雷州市沿海风暴潮淹没危险性评估*

doi:10.11978/2018067

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

文章基于近岸海洋数值模式ADCIRC (a parallel advanced circulation model for oceanic, coastal and estuarine waters)和近海波浪数值模式SWAN (simulating waves nearshore), 建立雷州市高分辨率的风暴潮-海浪耦合漫滩数值模型, 并反演了对雷州市影响较为严重的1415号台风“海鸥”的风暴潮过程。经过对比分析得出, 波浪对雷州市沿海海域的风暴潮产生重要影响。然后以8007号台风路径为基础, 构造了7个不同等级共35组台风风暴潮案例, 计算分析出不同等级台风强度下雷州市风暴潮淹没范围及水深。900hPa等级下, 雷州市淹没面积达到463.2km²。文章还构造了60组可能最大风暴潮事件集, 计算得到雷州市可能最大台风风暴潮淹没范围及水深分布。在可能最大台风影响下, 大量海水将漫过海堤, 造成极其严重的淹没灾害, 雷州市总的淹没面积可达602.0km², 其中465.8km²的淹没面积达到了危险性等级 Ⅰ 级, 淹没水深大于3m。雷州市东岸的淹没灾害大于西岸。

关键词: 风暴潮, 耦合模型, 淹没, 危险性评估

Abstract:

A storm surge and wave coupled inundation simulation model for Lei Zhou coastal areas at high resolution has been established based on ADCIRC (a parallel advanced circulation model for oceanic, coastal and estuarine waters) and SWAN (simulating waves nearshore) ocean numerical models. A total of 1415 typhoon cases that seriously impacted Lei Zhou were simulated. The result of contrastive analysis shows that wave has a significant impact on storm surge in Lei Zhou coastal areas. We designed 35 typhoon cases based on 8007 typhoons, and reserve flooded area and submerged depth for seven different grades. The inundated area of Lei Zhou can reach 463.2 km² under 900 hPa grade. We developed 60 cases of possible maximum storm surge and calculated the biggest inundated extent and depth. Under the impact of maximum typhoon, the sea water will spill over seawalls and cause serious flooding disaster. The total submerged area is 602.0 km² in Lei Zhou. The area whose dangerousness is first grade with flooding depth bigger than 3 m is 465.8 km². The eastern coastal areas of Lei Zhou will face larger storm surge disaster risk than the western coastal areas. The results of the study have important implications for guiding prevention and mitigation work of storm surge disaster in Lei Zhou.

Key words: storm surge, coupled model, inundation, risk assessment

中图分类号:

P732.25

张敏, 罗军, 胡金磊, 曾学智. 雷州市沿海风暴潮淹没危险性评估^*[J]. 热带海洋学报, 2019, 38(2): 1-12.

Min ZHANG, Jun LUO, Jinlei HU, Xuezhi ZENG. Inundation risk assessment of storm surge along Lei Zhou coastal areas^*[J]. Journal of Tropical Oceanography, 2019, 38(2): 1-12.

图/表 20

图1

图2

图3

图4

图5

图6

图7

图8

图9

表1

8007台风事件集下各代表点最大风暴增水(单位: m)"

路径	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9
t0	4.291	4.142	3.648	3.413	3.707	0.453	0.465	0.445	0.407
t1	4.383	4.219	3.718	3.469	3.785	0.447	0.462	0.454	0.397
t2	4.469	4.300	3.790	3.541	3.853	0.450	0.464	0.451	0.399
t3	4.557	4.391	3.872	3.604	3.933	0.451	0.460	0.447	0.393
t4	4.654	4.472	3.945	3.677	4.010	0.445	0.458	0.440	0.390
t5	4.745	4.567	4.020	3.745	4.114	0.439	0.452	0.442	0.378
t6	4.852	4.657	4.111	3.835	4.218	0.442	0.445	0.435	0.374
t7	4.967	4.777	4.206	3.937	4.361	0.435	0.442	0.434	0.394
t8	5.103	4.896	4.318	4.056	4.508	0.436	0.441	0.423	0.442
t9	5.251	5.044	4.434	4.189	4.675	0.439	0.448	0.432	0.452
t10	5.424	5.192	4.563	4.325	4.849	0.442	0.450	0.431	0.451
t11	5.593	5.352	4.682	4.456	5.028	0.456	0.453	0.449	0.492
t12	5.768	5.504	4.806	4.577	5.180	0.465	0.475	0.440	0.465
t13	5.922	5.632	4.911	4.663	5.294	0.495	0.480	0.467	0.499
t14	6.033	5.723	4.980	4.697	5.324	0.509	0.487	0.485	0.507
t15	6.064	5.706	4.953	4.587	5.028	0.699	0.512	0.473	0.493
t16	5.966	5.565	4.832	4.346	4.649	0.829	0.505	0.489	0.501
t17	5.718	5.266	4.567	4.075	4.436	0.892	0.623	0.489	0.519
t18	5.433	4.942	4.240	3.818	4.117	0.916	0.727	0.480	0.484
t19	5.151	4.649	3.979	3.560	3.750	0.929	0.791	0.481	0.527
t20	4.763	4.265	3.681	3.297	3.400	1.018	0.866	0.477	0.503
t21	4.346	3.850	3.377	3.038	3.065	1.099	0.948	0.478	0.545
t22	3.918	3.436	3.078	2.773	2.736	1.174	1.049	0.516	0.571
t23	3.587	3.121	2.809	2.508	2.399	1.205	1.184	0.631	0.534
t24	3.332	2.867	2.550	2.233	2.045	1.221	1.225	0.731	0.538
t25	3.062	2.607	2.294	1.944	1.742	1.233	1.230	0.821	0.554
t26	2.777	2.342	2.083	1.743	1.643	1.169	1.186	0.931	0.575
t27	2.469	2.062	1.859	1.570	1.507	1.088	1.107	0.983	0.572
t28	2.167	1.778	1.642	1.408	1.347	1.027	1.012	0.955	0.601
t29	1.958	1.584	1.415	1.221	1.161	0.957	0.932	1.015	0.663
t30	1.694	1.341	1.186	1.040	0.908	0.886	0.864	0.982	0.717
t31	1.387	1.060	0.981	0.900	0.722	0.826	0.803	0.900	0.747
t32	1.227	0.899	0.814	0.793	0.627	0.751	0.725	0.811	0.863
t33	1.107	0.791	0.709	0.696	0.569	0.690	0.651	0.727	0.819
t34	1.017	0.713	0.652	0.628	0.507	0.622	0.580	0.642	0.746
t35	0.950	0.659	0.609	0.568	0.476	0.572	0.530	0.554	0.758

