多普勒雷达资料同化在台风“灿都”(2010)预报中的应用研究

doi:10.11978/2018055

热带海洋学报 ›› 2019, Vol. 38 ›› Issue (2): 20-31.doi: 10.11978/2018055CSTR: 32234.14.2018055

多普勒雷达资料同化在台风“灿都”(2010)预报中的应用研究

戚佩霓(), 沈菲菲(), 寇蕾蕾, 楚志刚, 许冬梅

南京信息工程大学气象灾害教育部重点实验室/气候与环境变化国际合作联合实验室/气象灾害预报预警与评估协同创新中心, 江苏南京 210044

收稿日期:2018-05-23 修回日期:2018-09-05 出版日期:2019-03-20 发布日期:2019-04-15
作者简介:
作者简介：戚佩霓(1995—), 女, 浙江省杭州市人, 本科生。Email: 315295984@qq.com
基金资助:
国家重点研发计划项目(2018YFC1506404、2018YFC1506603、2017YFC1502102、2017YFC1502103);国家自然科学基金项目(G41805016、G41805070);江苏省自然科学基金项目(BK20170940、BK20160954);气象灾害教育部重点实验室(南京信息工程大学)开放课题(KLME201807、KLME201808);江苏省气象局北极阁基金项目(BJG201604);南京信息工程大学人才启动基金项目(2016r043、2016r27)

Experiments of assimilating Doppler radar data in forecast of Typhoon Chanthu

Peini QI(), Feifei SHEN(), Leilei KOU, Zhigang CHU, Dongmei XU

Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster, Ministry of Education (KLME)/Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environment Change (ILCEC)/Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters (CIC-FEMD), Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing 210044, China

Received:2018-05-23 Revised:2018-09-05 Online:2019-03-20 Published:2019-04-15
Supported by:
National Key Research and Development Program of China (2018YFC1506404, 2018YFC1506603, 2017YFC1502102, 2017YFC1502103);National Natural Science Foundation of China (G41805016, G41805070);Natural Science Foundation of Jiangsu Province (BK20170940, BK20160954);Open Project of Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster of Ministry of Education, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology (KLME201807, KLME201808);Beijige Funding from Jiangsu Research Institute of Meteorological Science (BJG201604);Startup Foundation for Introducing Talent of Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology (2016r043, 2016r027)

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

文章基于中尺度天气预报模式(WRF)及其三维变分同化系统(WRF-3DVAR), 采用了两部雷达径向风资料, 进行单一时间分析以初始化台风“灿都”(Chanthu), 比较研究了同化雷达径向速度(V_r)对台风“灿都”分析和预报的影响。结果表明: 同化雷达径向风的作用主要体现在台风强度和环流结构的调整, 且在同化达到一定时长后, 对改进同化后的预报分析有积极效应。同化试验改进台风的初始风场以及台风环流中心的热力和动力结构、强度和位置, 进而提高18h预报的台风结构、路径、强度。

关键词: 雷达径向风资料, 资料同化, 天气预报模式的三维变分同化系统, 台风

Abstract:

Based on the WRF (Weather Research and Forecast) model and WRF-3DVAR (3- Dimensional Variational) assimilation system, we conduct a single time analysis to initialize Typhoon Chanthu and compare the effects of assimilation radar radial velocity (V_r) on Typhoon Chanthu analysis and forecast, with two radar radial wind data. We show that the role of assimilating radar radial wind is mainly reflected in the adjustment of typhoon intensity and circulation structure; and after the assimilation reaches a certain length of time, it has a positive effect on the improvement of forecast. The assimilation test improves the typhoon's initial wind field and the thermal and dynamic structures, intensity, and location of the typhoon circulation center, thereby improving the typhoon structure, path, and intensity predicted for future 18 hours.

Key words: radar radial velocity, data assimilation, WRF-3DVAR, typhoon

中图分类号:

P732.42

戚佩霓, 沈菲菲, 寇蕾蕾, 楚志刚, 许冬梅. 多普勒雷达资料同化在台风“灿都”(2010)预报中的应用研究[J]. 热带海洋学报, 2019, 38(2): 20-31.

Peini QI, Feifei SHEN, Leilei KOU, Zhigang CHU, Dongmei XU. Experiments of assimilating Doppler radar data in forecast of Typhoon Chanthu[J]. Journal of Tropical Oceanography, 2019, 38(2): 20-31.

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多普勒雷达资料同化在台风“灿都”(2010)预报中的应用研究

Experiments of assimilating Doppler radar data in forecast of Typhoon Chanthu

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