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热带海洋学报

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气候变化下全球石斑鱼地理分布格局及当前海洋保护区对其保护效力评估

袁诵禧1, 2, 黄红伟1, 2, 张旭3, 肖冰清1, 4, 林强1, 2, 张志新1, 2
  

  1. 1.中国科学院热带海洋生物资源与生态重点实验室, 广东 广州 510301;

    2.中国科学院大学, 北京 100049;

    3.广州利洋水产科技股份有限公司, 广东 广州 510665

    4.暨南大学生命科学技术学院, 广东省高等学校富营养化与赤潮防治重点实验室, 广东 广州 510632



  • 收稿日期:2025-09-25 修回日期:2025-12-18 接受日期:2026-03-06
  • 通讯作者: 张志新
  • 基金资助:

    国家重点研发计划(2023YFC3108800); 国家自然科学基金(42276126); 广东省基础与应用基础研究基金联合基金(2024A1515010604)

Global distribution pattern of grouper species and the evaluation of protection efficacy of Marine Protected Areas under climate change

YUAN Songxi1, 2, HUANG Hongwei1, 2, ZHANG Xu3,XIAO Bingqing1,4,  LIN Qiang1, 2, ZHANG Zhixin1, 2   

  1. 1. State Key Laboratory of Tropical Oceanography (South China Sea Institute of Oceanology, Chinese Academy of Sciences), Guangdong Guangzhou 510301, China;

    2. University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China;

    3. Guangzhou Liyang Aqua-Technology Co., Ltd., Guangdong Guangzhou 510301, China

    4 College of Life Science and Technology, Jinan University, Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Eutrophication and Red Tide Control, Guangzhou 510632, Guangdong, China



  • Received:2025-09-25 Revised:2025-12-18 Accepted:2026-03-06
  • Supported by:
    National Key Research and Development Program of China(2023YFC3108800); National Natural Science Foundation of China(42276126); the Guangdong Basic and Applied Basic Research Foundation(2024A1515010604)

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摘要： 海洋生物多样性对全球碳循环和生态系统健康至关重要，但因气候变化等因素正遭受严重威胁，海洋保护区(MPAs)虽不断增加，但其在未来气候变化下的保护效力仍有待评估。被称为“蓝色食物”的石斑鱼作为重要的海洋鱼类类群，面临栖息地破坏、种群衰退等威胁，评估现有MPAs对其保护效力显得尤为迫切。本研究基于167种石斑鱼的36,631条分布数据，利用广义线性模型 (Generalized Linear Model) 预测了其在当前和未来(2040–2050年、2090–2100年，SSP2-4.5和SSP5-8.5)排放情景下的潜在适宜生境，并分析了石斑鱼类群在全球的，基于此，研究借助世界保护区数据库进一步评估了现有海洋保护区 (Marine Protected Areas, MPAs) 在未来气候变化下对石斑鱼类群的保护效力。结果显示：石斑鱼物种多样性在印太交汇区最为集中，呈现出典型的“双峰型”纬度分布格局。未来在高排放情景下，其适宜生境将明显向高纬度迁移，热带和亚热带海域的多样性显著下降。尽管当前全球MPAs对石斑鱼的平均保护效力为16.66%，但在未来气候变化情境下，该数值将下降至13%，且适宜生境面积显著缩减。研究表明，现有MPA网络难以有效覆盖气候变化驱动下的物种分布转移，可能无法维持石斑鱼种群的长期稳定。未来应加强适应性保护规划，优化MPAs布局，并结合动态管理策略，以提升石斑鱼及其他礁栖鱼类的气候适应性保护效果。

关键词: 气候变化, 石斑鱼, 地理分布格局, 海洋保护区, 保护效力

Abstract: Marine biodiversity is crucial to the global carbon cycle and ecosystem health, yet it faces severe threats from factors such as climate change. Although Marine Protected Areas (MPAs) are continuously expanding, their protection efficacy under future climate change remains to be thoroughly evaluated. Groupers, referred as blue food, represent an important marine fish group that is threatened by habitat degradation and population decline, making it particularly urgent to evaluate the protection efficacy for their protection. Based on 36,631 distribution records of 167 grouper species, this study employed Generalized Linear Model (GLM) to predict their potential suitable habitats under current and future under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 for 2040-2050 and 2090-2100. The study further analyzed the global distribution patterns of grouper diversity and using the World Database on Protected Areas to evaluat the efficacy of existing MPAs in protecting grouper species under future climate change. The results indicate that grouper species diversity is most concentrated in the Indo-Pacific convergence zone, exhibiting a typical bimodal latitudinal distribution pattern. Under high-emission scenarios in the future, suitable habitats are projected to shift significantly toward higher latitudes, with diversity markedly declining in tropical and subtropical seas. Although the current global MPAs provide an average protection efficacy of 16.66% for groupers, this value is expected to drop to 13% under future climate change, accompanied by a significant reduction in suitable habitat area. The study demonstrates that the existing MPA network may fail to adequately cover climate-driven shifts in species distributions and could be insufficient to maintain the long-term stability of grouper populations. It is recommended to enhance adaptive conservation planning, optimize MPA design, and integrate dynamic management strategies to improve climate-resilient protection for groupers and other reef-associated fishes.

Key words: climate change, grouper, geographical distribution pattern, Marine Protected Areas, protection efficacy