ENSO与IOD对斯里兰卡气温年际变化的差异化影响研究*

doi:10.11978/2025017

热带海洋学报 ›› 2026, Vol. 45 ›› Issue (1): 105-116.doi: 10.11978/2025017CSTR: 32234.14.2025017

ENSO与IOD对斯里兰卡气温年际变化的差异化影响研究^*

林丽茹¹(), 庄伟²()

¹厦门海洋职业技术学院海洋生物学院, 海洋资源保护与生态治理福建省高等学校应用技术工程中心, 厦门市智慧渔业重点实验室, 福建厦门 361100
²厦门大学海洋与地球学院, 福建厦门 361102

收稿日期:2025-02-27 修回日期:2025-03-23 出版日期:2026-01-10 发布日期:2026-01-30
通讯作者: 庄伟。email: wzhuang@xmu.edu.cn
作者简介:
林丽茹(1980—), 女, 高级工程师, 主要从事海洋动力过程及其气候与环境效应研究。email: linliru@xmoc.edu.cn
*感谢中国科学院中国-斯里兰卡联合科教中心为本工作提供的国际合作支持; 感谢哥白尼气候变化服务中心提供气象数据下载; 感谢NOAA物理科学实验室提供ENSO和IOD相关指数的下载; 感谢两位审稿专家对本工作提出的建设性意见
基金资助:
中国科学院国际伙伴计划项目(133244KYSB20200024); 中国科学院国际伙伴计划项目(059GJHZ2023104MI); 福建省自然科学基金计划资助项目(2023J01021); 福建省科技重大专项专题项目(2024YZ040025); 国家自然科学基金项目(42006177)

A study on the differential impacts of ENSO and IOD on the interannual air temperature variability over Sri Lanka^*

LIN Liru¹(), ZHUANG Wei²()

¹School of Marine Biology, Applied Technology Engineering Center of Fujian Provincial Higher Education for Marine Resource Protection and Ecological Governance, Xiamen Key Laboratory of Intelligent Fishery, Xiamen Ocean Vocational College, Xiamen 361100, China
²College of Ocean and Earth Sciences, Xiamen University, Xiamen 361102, China

Received:2025-02-27 Revised:2025-03-23 Online:2026-01-10 Published:2026-01-30
Contact: ZHUANG Wei. email: wzhuang@xmu.edu.cn
Supported by:
International Partnership Program of Chinese Academy of Sciences(133244KYSB20200024); International Partnership Program of Chinese Academy of Sciences(059GJHZ2023104MI); Natural Science Foundation of Fujian Province of China(2023J01021); Fujian Provincial Key Science and Technology Program of China(2024YZ040025); National Natural Science Foundation of China(42006177)

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

以往对斯里兰卡气候年际变化的研究多集中于降水特征, 而对气温的年际变化特征及其气候归因认识不足。本研究基于高分辨率气候再分析数据, 结合热带印度洋-太平洋的年际气候指数, 分析了斯里兰卡地表气温的年际变化特征及其影响因子。结果表明, 斯里兰卡全岛气温在年际尺度上呈现较一致的冷暖变化, 其中中央高地北部地区的变化幅度较大, 而沿海地区的变化幅度较小。偏相关分析的结果显示, 斯里兰卡气温的年际变化受到厄尔尼诺-南方涛动(El Niño and Southern Oscillation, ENSO)的显著调控, 而局地的印度洋偶极子模态(Indian Ocean Dipole, IOD)的影响并不显著。偏回归分析的结果进一步表明, 厄尔尼诺事件期间, 印度洋海盆整体增暖, 并通过持续加热周边大气影响气温; 同时, 热带东南印度洋和孟加拉湾周边地区的短波辐射增强, 陆地升温显著, 进而通过感热交换使近地面大气进一步增暖。相比之下, 正IOD事件所导致的气温变化在东印度洋和孟加拉湾偏冷, 而在西印度洋及阿拉伯海偏暖; 斯里兰卡位于IOD影响的冷暖异常交界处, 因而气温响应信号较弱。上述结果有助于加深对斯里兰卡及周边区域年际气候变率的理解, 并为应对极端高温等气候风险提供了科学参考。

关键词: 斯里兰卡, 气温, 年际变化, 偏相关, 偏回归, 热带气候模态

Abstract:

Previous studies on the interannual climate variability in Sri Lanka have primarily focused on precipitation characteristics, while the understanding of the interannual variability of air temperature and its climatic drivers remains limited. This study analyzes the interannual variability of surface air temperature over Sri Lanka and its influencing factors based on high-resolution climate reanalysis data and interannual climate indices of the tropical Indian-Pacific Ocean. The results indicate that the air temperature across Sri Lanka exhibits relatively consistent interannual fluctuations, with larger amplitude variations north of the central highlands and smaller changes in coastal areas. Partial correlation analysis reveals that the interannual variability of air temperature in Sri Lanka is significantly regulated by the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), while the influence of the local Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is not significant. Further partial regression analysis shows that during El Niño events, the Indian Ocean basin warms as a whole, continuously heating the surrounding atmosphere and affecting air temperature. Meanwhile, enhanced shortwave radiation in the tropical southeastern Indian Ocean and the Bay of Bengal leads to significant land warming, further heating the near-surface air through sensible heat exchange. In contrast, during positive IOD events, the air temperature pattern shows cold anomalies in the eastern Indian Ocean and the Bay of Bengal, and warm anomalies in the western Indian Ocean and the Arabian Sea. As Sri Lanka is located at the transitional zone between these warm and cold anomalies induced by IOD, the net temperature response is relatively weak. These findings enhance the understanding of interannual climate variability in Sri Lanka and its surrounding regions and provide a scientific reference for addressing climate risks such as extreme heat events.

Key words: Sri Lanka, air temperature, interannual variability, partial correlation, partial regression, tropical climate modes

中图分类号:

P732.6

林丽茹, 庄伟. ENSO与IOD对斯里兰卡气温年际变化的差异化影响研究^*[J]. 热带海洋学报, 2026, 45(1): 105-116.

LIN Liru, ZHUANG Wei. A study on the differential impacts of ENSO and IOD on the interannual air temperature variability over Sri Lanka^*[J]. Journal of Tropical Oceanography, 2026, 45(1): 105-116.

图/表 9

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ENSO与IOD对斯里兰卡气温年际变化的差异化影响研究^*

A study on the differential impacts of ENSO and IOD on the interannual air temperature variability over Sri Lanka^*

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ENSO与IOD对斯里兰卡气温年际变化的差异化影响研究*

A study on the differential impacts of ENSO and IOD on the interannual air temperature variability over Sri Lanka*

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ENSO与IOD对斯里兰卡气温年际变化的差异化影响研究^*

A study on the differential impacts of ENSO and IOD on the interannual air temperature variability over Sri Lanka^*