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热带海洋学报

• • 上一篇    

IPO对El Niño多样性的影响机制的探讨

栗玉振1, 2，孟祥凤1, 2   

  1. 1. 海洋动力—物理环境与智能感知全国重点实验室(中国海洋大学)，山东，青岛 266100;

    2. 中国海洋大学海洋与大气学院，山东 青岛 266100

  • 收稿日期:2025-07-21 修回日期:2025-10-19 接受日期:2025-10-27
  • 通讯作者: 孟祥凤
  • 基金资助:

    国家重点研发计划(2023YFF0805203); 国家自然科学基金(41976015)

Investigation of the impact mechanisms of Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation on El Niño diversity

LI Yuzhen1, 2, MENG Xiangfeng1, 2   

  1. 1. State Key Laboratory of Physical Oceanography (Ocean University of China), Qingdao 266100, China;

    2. College of Oceanic and Atmospheric Sciences, Ocean University of China, Qingdao 266100, China

  • Received:2025-07-21 Revised:2025-10-19 Accepted:2025-10-27
  • Supported by:
    National Key Research and Development Program of China(2023YFF0805203); National Natural Science Foundation of China(41976015)

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摘要： 年代际太平洋振荡(IPO, Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation)在本世纪初由正位相转为负位相，同时El Niño事件类型由东太平洋(EP, eastern Pacific)型El Niño为主转为中太平洋(CP, central Pacific)型El Niño为主，IPO与El Niño事件多样性间存在一定关联。为解释这一现象，本文基于HadISST、ORAS5和GODAS数据，结合热收支分析，重点探讨了次表层非线性动力加热项(NDH, nonlinear dynamical heating)在IPO不同位相期间对不同类型El Niño事件的贡献差异。研究表明，在IPO正位相期间，东太平洋次表层NDH显著增强，可促进EP型El Niño事件的发展；而在IPO负位相期间，Niño3区NDH的减弱导致东太平洋暖异常维持能力下降，同时Niño4区NDH保持稳定，使得CP型El Niño事件占比增加(达到80%)。结果表明，东太平洋次表层NDH的时空差异是导致El Niño多样性特征的一个关键动力因素。同时，本文发现线性项中温跃层反馈(TH, thermocline feedback)和纬向平流反馈(ZA, zonal advective feedback)在CP型El Niño中均发挥了一定作用，其贡献存在纬向分布差异。

关键词: El Ni?o多样性, IPO, 热收支分析, 非线性动力加热项, 次表层

Abstract: The Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) transitioned from a positive phase to a negative phase in the early 21st century, while the dominant type of El Niño events shifted from the eastern Pacific (EP) type to the central Pacific (CP) type. This suggests a potential linkage between IPO phase transitions and the diversity of El Niño events. To elucidate this phenomenon, this study investigates the differential contributions of subsurface nonlinear dynamical heating (NDH) to distinct El Niño types under different IPO phases, utilizing datasets including HadISST, ORAS5, and GODAS, combined with ocean heat budget analysis. The results reveal that during the positive IPO phase, the subsurface NDH in the eastern Pacific intensifies significantly, promoting the development of EP-type El Niño events. Conversely, during the negative IPO phase, the weakening of NDH in the Niño3 region diminishes the ability of warm anomalies in the eastern Pacific to sustain, while stable NDH in the Niño4 region increases the ratio of CP-type events (up to 80%). These findings highlight that spatiotemporal differences in eastern Pacific subsurface NDH constitute a key dynamical factor driving El Niño diversity. Additionally, both thermocline feedback (TH) and zonal advective feedback (ZA) play significant roles in CP El Niño events, with zonal distinct contributions.

Key words: El Ni?o diversity, IPO, heat budget, NDH, subsurface