不同类型台风气象场对深圳近海海域风暴潮模拟的比较研究—以台风“山竹”为例*

doi:10.11978/2023017

热带海洋学报 ›› 2023, Vol. 42 ›› Issue (6): 1-14.doi: 10.11978/2023017CSTR: 32234.14.2023017

所属专题：全球变化专题

• 海洋气象学 • 下一篇

不同类型台风气象场对深圳近海海域风暴潮模拟的比较研究—以台风“山竹”为例^*

张哲然¹(), 胡俊洋², 周凯², 张鹏晖¹, 邢久星¹, 陈胜利¹()

1.清华大学深圳国际研究生院海洋工程研究院, 广东深圳 518055
2.深圳市海洋发展研究促进中心, 广东深圳 518034

收稿日期:2023-02-10 修回日期:2023-05-04 出版日期:2023-11-10 发布日期:2023-11-28
作者简介:
张哲然(1997—), 男, 山东省烟台市人, 硕士研究生。email: zhangzr20@mails.tsinghua.edu.cn
*感谢加拿大达尔豪斯申锦瑜教授和杨盛牧博士对本论文的建议。感谢热带海洋学报编辑和三位审稿专家的宝贵意见。
基金资助:
深圳市科技创新委员会(WDZC20200819105831001); 广东省基础与应用基础研究基金(2022B1515130006)

Storm surge simulations of the coastal area of Shenzhen using different types of typhoon meteorological fields—a case study of Typhoon Mangkhut^*

ZHANG Zheran¹(), HU Junyang², ZHOU Kai², ZHANG Penghui¹, XING Jiuxing¹, CHEN Shengli¹()

1. Institute for Ocean Engineering, Shenzhen International Graduate School, Tsinghua University, Shenzhen 518055, China
2. Shenzhen Marine Development Research and Promotion Center, Shenzhen 518034, China

Received:2023-02-10 Revised:2023-05-04 Online:2023-11-10 Published:2023-11-28
Supported by:
Shenzhen Science and Technology Innovation Committee(WDZC20200819105831001); Guangdong Basic and Applied Basic Research Foundation(2022B1515130006)

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

台风引起的风暴增水严重影响沿海地区的生产生活, 是造成经济损失最严重的海洋灾害之一。深圳市位于中国南海北部沿岸, 是易受风暴潮灾害影响的区域, 对深圳近海海域风暴潮开展研究不仅能够提升对风暴潮物理机制的认识, 同时对沿海城市有效防灾减灾预警有重要意义。在风暴潮模拟研究过程中, 台风气象场是风暴潮模拟准确与否的关键因素。本文针对深圳近海区域海洋环境, 以海流模型FVCOM (finite volume community ocean model)和海浪模型SWAN (simulation wave nearshore)为基础, 建立了区域风暴潮-波浪耦合模型, 分别用再分析气象数据(European center for medium weather forecasting, ECMWF)、理想台风模型(Holland)及大气模型台风模拟结果(weather research and forecast, WRF)作为驱动场条件, 对台风“山竹”期间的风暴潮过程进行模拟。结果表明: 分辨率较低的ECMWF再分析气象数据难以准确体现台风水平结构, 从而导致模拟误差; Holland气象场在整体上能够对台风“山竹”进行准确模拟, 但无法再现台风在近岸区域的结构形变, 从而导致在蛇口及附近(深圳湾, 珠江口内侧)区域的风暴潮模拟水位偏高; WRF对风速、气压、水位、波浪都有较好的模拟效果, 且WRF很好的改善了Holland在靠近台风登陆点的区域风暴潮水位偏高的问题, 对珠江口、深圳湾区域定量改进约20%~30%。在未来的风暴潮预报中, 如果采用类似于Holland这样的理想台风场, 需注意上述区域的模拟结果。此外, Holland理想台风场和WRF模型结果驱动下的波浪场模拟效果都较好。

关键词: 深圳近海, 台风“山竹”, 台风气象场, 风暴潮, 数值模拟

Abstract:

