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热带海洋学报

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基于物种分布模型与生物替代的浙江省秋茄潜在分布研究

赵志霞， 刘星, 杨升, 刘双双, 刘慧子, 卢翔, 陈秋夏
  

  1. 浙江省农业科学院浙江省亚热带作物研究所, 浙江 温州, 325005


  • 收稿日期:2026-01-07 修回日期:2026-03-22 接受日期:2026-03-27
  • 通讯作者: 陈秋夏
  • 基金资助:
    浙江省“尖兵”“领雁”研发攻关计划项目（2023C02003）; 温州市高水平创新团队“沿海特色植物创新和利用团队项目”（NY202401）

Study on the suitable distribution of Kandelia obovata in Zhejiang based on species distribution models and biological replacement

ZHAO Zhixia, LIU Xing, YANG Sheng, LIU Shuangshuang, LIU Huizi, LU Xiang, CHEN Qiuxia   

  1. Zhejiang Institute of Subtropical Crops, Zhejiang Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Wenzhou, Zhejiang Province, 325005, China


  • Received:2026-01-07 Revised:2026-03-22 Accepted:2026-03-27
  • Contact: chen, qiuxia
  • Supported by:

    The Key Research and Development Program of Zhejiang Province (2023C02003); Wenzhou High-level Innovation Team "Coastal Characteristic Plant Innovation and Utilization Project"(NY202401)

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摘要： 红树林是生长在热带和亚热带海岸潮间带的木本植物群落，全球变暖间接推动了红树林向更高纬度区域的扩张。互花米草（Spartina alterniflora）作为我国典型滨海湿地入侵物种，与红树林存在生态位高度重叠和养分竞争。秋茄（Kandelia obovata）是我国耐寒能力最强的真红树植物，也是浙江省红树林造林的主要树种。因此，明确浙江红树林宜林地分布，对红树林北缘生态修复、海岸防护、碳汇提升，具有不可替代的科学与实践价值。本研究基于秋茄分布数据、互花米草分布数据、生物气候、高程等因子，利用Maxent物种分布模型和红树林替代互花米草生物替代法评估浙江红树林适宜分布。研究表明：（1）当前气候条件下，浙江红树林适生区面积为18210.76ha，其中29.83%为高适生区，主要分布在温州和台州。（2）浙江省互花米草除治区内红树林宜林地面积为5823.15ha，主要分布在温州湾、乐清湾、三门湾、宁波湾和象山港等地。（3）浙江红树林优先发展区面积为2183.76ha，主要集中在乐清湾和鳌江口。研究结果揭示了未来浙江省红树林主要呈现向高纬度迁移的扩散模式，明确了浙江省红树林适宜生境分布格局，对秋茄适应气候变化策略提供了数据支持，同时提高了浙江省红树秋茄的修复成功率，为全球红树林北缘保护修复提供中国经验。

关键词: 秋茄, 物种分布模型, 气候变暖, 互花米草, 潜在分布

Abstract: Mangroves are woody plant communities that grow in tropical and subtropical coastal tidal zones. Global warming has indirectly driven the expansion of mangrove forests to higher latitudes. Kandelia obovata, as the most cold-tolerant true mangrove species in China, is the core species for mangrove afforestation in Zhejiang Province. Against the dual background of climate warming and large-scale control of Spartina alterniflora, accurately identifying the suitable distribution areas of K. obovata from complex control sites has become a key issue in promoting afforestation at the northern edge of mangroves. To address this issue, this study integrates sample point data of K. obovata with distribution data from S. alterniflora control areas, along with environmental factors such as bioclimatic variables and elevation. By employing the MaxEnt species distribution model and the biological replacement method (replacing S. alterniflora with K. obovata), it systematically assesses the suitable distribution range of K. obovata in Zhejiang Province. The results showed that: (1) Under current climatic conditions, the area of suitable habitats for mangroves in Zhejiang Province is 18,210.76 hectares, of which 29.83% are highly suitable areas, mainly distributed in Wenzhou and Taizhou. (2) The area of suitable mangrove afforestation land within the S. alterniflora control areas in Zhejiang Province is 5,823.15 hectares, mainly located in Wenzhou Bay, Yueqing Bay, Sanmen Bay, Ningbo Bay, Xiangshan Harbor and other regions. (3) The area of priority development zones for mangroves in Zhejiang Province is 2,183.76 hectares, concentrated primarily in Yueqing Bay and Aojiang Estuary.The research results reveal that mangroves will mainly present a spreading pattern of migration to higher latitudes, clarify the distribution pattern of suitable habitats for mangroves in Zhejiang Province. The study provided data support for the climate change adaptation strategies of K. obovata, enhance the restoration success rate of this species in Zhejiang, and providing Chinese experience for the conservation and restoration of the northern edge of the global mangrove forests.

Key words: Kandelia obovata, Species Distribution Model, Climate Warming, Spartina alterniflora, Potential Distribution