CMIP5/6气候模式对El Niño多样性模拟能力的评估*

doi:10.11978/2022067

热带海洋学报 ›› 2023, Vol. 42 ›› Issue (2): 21-33.doi: 10.11978/2022067CSTR: 32234.14.2022067

所属专题：全球变化专题

CMIP5/6气候模式对El Niño多样性模拟能力的评估^*

王卫强¹^,²(), 张茜娅¹^,³, 徐康¹^,², 李俊灵¹^,³, 苗浩宇¹^,³

1.热带海洋环境国家重点实验室(中国科学院南海海洋研究所), 广东广州 510301
2.南方海洋科学与工程广东省实验室(广州), 广东广州 511458
3.中国科学院大学, 北京 100049

收稿日期:2022-04-07 修回日期:2022-05-24 出版日期:2023-03-10 发布日期:2022-05-24
通讯作者: 王卫强。email: weiqiang.wang@scsio.ac.cn
作者简介:
王卫强(1971—), 男, 河北省邯郸市人, 研究员, 主要从事海洋动力过程和海气相互作用等方面的研究。email: weiqiang.wang@scsio.ac.cn
*感谢中国科学院中国−斯里兰卡联合科教中心。
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金项目(42076020); 自然资源部海洋环境科学与数值模拟重点实验室开放基金项目(2020-ZD-04); 中国科学院青年创新促进会人才专项(2020340); 海南省科技专项(ZDYF2020174); 中国科学院南海海洋研究所南海新星项目(NHXX2018WL0201); 南方海洋科学与工程广东省实验室(广州)人才团队引进重大专项(GML2019ZD0306); 热带海洋环境国家重点实验室(中国科学院南海海洋研究所)自主研究项目(LTOZZ2101)

Assessment of El Niño diversity simulations using CMIP6 and CMIP5 models^*

WANG Weiqiang¹^,²(), ZHANG Xiya¹^,³, XU Kang¹^,², LI Junling¹^,³, MIAO Haoyu¹^,³

1. State Key Laboratory of Tropical Oceanography (South China Sea Institute of Oceanology, Chinese Academy of Sciences), Guangzhou 510301, China
2. Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory (Guangzhou), Guangzhou 511458, China
3. University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China

Received:2022-04-07 Revised:2022-05-24 Online:2023-03-10 Published:2022-05-24
Contact: WANG Weiqiang. email: weiqiang.wang@scsio.ac.cn
Supported by:
National Natural Science Foundation of China(42076020); Open Fund of Key Laboratory of Marine Science and Numerical Modeling, Ministry of Natural Resources(2020-ZD-04); Youth Innovation Promotion Association CAS(2020340); Hainan Province Science and Technology Special Fund(ZDYF2020174); Rising Star Foundation of the South China Sea Institute of Oceanology(NHXX2018WL0201); Key Special Project for Introduced Talents Team of Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory (Guangzhou)(GML2019ZD0306); Independent Research Project Program of State Key Laboratory of Tropical Oceanography(LTOZZ2101)

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

利用第五次和第六次国际间耦合模式比较计划(coupled model intercomparison project, CMIP)中全球气候模式的历史时期和未来增暖情景模拟结果, 结合观测资料, 文章对比评估了23个CMIP6模式和32个CMIP5模式对El Niño多样性的模拟能力, 并预估了东部(eastern Pacific, EP)型和中部(central Pacific, CP)型El Niño对未来全球变暖的响应特征。结果表明, 绝大多数CMIP5/6气候模式能够合理地模拟El Niño的多样性特征, 且CMIP6多模式的模拟性能较CMIP5有明显提升。CMIP6模式不仅减弱了EP型El Niño空间模态模拟的离散性, 而且还显著提高了CP型El Niño空间模态的模拟能力; CMIP5/6多模式基本能够模拟出两类El Niño的季节锁相性特征, 但CP型El Niño衰亡时间较观测明显滞后3个月; 同时CMIP5/6多模式模拟的EP型El Niño强度与观测值较为接近, 但CP型El Niño的振幅却强于观测。在未来全球变暖背景下, CP型El Niño事件的发生频率相对于EP型事件将趋于降低; EP型和CP型El Niño振幅强度随着全球变暖加剧将被增强, 且EP型增强幅度显著强于CP型。

关键词: CMIP5/6气候模式, 东部型El Niño, 中部型El Niño, 全球变暖, 未来预估

Abstract:

