北半球热带中太平洋与印度洋海表温度梯度对夏季西北太平洋热带气旋生成频数变化的影响

doi:10.11978/2018136

热带海洋学报 ›› 2019, Vol. 38 ›› Issue (5): 42-51.doi: 10.11978/2018136CSTR: 32234.14.2018136

北半球热带中太平洋与印度洋海表温度梯度对夏季西北太平洋热带气旋生成频数变化的影响

方珂,余锦华()

南京信息工程大学气象灾害教育部重点实验室/气候与环境变化国际合作联合实验室/气象灾害预报预警与评估协同创新中心, 南京江苏 210044

收稿日期:2018-12-12 修回日期:2019-04-04 出版日期:2019-09-20 发布日期:2019-10-09
通讯作者: 余锦华
作者简介:方珂(1994—), 男, 浙江省杭州市人, 在读硕士研究生, 主要研究台风气候。E-mail: 20161211122@nuist.edu.cn
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金(41575083);国家自然科学基金(41730961)

Influence of sea surface temperature gradients in the tropical Pacific and Indian oceans of the Northern Hemisphere on the frequency of tropical cyclone generation in the western North Pacific in summer

Ke FANG,Jinhua YU()

Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disasters, Ministry of Education / Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environment Change / Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing 210044, China

Received:2018-12-12 Revised:2019-04-04 Online:2019-09-20 Published:2019-10-09
Contact: Jinhua YU
Supported by:
National Natural Science Foundation of China(41575083);National Natural Science Foundation of China(41730961)

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

基于1951—2018年哈德里中心海温资料、美国气象环境预报中心和美国国家大气研究中心再分析资料和第四代欧洲中心汉堡模式, 针对1994年、2018年等西北太平洋热带气旋(TC)生成异常多的年份, 研究了引起TC增加的海表温度异常(SSTA)模态及其影响机制。结果表明, 北半球热带中太平洋增暖与印度洋变冷是夏季西北太平洋TC生成频数增加的主要原因, 北大西洋负三极型式SSTA促使TC生成的进一步增加。热带中太平洋增暖与印度洋冷却在菲律宾以东激发出西风异常和气旋性环流异常。北大西洋负三极型式SSTA在我国南海、菲律宾至东南沿岸激发出气旋性环流异常。前者在西北太平洋中部, 后者在南海产生有利于TC生成的局地环境。1994年和2018年夏季热带中太平洋出现暖SSTA、印度洋为冷SSTA、北大西洋呈现负三极型式SSTA, 西北太平洋TC生成频数极端增多。近30年来, 当出现热带中太平洋增暖和印度洋冷却时, 北大西洋表现出比1989年以前更强的负三极型式SSTA, 使西北太平洋TC生成频数和北半球热带印度洋-太平洋SSTA梯度的线性相关更显著。

关键词: 热带气旋生成频数, 印度洋-太平洋海表温度异常梯度, 北大西洋三极型式海表温度异常

Abstract:

Based on the Hadley Center sea surface temperature (SST) data, NECP/NCAR reanalysis data from 1951 to 2018 and numerical model (ECHAM4) simulation outputs, in view of the unusually large number of tropical cyclones (TCs) in the western North Pacific such as in 1994 and 2018, the modalities of SST anomalies (SSTA) and their influence mechanism were studied, in terms of their impacts on the increase of TC generation. It is suggested that the warming of the central tropical Pacific and the cooling of the Indian Ocean in the Northern Hemisphere are the main reasons for the increase of TC generated in the western North Pacific in summer, and the North Atlantic negative tripolar type of SSTA leads to further increase in the TC generated. The central tropical Pacific warming and the Indian Ocean cooling produce anomalous westerly wind and cyclonic circulation anomalies in the east of the Philippines. The North Atlantic negative tripolar type of SSTA excites cyclonic circulation anomalies from the South China Sea and the Philippine Seas to the southeast coast waters of China. The former in the central Pacific Ocean and the latter in the South China Sea create local environments conducive to TC generation. In the summers of 1994 and 2018, the central tropical Pacific SSTAs were warm, the Indian Ocean SSTAs were cold, and the North Atlantic showed negative tripolar type of SSTA. The number of TC generated in the western Pacific Ocean increased greatly. In the past 30 years, when the central tropical Pacific warmed up and the Indian Ocean cooled down, the North Atlantic showed a stronger negative tripolar type of SSTA than that before 1989, the linear correlation between the Pacific Northwest TC generation and Indian Ocean-Pacific SSTA gradients was more significant.