Storm surges caused by typhoon seriously affect life and business in coastal areas, which is one of the most serious marine disasters that cause economic losses. Shenzhen is located on the edge of the northern South China Sea, which is vulnerable to typhoon induced storm surges. The study of Shenzhen offshore storm surges can not only promote understanding of the physical mechanisms of storm surges, but also has an important significance for the effective disaster prevention and reduction warning of coastal cities. In the process of storm surge modelling studies, a typhoon meteorological field is the key factor for the accuracy of storm surge model simulations. Based on the FVCOM (finite volume community ocean model) current model and SWAN (simulation wave nearshore) wave model, a regional storm surge and wave coupling model is established for the offshore area of Shenzhen. We use reanalysis of meteorological data (European center for medium weather forecasting, ECMWF), ideal typhoon model (Holland) and atmospheric model (weather research and forecast, WRF) as driving field conditions to simulate the storm surge process during Typhoon Mangkhut. The main conclusions are as follows: the low resolution ECMWF reanalysis meteorological data is difficult to accurately reflect the horizontal structures of typhoon, which leads to simulation errors. Overall, Holland meteorological field can accurately simulate Typhoon Mankhut, but it cannot reproduce the structural deformation of typhoon in the coastal region, which results in high simulated storm surge water levels in and around Shekou (Shenzhen Bay, inside the Pearl River Estuary). WRF has a good simulation effect on wind speeds, air pressure fields, water levels and waves as a whole. WRF is a good solution to the problem of high storm surge levels in Holland near the typhoon landfall. The quantitative improvement of WRF in the Pearl River Estuary and Shenzhen Bay area can reach about 20%~30%. In the future storm surge study, if the Holland meteorological field is used, care should be taken into simulation results of the above areas. In addition, both Holland and WRF have good wave simulation results.

Key words: coastal area of Shenzhen, Typhoon Mangkhut, typhoon meteorological fields, storm surges, numerical simulations

张哲然, 胡俊洋, 周凯, 张鹏晖, 邢久星, 陈胜利. 不同类型台风气象场对深圳近海海域风暴潮模拟的比较研究—以台风“山竹”为例^*[J]. 热带海洋学报, 2023, 42(6): 1-14.

ZHANG Zheran, HU Junyang, ZHOU Kai, ZHANG Penghui, XING Jiuxing, CHEN Shengli. Storm surge simulations of the coastal area of Shenzhen using different types of typhoon meteorological fields—a case study of Typhoon Mangkhut^*[J]. Journal of Tropical Oceanography, 2023, 42(6): 1-14.

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模型有关参数	具体配置及参数选择
驱动数据	美国NCEP的全球气象再分析数据FNL
数据分辨率	空间分辨率: 1°×1°; 时间分辨率: 6h
计算时段	201809140000—201809180000(UTC)
计算时长	4d (96h)
计算区域	104°—134°E、15°—30°N
网格分辨率	dx=dy=9km
网格数目	346×192
计算时间步长	30s
结果输出频率	5min一次
微物理过程方案	WSM 3 类简单冰方案
长波辐射方案	RRTM方案
短波辐射方案	Dudhia方案
调用辐散物理方案的时间间隔	30min
近地面层方案	Monin-Obukhov方案
陆面过程方案	Noah方案
边界层方案	YSU方案
积云参数化方案	浅对流Kain-Fritsch方案
积云参数化方案的调用时间间隔	5min

气象场名称	风速平均误差/(m·s^-1)	气压平均误差/hpa
ECMWF	3.0	5.5
Holland	7.2	12.1
WRF	4.5	4.6

气象场	蛇口站			南澳站			东山站
气象场	RMSE/m	极值误差/m	相位误差	RMSE/m	极值误差/m	相位误差	RMSE/m	极值误差/m	相位误差
ECMWF	0.37	0.48	0	0.37	0.72	0	0.36	0.80	0
Holland	0.42	1.09	0	0.30	0.18	0	0.29	0.14	0
WRF	0.34	0.10	2h	0.32	0.20	1~2h	0.33	0.18	1~2h

气象场	各测站平均均方根误差/m	平均相对误差/%
ECMWF	0.71	20.51
Holland	0.30	10.04
WRF	0.38	13.12

不同类型台风气象场对深圳近海海域风暴潮模拟的比较研究—以台风“山竹”为例^*

Storm surge simulations of the coastal area of Shenzhen using different types of typhoon meteorological fields—a case study of Typhoon Mangkhut^*

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不同类型台风气象场对深圳近海海域风暴潮模拟的比较研究—以台风“山竹”为例*

Storm surge simulations of the coastal area of Shenzhen using different types of typhoon meteorological fields—a case study of Typhoon Mangkhut*

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