表1

表2

图10

图11

表3

表4

表5

图12

图13

表6

表7

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级别	最低气压/hPa	湛江站		南渡站		硇洲站
级别	最低气压/hPa	最大增水/m	最高潮位/m	最大增水/m	最高潮位/m	最大增水/m	最高潮位/m
Ⅰ	900	5.993	7.694	6.898	9.691	4.892	5.222
Ⅱ	910	5.586	7.335	6.455	9.333	4.522	4.852
Ⅲ	920	5.202	7.053	6.093	8.949	4.261	4.591
Ⅳ	930	4.759	6.737	5.637	8.348	3.969	4.299
Ⅴ	940	4.373	6.443	5.162	7.721	3.674	4.004
Ⅵ	950	3.532	5.772	4.369	6.728	3.108	3.438
Ⅶ	960	3.066	5.368	3.798	6.049	2.653	2.983

	东岸淹没面积/km²					西岸淹没面积/km²
危险性等级	Ⅰ	Ⅱ	Ⅲ	Ⅳ	合计	Ⅰ	Ⅱ	Ⅲ	Ⅳ	合计
淹没水深/m	[3,+∞)	[1.2~3.0)	[0.5~1.2)	[0.15~0.5)	合计	[3,+∞)	[1.2~3.0)	[0.5~1.2)	[0.15~0.5)	合计
一级, 900hPa	176.5	162.4	23.5	5.4	367.8	0.3	59.6	23.9	11.6	95.4
二级, 910 hPa	131.9	161.7	38.1	6.1	337.8	0	45.8	27.2	11.1	84.1
三级, 920 hPa	67.4	96.3	79.8	27.9	271.4	0	44.3	22.9	10.1	77.3
四级, 930 hPa	57.3	23.7	36.0	15.1	132.1	0	42.3	23.5	9.4	75.2
五级, 940 hPa	50.7	17.9	32.6	12.3	113.5	0	35.4	23.2	9.7	68.3
六级, 950 hPa	32.3	19.4	2.2	2.0	55.9	0	14.2	32.6	11.5	58.3
七级, 960 hPa	27.7	17.7	4.0	0.2	49.6	0	9.3	35.0	11.9	56.2

角度	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9
67°30′	8.410	7.989	6.998	6.968	8.146	3.075	2.734	1.776	0.488
75°00′	9.057	8.442	7.651	6.843	7.603	2.788	2.341	1.541	0.330
82°30′	9.321	8.641	7.536	6.696	6.743	2.631	2.164	1.254	0.476
90°00′	9.347	9.007	7.733	6.950	6.910	2.450	1.893	0.608	0.468

站位	最大增水/m	最高潮位/m
湛江	7.806	10.081
硇洲	5.534	7.184
南渡	8.015	10.382

	东岸					西岸
危险性等级	Ⅰ	Ⅱ	Ⅲ	Ⅳ	合计	Ⅰ	Ⅱ	Ⅲ	Ⅳ	合计
淹没水深/m	[3,+∞)	[1.2~3.0)	[0.5~1.2)	[0.15~0.5)	合计	[3,+∞)	[1.2~3.0)	[0.5~1.2)	[0.15~0.5)	合计
面积/km²	408.9	41.1	6.2	0.8	457.0	56.9	44.5	31.2	12.4	145.0