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热带海洋学报

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基于kNDVI的亚欧大陆热带与亚热带海岸带森林动态变化分析

邵搏誉1，喻蓉2,3，李加林1,4,5，匡文菲1，刘永超1,4,5   

  1. 1. 宁波大学地理与空间信息技术系，浙江 宁波315211;

    2. 浙江农林大学环境与资源学院/碳中和学院，浙江 杭州 311300;

    3. 浙江农林大学浙江省森林生态系统碳循环与固碳减排重点实验室，浙江 杭州 311300;

    4. 宁波大学东海研究院，浙江 宁波315211;

    5. 宁波大学浙江省陆海国土空间利用与治理协同创新中心，浙江 宁波315211;



  • 收稿日期:2025-10-04 修回日期:2025-11-15 接受日期:2025-11-26
  • 通讯作者: 刘永超
  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金(42206236；42276234)

Analysis of dynamic changes in tropical and subtropical coastal forests in the eurasian continental coastal zone based on kNDVI

SHAO Boyu1, YU Rong2,3, LI Jialin1,4,5, KUANG Wenfei1, LIU Yongchao1,4,5*   

  1. 1. Department of Geography and Spatial Information Techniques, Ningbo University, Ningbo 315211, China;

    2. College of Environment and Resources, College of Carbon Neutrality, Zhejiang A&F University, Hangzhou 311300, China

    3. Key Laboratory of Carbon Sequestration and Emission Reduction in Agriculture and Forestry of Zhejiang Province, Zhejiang A&F University, Hangzhou 311300, China

    4. Donghai Institute, Ningbo University , Ningbo 315211, China

    5. Zhejiang Collaborative Innovation Center for Land and Marine Spatial Utilization and Governance Research, Ningbo University, Ningbo 315211,China



  • Received:2025-10-04 Revised:2025-11-15 Accepted:2025-11-26
  • Supported by:
     the National Natural Science Foundation of China (42206236, 42276234)

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摘要： 亚欧大陆热带与亚热带海岸带作为“一带一路”倡议的关键区域，正面临气候变化与高强度人类活动的双重压力。深入探究该区域森林生态系统的动态演变及其对驱动因子的响应具有重要意义。本研究基于2000—2020年期间的核归一化植被指数kNDVI（kernel normalized difference vegetation index）数据，结合Theil ̄Sen Median趋势分析、Mann ̄Kendall检验以及偏相关分析方法，系统解析了亚欧大陆热带与亚热带海岸森林植被的空间格局及其时空变化特征，并进一步探讨了其对气候因子与人类活动的响应机制。结果表明:1）kNDVI值总体上随纬度升高而递减，热带海岸带森林区kNDVI值约为0.6，亚热带区域约为0.4。2）除东南亚部分海岸带森林kNDVI呈下降趋势外，其余区域均呈增加趋势。3）在影响因子方面，东亚、东南亚岛屿、南亚及西亚海岸带森林的太阳辐射普遍减弱；全区温度均呈上升趋势；中国沿海、东南亚大陆西缘及南欧大西洋沿岸降水呈减少趋势，其余地区则趋于增加；人口密度在研究区内总体呈下降趋势。4）偏相关分析显示，太阳辐射与人口密度多与海岸带森林变化呈负相关，温度升高则普遍有利于植被改善；降水在低纬度地区主要呈负相关，随纬度升高逐渐转为正相关。

关键词: kNDVI, 气候变化, 人口密度, 海岸森林, 时空变化

Abstract: As a crucial component of the Belt and Road initiative, the tropical and subtropical coastal zones of Eurasia are subject to the dual pressures of complex climate change and intense human activities. Investigating the evolution of their forest ecosystems and their responses to driving factors under this background is of great significance. Based on kNDVI (kernel Normalized Difference Vegetation Index) data from 2000 to 2020, this study employed Theil-Sen Median trend analysis, Mann-Kendall test, and partial correlation analysis to analyze the spatial distribution and spatiotemporal changes of vegetation in the coastal forest regions of tropical and subtropical Eurasia. It further explored the response mechanisms to climatic and human activity factors. The results indicate that:(1)The distribution of kNDVI in the tropical and subtropical forest regions of Eurasia generally shows a decreasing trend from low to high latitudes. Coastal forests in the tropical zone exhibit kNDVI values close to 0.6, while those in the subtropical zone have values around 0.4.(2)With the exception of some areas showing a decreasing trend in kNDVI along the Southeast Asian coast, coastal forests in other regions displayed an increasing trend.(3)Regarding influencing factors: Solar radiation showed a decreasing trend in coastal forests of East Asia, Southeast Asian islands, South Asia, and West Asia; Temperature exhibited an increasing trend across all coastal forest regions; Precipitation displayed a decreasing trend in coastal forests along China's coast, the western regions of Southeast Asian countries bordering the mainland, and the eastern Atlantic coast of Southern Europe, while showing an increasing trend elsewhere; The overall population density in the study area exhibited a decreasing trend.(4)Solar radiation and population density primarily showed partial negative correlations with coastal forest changes (represented by kNDVI trends). Rising temperatures were generally conducive to the improvement of coastal forests. The relationship with precipitation transitioned from predominantly partial negative correlations at lower latitudes to predominantly partial positive correlations at higher latitudes. Population density mainly exhibited partial negative correlations with coastal forest changes.

Key words: kNDVI, climate change, population density, coastal forests, spatiotemporal changes