项目(41830538);热带海洋环境国家重点实验室(中国科学院南海海洋研究所)自主项目(LTOZZ1802)

Deficiency of CMIP5 models in simulating changes of Pacific Walker circulation in recent three decades: the role of Sea Surface Temperature ^*

Shuheng LIN^1,²,Yuping GUAN^1,^2,⁴(),Banglin ZHANG³

^1. State Key Laboratory of Tropical Oceanography (South China Sea Institute of Oceanology, Chinese Academy of Sciences), Guangzhou 510301, China
^2. University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
^3. Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Regional Numerical Weather Prediction, Institute of Tropical and Marine Meteorology, Guangzhou 510640, China
^4. Zhuhai Joint Innovative Center for Climate-Environment-Ecosystem, Zhuhai 519078, China

Received:2019-01-01 Revised:2019-02-27 Online:2019-09-20 Published:2019-10-09
Contact: Yuping GUAN
Supported by:
National Key Research and Development Plan Project(2018YFC1506903);National Natural Science Key Fund Project(41830538);Independent project of State Key Laboratory of Tropical Oceanography(South China Sea Institute of Oceanology, Chinese Academy of Sciences)(LTOZZ1802)

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

太平洋沃克环流(Pacific Walker Circulation, PWC)是热带太平洋上空至关重要的大气环流系统, 但其在全球变暖背景下的长期变化仍存在争议, 换而言之, 沃克环流增强或减弱仍是有待回答的科学问题之一。观测表明近30年PWC呈增强趋势, 而气候模式无法得出观测的趋势。文章分析了参加第五次耦合模式比较计划(Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 5, CMIP5)的18个耦合模式模拟的PWC变化。结果表明, 大部分耦合模式能够较好地再现PWC的气候态分布特征, 但不能给出其加强的趋势。究其原因, 主要取决于模式对海表温度(SST)变化的模拟能力, 能模拟出PWC加强的耦合模式, 其模拟的SST趋势分布与观测相近[即类拉尼娜(La Niña)型], 但仍存在一定差异; 而模拟出PWC减弱的耦合模式, 其模拟的SST趋势分布表现为类厄尔尼诺(El Niño)型, 这与观测不符。对于后者, 如果用观测的SST驱动其大气模式却能够模拟出PWC的加强, 从另一方面也说明了SST变化对于PWC长期变化的主导作用。因此, CMIP5模式要想合理地预估PWC在全球变暖背景下的变化, 需要提高对于热带太平洋SST变化的模拟能力。

关键词: 第五次耦合模式比较计划, 沃克环流, 大气环流模式比较计划, 海表面温度趋势分布型

Abstract:

The Pacific Walker circulation (PWC) is the most important atmospheric system over the tropical Pacific Ocean, and the cause of the long-term change of the PWC in response to global warming still remains debatable. The observations consistently indicate that the PWC has significantly strengthened in the past three decades. We examine the changes of the PWC in 18 climate models participated in phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). Most CMIP5 models have produced successful simulations for the climatological spatial distribution features of the PWC, but no one can simulate the trend of significant enhancement of the PWC as observed. The deficiency of the models to simulate the trend of the PWC depends mainly on the capability of the models to simulate changes in sea surface temperature (SST). The trend pattern of SST is similar to that of the observation (i.e., La Niña-like) in the coupled models that simulate a strengthening PWC, but there are still some differences between the two. However, the distribution of SST shows an El Niño-like trend pattern in the coupled models that simulate a weakening PWC, which does not match that of the observation. For the latter models, if the observed SST is used to drive its corresponding atmospheric models, it can simulate the enhancement of the PWC, which fully demonstrates the leading role of SST change in the long-term change of the PWC. Therefore, to reasonably predict the change of the PWC in the context of global warming, the CMIP5 models need to improve their simulation capability for SST changes in the tropical Pacific.

