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热带海洋学报

• • 上一篇    

引导气流对飓风“保莱特”（2020）移动路径的影响研究

寿泽慧1,刘俏1,胡枫2, 3,王根4   

  1. 1. 安徽省气象台, 安徽 合肥 230031;

    2. 滁州学院, 滁州学院实景地理环境安徽省重点实验室、遥感与地理信息工程研究中心, 安徽 滁州 239000;

    3. 南京信息工程大学, 气象灾害教育部重点实验室、气象灾害预报预警与评估协同创新中心, 江苏 南京 210044;

    4. 巢湖学院电子工程学院, 安徽 合肥 238000

  • 收稿日期:2025-05-28 修回日期:2025-07-28 接受日期:2025-08-19
  • 通讯作者: 刘俏
  • 基金资助:

    安徽省自然科学基金项目(2308085QD129、2408085MD102); 实景地理环境安徽省重点实验室开放课题(2023PGE05); 安徽省高等学校科学研究项目——安徽省高校杰出青年科学基金(2022AH020093)

Study on the influence of environmental steering flow on the track of Hurricane Paulette

SHOU Zehui1, LIU Qiao1, HU Feng2, 3, WANG Gen4   

  1. 1. Anhui Meteorological Observatory, Hefei 230031, China;

    2. Anhui Province Key Laboratory of Physical Geographic Environment, Anhui Engineering Research Center of Remote Sensing and Geoinformatics, Chuzhou University, Chuzhou 239000, China;

    3. Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster (KLME), Ministry of Education & Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters (CIC-FEMD), Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing 210044, China;

    4. School of Electronic Engineering, Chaohu University, Hefei 238000, China

  • Received:2025-05-28 Revised:2025-07-28 Accepted:2025-08-19
  • Supported by:

    The Natural Science Foundation of Anhui Province (2308085QD129, 2408085MD102); the Joint Open Project of Anhui Province Key Laboratory of Physical Geographic Environment (2023PGE05); the Outstanding Youth Science Fund for Universities in Anhui Province of Anhui Province Higher Education Scientific Research Project (2022AH020093)

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摘要： 飓风“保莱特”（2020）生成后西北行至百慕大东北部，转向东北行并逐渐减弱变性，随后异常南折，在南下过程中“再生”为热带气旋。为了探究不同层次引导气流对“保莱特”移动的相对贡献，以及不同环流系统对其突然转向的影响，基于中尺度天气预报（Weather research and forecasting, WRF）模式对其移动路径进行模拟。研究结果表明：（1）飓风“保莱特”的再生过程与其异常南折路径密切相关，海温的显著增强是“保莱特”重新发展的关键因素。（2）在“保莱特”的不同移动特征阶段，主导飓风移动的引导气流存在显著的垂直层次差异。在发展初期的西北行阶段，中低层引导气流起主导作用，而在东北行阶段，高层引导气流的分量更强。在飓风向南转向的关键阶段，其低层引导气流首先由西风转为偏北风，随后自下而上逐步扩展至高层，最终建立稳定的偏北风引导气流，导致飓风突然向南转向。（3）初期“保莱特”处于副热带高压南缘，受高压带阻挡而西行或西北行。随着飓风增强，副热带高压断裂，导致“保莱特”北上并与中纬度西风槽合并。随后，在槽前西南风引导作用下向东北方向移动。然而，由于“保莱特”南侧高压脊不断发展且经向度显著增加，导致其在高压脊东侧偏北风引导作用下转向而南行。

关键词: 保莱特, 引导气流, 环境背景场

Abstract: After forming in 2020, Hurricane Paulette moved northwestward to the northeast of Bermuda, then turned northeast and gradually weakened through extratropical transition. Subsequently, it exhibited an unusual southward turn and regenerated into a tropical cyclone during its southward movement. To investigate the relative contributions of steering flows at different atmospheric levels to Paulette’s track and the influence of various circulation systems on its abrupt turning, numerical simulations were conducted using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. The results indicate that: (1) The regeneration of Hurricane Paulette was closely related to its anomalous southward path, with significantly enhanced sea surface temperatures playing a key role in its redevelopment. (2) During different stages of Paulette’s movement, the dominant steering flows exhibited notable vertical-layer differences. In the early northwestward stage, low- to mid-level steering flows played a leading role, while in the northeastward stage, upper-level components became more dominant. During the critical phase of Paulette’s southward turn, low-level steering flows shifted from westerly to northerly, and this northerly component progressively extended upward, eventually establishing a stable northerly steering flow that caused the cyclone to abruptly turn southward. (3) Initially, Paulette was situated on the southern edge of the subtropical high and moved westward or northwestward under its blocking influence. As Paulette intensified, a break in the subtropical high allowed the cyclone to move northward and merge with a mid-latitude westerly trough. Subsequently, under the influence of southwesterly steering flow ahead of the trough, Paulette moved northeastward. However, with the continued development of a high-pressure ridge to its south and a significant increase in its meridional extent, Paulette was redirected southward under the influence of northerly flow along the eastern flank of the ridge.

Key words: Paulette, steering flow, environmental background field