Key words: tropical cyclone genesis number, Indian Ocean-Pacific SSTA gradient, North Atlantic tripolar type of sea surface temperature anomaly

中图分类号:

P732.33

方珂,余锦华. 北半球热带中太平洋与印度洋海表温度梯度对夏季西北太平洋热带气旋生成频数变化的影响[J]. 热带海洋学报, 2019, 38(5): 42-51.

Ke FANG,Jinhua YU. Influence of sea surface temperature gradients in the tropical Pacific and Indian oceans of the Northern Hemisphere on the frequency of tropical cyclone generation in the western North Pacific in summer[J]. Journal of Tropical Oceanography, 2019, 38(5): 42-51.

图/表 8

图1

图2

图3

图4

图5

图6

表1

图7

参考文献 22

[1]	李丹荔 , 1988. 南海形成的台风数与北太平洋SST关系分析[J]. 热带海洋, 7(4): 81- 82, 85-87.
	LI DANLI , 1988. Correlation between annual frequency of typhoon formed on South China sea and the surface sea temperature in the North Pacific Ocean[J]. Tropical Oceanography, 7(4): 81- 82, 85-87 (in Chinese with English abstract).
[2]	李刚, 李崇银, 江晓华 , 等, 2015. 1900—2009年全球海表温度异常的时空变化特征分析[J]. 热带海洋学报, 34(4):12-22. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1009-5470.2015.04.002
	LI GANG, LI CHONGYIN, JIANG XIAOHUA , et al, 2015. Analysis of spatiotemporal variability of global sea surface temperature anomalies during 1900-2009[J]. Journal of Tropical Oceanography, 34(4):12-22 (in Chinese with English abstract). doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1009-5470.2015.04.002
[3]	李琰, 王庆元, 李欢 , 等, 2014. 前期热带太平洋、印度洋持续性海温异常事件对菲律宾低层大气环流的影响[J]. 热带海洋学报, 33(1):36-43. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1009-5470.2014.01.005
	LI YAN, WANG QINGYUAN, LI HUAN , et al, 2014. Impacts of long lasting SST anomaly events in the tropical Pacific and Indian Oceans on anomalous Philippine Sea anticyclone[J]. Journal of Tropical Oceanography, 33(1):36-43 (in Chinese with English abstract). doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1009-5470.2014.01.005
[4]	刘钦燕, 周文 , 2010. 西北太平洋台风数目与海洋热含量的年代际关系分析[J]. 热带海洋学报, 29(6):8-14.
	LIU QINYAN, ZHOU WEN , 2010. Relationship between typhoon activity in the Northwestern Pacific and the upper-ocean heat content on Interdecadal time scale[J]. Journal of Tropical Oceanography, 29(6):8-14 (in Chinese with English abstract).
[5]	叶英, 董波 , 1997. 1994/1995年西北太平洋热带气旋气候特征与热带海洋和大气环流分析[J]. 海洋预报, 14(2):44-52.
	YE YING, DONG BO , 1997. Analysis of the Northwest Pacific tropical cyclones climatic characteristics and the tropical ocean and atmospheric circulation during 1994/1995[J]. Marine Forecasts, 14(2):44-52 (in Chinese with English abstract).
[6]	晏红明, 李清泉, 袁媛 , 等, 2013. 夏季西北太平洋大气环流异常及其与热带印度洋—太平洋海温变化的关系[J]. 地球物理学报, 56(8):2542-2557. doi: 10.6038/cjg20130805
	YAN HONGMING, LI QINGQUAN, YUAN YUAN , et al, 2013. Circulation variation over western North Pacific and its association with tropical SSTA over Indian Ocean and the Pacific[J]. Chinese Journal of Geophysics, 56(8):2542-2557 (in Chinese with English abstract). doi: 10.6038/cjg20130805
[7]	周旭, 余锦华, 王志福 , 2013. 西北太平洋热带气旋频数的气候变化及其与环境要素间的联系[J]. 气象科学, 33(1):43-50.
	ZHOU XU, YU JINHUA, WANG ZHIFU , 2013. The climate change of tropical cyclone frequency and its relationship with environment factors in the western North Pacific[J]. Journal of the Meteorological Sciences, 33(1):43-50 (in Chinese with English abstract).
[8]	CHEN LIN, LI T, WANG BIN , et al, 2017. Formation mechanism for 2015/16 super El Niño[J]. Scientific Reports, 7(1):2975.
[9]	DESER C, ALEXANDER M A, XIE SHANGPING , et al, 2010. Sea surface temperature variability: patterns and mechanisms[J]. Annual Review of Marine Science, 2:115-143.
[10]	DU YAN, YANG LEI, XIE SHANGPING , 2011. Tropical Indian ocean influence on northwest pacific tropical cyclones in summer following strong El Niño[J]. Journal of Climate, 24(1):315-322.
[11]	HONG C C, LI Y H, LI T , et al, 2011. Impacts of central Pacific and eastern Pacific El Niños on tropical cyclone tracks over the western North Pacific[J]. Geophysical Research Letters, 38(16):L16712.
[12]	LI BO, ZHOU TIANJUN , 2011. El Niño-Southern Oscillation- related principal interannual variability modes of early and late summer rainfall over East Asia in sea surface temperature-driven atmospheric general circulation model simulations[J]. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 116(D14):D14118.
[13]	SUI C H, CHUNG P H, LI T , 2007. Interannual and interdecadal variability of the summertime western North Pacific subtropical high[J]. Geophysical Research Letters, 34(11):L11701.
[14]	WANG BIN, WU RENGUANG, FU XIOUHUA , 2000. Pacific-East Asian teleconnection: how does ENSO affect East Asian climate?[J]. Journal of Climate, 13(9):1517-1536.
[15]	WANG BIN, WU RENGUANG, LI T , 2003. Atmosphere-warm ocean interaction and its impacts on Asian-Australian monsoon variation[J]. Journal of Climate, 16(8):1195-1211.
[16]	WANG BIN, XIANG BAOQIANG, LEE J Y , 2013. Subtropical high predictability establishes a promising way for monsoon and tropical storm predictions[J]. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 110(8):2718-2722.
[17]	WU BO, LI T, ZHOU TIANJUN , 2010. Relative contributions of the Indian Ocean and local SST anomalies to the maintenance of the western North Pacific anomalous anticyclone during the El Niño decaying summer[J]. Journal of Climate, 23(11):2974-2986.
[18]	XIE SHANGPING, HU KAIMING, HAFNER J , et al, 2009. Indian ocean capacitor effect on indo-western pacific climate during the summer following El Niño[J]. Journal of Climate, 22(3):730-747.
[19]	YU JINHUA, CHEN CHENG, LI T , et al, 2016. Contribution of major SSTA modes to the climate variability of tropical cyclone genesis frequency over the western North Pacific[J]. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 142(695):1171-1181.
[20]	ZHAN RUIFEN, WANG YUQING, LIU QINYU , 2017. Salient differences in tropical cyclone activity over the western North Pacific between 1998 and 2016[J]. Journal of Climate, 30(24):9979-9997.
[21]	ZHANG RENHE, SUMI A, KIMOTO M , 1996. Impact of El Niño on the East Asian monsoon: a diagnostic study of the ’86/87 and ’91/92 events[J]. Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan, 74(1):49-62 (in Japanese with English abstract).
[22]	ZHOU TIANJUN, WU BO, WANG BIN , 2009. How well do atmospheric general circulation models capture the leading modes of the Interannual variability of the Asian-Australian monsoon?[J]. Journal of Climate, 22(5):1159-1173.