Key words: CMIP5, Walker circulation, AMIP simulation, SST trend pattern

中图分类号:

P732.64

林书恒,管玉平,张邦林. CMIP5模式对近30年沃克环流强度变化模拟的不足及成因分析 ^*[J]. 热带海洋学报, 2019, 38(5): 52-67.

Shuheng LIN,Yuping GUAN,Banglin ZHANG. Deficiency of CMIP5 models in simulating changes of Pacific Walker circulation in recent three decades: the role of Sea Surface Temperature ^*[J]. Journal of Tropical Oceanography, 2019, 38(5): 52-67.

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数据	来源	同化方法	参考文献	时间跨度	空间分辨率
数据	来源	同化方法	参考文献	时间跨度	水平	垂直
20CR	NOAA-CIRES	3D-Var	Compo等(2011)	1871—现在	2°×2°	24层
ERA-Interim	ECMWF	4D-Var	Dee等(2011)	1979—现在	1.5°×1.5°	37层
JRA-55	JMA	4D-Var	Ebita等(2011)	1958—现在	1.25°×1.25°	37层
MERRA	NASA	3D-Var	Rienecker等(2011)	1979—现在	2/3°×1/2°	42层
NCEP-1	NCEP-NCAR	3D-Var	Kalnay等(1996)	1948—现在	2.5°×2.5°	17层
NCEP-2	NCEP-DOE	3D-Var	Kanamitsu等(2002)	1979—现在	2.5°×2.5°	17层

序号	模式	分辨率/(纬度×经度)	所属机构
1	ACCESS1.0	144×192	联邦科学与工业研究组织——气象局(澳大利亚)
2	ACCESS1.3	144×192	联邦科学与工业研究组织——气象局(澳大利亚)
3	BCC-CSM1.1	64×128	北京气候中心——中国气象局(中国)
4	BCC-CSM1.1(m)	160×320	北京气候中心——中国气象局(中国)
5	CCSM4	192×288	美国国家大气研究中心(美国)
6	CMCC-CM	240×480	意大利欧洲-梅迪特拉内奥气候研究中心(意大利)
7	CNRM-CM5	128×156	法国气象局气候变化研究中心(法国)
8	CSIRO Mk3.6.0	96×192	澳大利亚联邦科学和工业研究, 昆士兰气候变化卓越中心(澳大利亚)
9	GFDL CM3	90×144	美国国家海洋和大气管理局地球流体实验室(美国)
10	INM-CM4.0	120×180	俄罗斯数值数学研究所(俄罗斯)
11	IPSL-CM5A-LR	96×96	皮埃尔-西蒙-拉普拉斯研究所(法国)
12	IPSL-CM5A-MR	143×144	皮埃尔-西蒙-拉普拉斯研究所(法国)
13	IPSL-CM5B-LR	96×96	皮埃尔-西蒙-拉普拉斯研究所(法国)
14	MIROC5	128×256	日本气候系统研究中心, 国家环境研究所和前沿气候变化研究中心(日本)
15	MPI-ESM-LR	96×192	马克斯普朗克气象研究所(德国)
16	MPI-ESM-MR	96×192	马克斯普朗克气象研究所(德国)
17	MRI-CGCM3	160×320	日本气象研究所(日本)
18	NorESM1-M	96×144	挪威气候中心(挪威)

CMIP5模式对近30年沃克环流强度变化模拟的不足及成因分析 ^*

Deficiency of CMIP5 models in simulating changes of Pacific Walker circulation in recent three decades: the role of Sea Surface Temperature ^*

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CMIP5模式对近30年沃克环流强度变化模拟的不足及成因分析 *

Deficiency of CMIP5 models in simulating changes of Pacific Walker circulation in recent three decades: the role of Sea Surface Temperature *

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CMIP5模式对近30年沃克环流强度变化模拟的不足及成因分析 ^*

Deficiency of CMIP5 models in simulating changes of Pacific Walker circulation in recent three decades: the role of Sea Surface Temperature ^*