ENSO与内部变率对印度洋偶极子影响的估算*

doi:10.11978/2024238

热带海洋学报 ›› 2026, Vol. 45 ›› Issue (1): 91-104.doi: 10.11978/2024238CSTR: 32234.14.2024238

ENSO与内部变率对印度洋偶极子影响的估算^*

张涟漪¹(), 张玉红¹^,², 杜岩¹^,²()

¹热带海洋环境与岛礁生态全国重点实验室/广东省海洋遥感与大数据重点实验室(中国科学院南海海洋研究所), 广东广州 510301
²中国科学院大学海洋学院, 山东青岛 266000

收稿日期:2024-12-23 修回日期:2025-01-15 出版日期:2026-01-10 发布日期:2026-01-30
通讯作者: 杜岩。email: duyan@scsio.ac.cn
作者简介:
张涟漪(1993—), 男, 天津市人, 助理研究员, 主要从事海气相互作用与海洋动力过程方面的研究。email: lyzhang@scsio.ac.cn
*感谢两位审稿老师对本工作提出的建设性意见。感谢美国国家海洋和大气管理局(NOAA)提供ERSST资料, 欧洲中期天气预报中心(ECMWF)提供ERA5大气再分析资料, 和英国气象局哈德利中心(Met Office Hadley Centre)提供的EN4资料。感谢中国科学院南海海洋研究所高性能计算中心提供数据计算的支持
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金(U21A6001); 国家自然科学基金(42106021); 中国科学院项目(183311KYSB20200015); 中国科学院南海海洋研究所项目(SCSIO202201); 中国科学院南海海洋研究所项目(SCSIO2023HC07); 广州市科技项目(2023A04J0186); 南方海洋科学与工程广东省实验室(广州)项目(2019BT02H594); 广东省基础与应用基础研究基金杰出青年项目(2024B1515020037); 广东省基础与应用基础研究基金面上项目(2023A1515012691)

Quantifying impacts of ENSO and internal variability on the Indian Ocean Dipole^*

ZHANG Lianyi¹(), ZHANG Yuhong¹^,², DU Yan¹^,²()

¹State Key Laboratory of Tropical Oceanography/Guangdong Key Lab of Ocean Remote Sensing and Big Data (LORS), South China Sea Institute of Oceanology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Guangzhou 510301, China
²College of Marine Sciences, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Qingdao 266000, China

Received:2024-12-23 Revised:2025-01-15 Online:2026-01-10 Published:2026-01-30
Contact: DU Yan. email: duyan@scsio.ac.cn
Supported by:
National Natural Science Foundation of China(U21A6001); National Natural Science Foundation of China(42106021); Chinese Academy of Sciences(183311KYSB20200015); South China Sea Institute of Oceanology(SCSIO202201); South China Sea Institute of Oceanology(SCSIO2023HC07); Science and Technology Projects in Guangzhou(2023A04J0186); Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory (Guangzhou)(2019BT02H594); Guangdong Natural Science Funds for Distinguished Young Scholar(2024B1515020037); Guangdong Basic and Applied Basic Research Foundation(2023A1515012691)

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

印度洋偶极子(Indian Ocean Dipole, IOD)是印度洋固有的一种气候现象, 通常发生在北半球秋季, 会影响印度洋周边国家和地区乃至我国的天气、气候状况。IOD同时受到厄尔尼诺-南方涛动(El Niño-Southern Oscillation, ENSO)和印度洋内部变率的影响。因增暖中心和气候影响的差异, ENSO被分为两种主要类型, 即东太平洋型(eastern Pacific, EP)和中太平洋型(central Pacific, CP)。然而, 当前研究并未充分讨论两种类型ENSO对IOD的影响机制, 也未量化两类ENSO和内部变率的影响程度。在此, 以上因素对IOD的贡献可以通过一种新型联合线性回归方法进行估算。该方法分离了两类ENSO与内部变率的影响, 结果表明印度洋内部变率是IOD海温变化主要来源, 占比可达60%以上; ENSO的总贡献约占三分之一, 其中以CP型为主, 而EP型则倾向于在极端事件中影响IOD。ENSO与内部变率对IOD的作用机制不同: ENSO主要通过沃克环流影响印度洋风场, 但因为EP型和CP型的增暖核心不同, 两者影响程度有所差异; 内部变率则倾向于通过印度洋内部的海洋过程造成海温异常进而引起IOD。此外, 由于厄尔尼诺生命期更长, 与之共发的IOD正事件有更大几率转化为下一年春季的印度洋海盆尺度增暖, 其中ENSO总贡献超过70%。虽然内部变率对该转化并无显著统计关系, 但强的IOD正事件仍有机会触发海盆尺度增暖。以上结果有助于提高对气候模态以及跨海盆相互作用的认识。

关键词: 热带印度洋, 印度洋偶极子, 厄尔尼诺与南方涛动, 印度洋海盆模态

Abstract:

The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is an intrinsic climate mode in the Indian Ocean, typically occurring during the boreal fall, influencing weather and climate in surrounding regions and even China. The IOD is affected by both the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and internal variability within the Indian Ocean. However, the quantitative contributions of two types of ENSO, namely the eastern Pacific (EP) and the central Pacific (CP), and internal variability to the IOD remain unclear. Here, a binary combined linear regression method is used to separate and estimate the contributions of these three factors. The results show that internal variability is the primary source of IOD sea surface temperature (SST) changes, accounting for more than 60% of the variance. The contribution of ENSO is about one-third, predominantly driven by the CP ENSO, whereas the EP type tends to exert a stronger influence on the IOD during extreme events. Their influencing mechanisms are different: ENSO affects the Indian Ocean wind field primarily via the Walker circulation, with the efficiency depending on the location of the warming cores (EP vs. CP). In comparison, internal variability tends to induce SST anomalies through oceanic processes within the Indian Ocean, facilitating IOD development. Due to the longer lifetime of El Niño events, a co-occurring positive IOD has a higher chance of transforming into an Indian Ocean basin-wide warming event in the following spring, for which ENSO contributes more than 70% of the transition. Although internal variability does not show a significant statistical relationship with this transition, a strong positive IOD still has the potential to induce subsequent basin-wide warming. These findings improve our understanding of climate modes and inter-basin interactions.

Key words: tropical Indian Ocean, Indian Ocean Dipole, El Niño-Southern Oscillation, Indian Ocean basin-wide mode

中图分类号:

P732.6

张涟漪, 张玉红, 杜岩. ENSO与内部变率对印度洋偶极子影响的估算^*[J]. 热带海洋学报, 2026, 45(1): 91-104.

ZHANG Lianyi, ZHANG Yuhong, DU Yan. Quantifying impacts of ENSO and internal variability on the Indian Ocean Dipole^*[J]. Journal of Tropical Oceanography, 2026, 45(1): 91-104.

图/表 8

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ENSO与内部变率对印度洋偶极子影响的估算^*

Quantifying impacts of ENSO and internal variability on the Indian Ocean Dipole^*

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ENSO与内部变率对印度洋偶极子影响的估算*

Quantifying impacts of ENSO and internal variability on the Indian Ocean Dipole*

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ENSO与内部变率对印度洋偶极子影响的估算^*

Quantifying impacts of ENSO and internal variability on the Indian Ocean Dipole^*