台风“暹芭”登陆后北折路径成因及诊断分析

doi:10.11978/2024239

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 2022年第4号台风“暹芭”在7月2日夜间进入广西后出现突然北折路径, 导致风雨预报出现显著偏差, 对台风防御工作造成重大影响。本文利用高空、地面、卫星等多源气象观测资料以及欧洲中期天气预报中心(European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts, ECMWF)提供的第5代再分析资料 (ECMWF re-analysis 5, ERA5), 采用天气学诊断方法对台风路径北折的成因进行深入分析, 并运用位涡倾向方程进行定量诊断。结果表明: (1)“暹芭”台风路径北折是大尺度环流形势变化导致的深层引导气流改变与台风内部非对称结构变化共同作用的结果; (2)深层引导气流在路径转折中起主导作用, 西太平洋副热带高压的西伸加强、高空西风槽前和南亚高压单体西北侧的西南气流与台风北向出流的相互作用是引导气流改变的关键驱动因素; 同时正涡度平流的变化对“暹芭”台风路径北折具有指示性意义; (3)“暹芭”台风呈现非对称结构特征, 其内部垂直运动所引发的积云对流对台风北折有重要影响, 台风云系形态变化也为台风移向的转折提供指示; (4)位涡倾向方程定量诊断进一步表明, 台风在南海移动期间主要受外部大尺度环流形成的引导气流影响, 而台风进入内陆后突然北折则是引导气流和台风非对称结构引发垂直运动共同作用的结果; 此外“暹芭”台风具有趋向于位势倾向正值中心移动特征。

关键词: 台风路径北折, 引导气流, 台风非对称结构, 位涡倾向方程

Abstract:

Typhoon Chaba, the fourth typhoon of 2022, exhibited an abnormal northward turn after making landfall in Guangxi on the night of July 2, resulting in significant deviations in wind and rainfall forecasts and posing major challenges to typhoon defense efforts. This study employs a comprehensive approach utilizing multi-source meteorological observation data from the upper-air, surface, and satellite platforms, along with ERA5 (the fifth generation of European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts) reanalysis data of the global climate. Through synoptic diagnostic analysis and quantitative diagnosis using the potential vorticity tendency equation, we investigate the causes of the typhoon's abnormal northward turn. The results indicate that: (1) The northward turn of typhoon Chaba resulted from the combined effects of changes in the deep-layer steering flow due to large-scale circulation pattern shifts and changes in the typhoon's internal asymmetric structure; (2) The deep-layer steering flow played a dominant role in the track deflection. Key factors driving the steering flow changes included the westward extension and intensification of the Western Pacific Subtropical High, the interaction between the southwest flow ahead of the upper-level westerly trough and the northwest side of the South Asian High, and the typhoon's northward outflow. Meanwhile, changes in positive vorticity advection served as important indicators of the typhoon's northward turn; (3) Typhoon Chaba displayed distinct asymmetric structural characteristics, with cumulonimbus convection triggered by its internal vertical motion significantly influencing the northward turn. Changes in the typhoon's cloud pattern also provided valuable indications of its directional shift; (4) Quantitative diagnosis using the potential vorticity tendency equation further revealed that during its movement over the South China Sea, the typhoon was primarily controlled by the steering flow formed by the external large-scale circulation. The abrupt northward turn after landfall resulted from the combined effects of this steering flow and vertical motion induced by the typhoon's asymmetric structure. Additionally, typhoon Chaba exhibited a consistent movement tendency towards the center of positive potential vorticity tendency.

Key words: northward turning of typhoon path, steering flow, asymmetric structure of typhoon, potential vorticity tendency equation

中图分类号:

732.4

周云霞, 翟丽萍, 覃皓, 黄晴, 祁丽燕. 台风“暹芭”登陆后北折路径成因及诊断分析[J]. 热带海洋学报, 2025, 44(4): 67-76.

ZHOU Yunxia, ZHAI Liping, QIN Hao, HUANG Qing, QI Liyan. Diagnostic analysis and causes of the northward turning path of typhoon Chaba after landfall[J]. Journal of Tropical Oceanography, 2025, 44(4): 67-76.

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