关键词: 海洋产业结构优化, 产业结构预测, 新结构经济学, 多目标规划, 遗传算法

Abstract: The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China clearly deployed " strengthening the development, utilization and protection of the ocean, " and listed " promoting the high-quality development of the marine economy and accelerating the construction of a maritime power " as a national key task. In this context, further promoting the optimization and upgrading of the marine industrial structure has become an important issue to help the construction of a maritime power. Based on the theory of new structural economics, this paper constructs a multi-objective programming model with capital, labor, energy and environmental capacity as the core constraints, and uses genetic algorithm to predict the optimal marine industrial structure evolution path of the whole country and 11 coastal provinces and cities from 2026 to 2040. The study found that the national marine industrial structure will still show a " three-two-one " phased evolution in the future, and a pattern of " three industries leading, two industries high-end, and one industry ecological " will be formed in 2040 ; according to the characteristics of industrial structure, the 11 coastal provinces and cities can be divided into four optimal industrial structure types : marine tertiary industry driven type, marine secondary and tertiary industry balanced type, marine primary industry characteristic type and transformation challenge prominent type. In general, capital factor is the core driving force of industrial structure optimization, energy and environmental capacity factors constitute rigid constraints, labor factor is loose constraints and technology substitution effect is significant.

Key words: Marine Industrial Structure Optimization, Industrial Structure Prediction, New Structural Economics, Multi-Objective Programming, Genetic Algorithm