Based on the observations and the global climate model simulation outputs of historical run and future warming scenarios from phase 5 and phase 6 of the coupled model intercomparison project (CMIP), we assessed the performance of 23 CMIP6 and 32 CMIP5 models in reproducing El Niño diversity, and then projected the responses of the eastern Pacific (EP) and central Pacific (CP) type of El Niño to global warming. The results show that most CMIP5/6 models can reasonably simulate the characteristics of El Niño diversity, and the simulation performance of CMIP6 models is significantly improved compared with CMIP5 models. Not only do the CMIP6 models weaken the discreteness of the simulated EP El Niño-related spatial patterns, but also significantly improve the simulation ability of the CP El Niño-associated spatial patterns. The CMIP5/6 models can basically simulate the seasonal phase-locking characteristics of the EP and CP El Niño events, however, compared to the observation, the decay time of the simulated CP El Niño is obviously delayed by 3 months. The intensity of EP El Niño simulated by CMIP5/6 is close to the observation, but the counterpart of CP El Niño is stronger than the observation. Under global warming, the frequency of CP El Niño will tend to decrease relative to EP El Niño. The amplitudes of EP and CP El Niño will be enhanced along with the intensification of global warming, and the enhanced amplitude of EP El Niño is greatly stronger than that of CP El Niño.

Key words: CMIP5/6 climate models, Eastern Pacific El Niño, Central Pacific El Niño, global warming, Future projection

王卫强, 张茜娅, 徐康, 李俊灵, 苗浩宇. CMIP5/6气候模式对El Niño多样性模拟能力的评估^*[J]. 热带海洋学报, 2023, 42(2): 21-33.

WANG Weiqiang, ZHANG Xiya, XU Kang, LI Junling, MIAO Haoyu. Assessment of El Niño diversity simulations using CMIP6 and CMIP5 models^*[J]. Journal of Tropical Oceanography, 2023, 42(2): 21-33.

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模式名	研发国家	水平分辨率 (经纬向格点数)	模式名	研发国家	水平分辨率 (经纬向格点数)
ACCESS-CM2	澳大利亚	360 × 300	GFDL-ESM4	美国	720 × 576
ACCESS-ESM1-5	澳大利亚	360 × 300	INM-CM4-8	俄罗斯	360 × 318
AWI-CM-1-1-MR	德国	非结构化网格	INM-CM5-0	俄罗斯	720 × 720
BCC-CSM2-MR	中国	360 × 232	IPSL-CM6A-LR	法国	362 × 332
CAMS-CSM1-0	中国	360 × 200	MIROC6	日本	360 × 256
CanESM5	加拿大	361 × 290	MPI-ESM1-2-HR	德国	802 × 404
CESM2-WACCM	美国	320 × 384	MPI-ESM1-2-LR	德国	256 × 220
EC-Earth3	欧洲10国	362 × 292	MRI-ESM2-0	日本	360 × 364
EC-Earth3-Veg	欧洲10国	362 × 292	NESM3	中国	362 × 292
FGOALS-f3-L	中国	360 × 218	NorESM2-LM	挪威	360 × 384
FIO-ESM-2-0	中国	320 × 384	NorESM2-MM	挪威	360 × 384
GFDL-CM4	美国	1440 × 1080

模式名	研发国家	水平分辨率 (经纬向格点数)	模式名	研发国家	水平分辨率 (经纬向格点数)
ACCESS1-0	澳大利亚	360 × 300	GFDL-ESM2M	美国	360 × 200
ACCESS1-3	澳大利亚	360 × 300	GISS-E2-H	美国	360 × 180
bcc-csm1-1	中国	360 × 232	GISS-E2-R	美国	288 × 180
bcc-csm1-1-m	中国	360 × 232	HadGEM2-AO	英国	360 × 216
CanESM2	加拿大	256 × 192	HadGEM2-CC	英国	360 × 215
CCSM4	美国	320 × 384	HadGEM2-ES	英国	360 × 215
CESM1-BGC	美国	320 × 384	inmcm4	俄罗斯	360 × 340
CESM1-CAM5	美国	320 × 384	IPSL-CM5A-LR	法国	182 × 149
CMCC-CM	意大利	182 × 149	IPSL-CM5A-MR	法国	182 × 149
CMCC-CMS	意大利	182 × 149	IPSL-CM5B-LR	法国	182 × 149
CNRM-CM5	法国	362 × 292	MIROC5	日本	256 × 224
CSIRO-Mk3-6-0	澳大利亚	192 × 189	MPI-ESM-LR	德国	256 × 220
FGOALS-g2	中国	360 × 196	MPI-ESM-MR	德国	802 × 404
FIO-ESM	中国	320 × 384	MRI-CGCM3	日本	360 × 368
GFDL-CM3	美国	360 × 200	NorESM1-M	挪威	320 × 384
GFDL-ESM2G	美国	360 × 210	NorESM1-ME	挪威	320 × 384

CMIP5/6气候模式对El Niño多样性模拟能力的评估^*

Assessment of El Niño diversity simulations using CMIP6 and CMIP5 models^*

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CMIP5/6气候模式对El Niño多样性模拟能力的评估*

Assessment of El Niño diversity simulations using CMIP6 and CMIP5 models*

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CMIP5/6气候模式对El Niño多样性模拟能力的评估^*

Assessment of El Niño diversity simulations using CMIP6 and CMIP5 models^*