试验名称	气候态海温范围	添加异常海温范围
控制试验	0°—360°, 90°S—90°N	无
TPI-RUN	0°—360°, 90°S—90°N	60°E—120°W, 0°—20°N
NA-RUN	0°—360°, 90°S—90°N	80°—10°W, 0°—60°N

北半球热带中太平洋与印度洋海表温度梯度对夏季西北太平洋热带气旋生成频数变化的影响

Influence of sea surface temperature gradients in the tropical Pacific and Indian oceans of the Northern Hemisphere on the frequency of tropical cyclone generation in the western North Pacific in summer

RichHTML

PDF (PC)

赞

可视化

被引次数

摘要/Abstract

引用本文

使用本文

图/表 8

参考文献 22

相关文章 3

Metrics

本文评价

推荐阅读 0

[1]	汪浩, 王静, 郑佳喻. 南印度洋热带气旋快速增强事件气候特征及其年际变率[J]. 热带海洋学报, 2022, 41(1): 94-105.
[2]	张蕾, 史兰红, 徐健, 孙冉, 赵兵科, 陈勇航, 王晓峰, 王文彩, 李梦, 丁明月. 热带气旋“桑美(2006)”冰云微物理属性垂直分布规律^*[J]. 热带海洋学报, 2016, 35(3): 30-40.
[3]	万云娇，陈更新，舒业强，王强，陈荣裕，王东晓. 南海冬季风潮背景下热带气旋诱导的近惯性振荡: Mirinae (0921)个例分析^*[J]. 热带海洋学报, 2015, 34(6): 11-18.