中国沿海地区社会—生态系统韧性演化研究

doi:10.11978/2025244

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 受全球气候变化和人类活动的双重干扰, 中国沿海地区社会—生态系统的结构完整性与功能稳定性正面临挑战。研究系统韧性, 对增强其抵御、恢复、适应的能力具有重要的科学价值。综合考虑自然生态与社会经济因素, 构建基于脆弱性、抵抗性、恢复性、适应性维度的指标评价体系, 运用熵权—TOPSIS法、重心—标准差椭圆、灰色关联度、灰色预测模型分析2013—2022年中国沿海地区社会—生态系统韧性的时空特征、影响因素以及未来演变趋势。结果表明: (1)社会—生态系统韧性呈波动上升趋势和东部>南部>北部的梯度分异, 2020年后各省韧性趋于稳定并略有提升, 韧性重心南移且空间分布的主趋势方向长期稳定。(2)上海、广东、山东、江苏、浙江、福建和海南等7个省级行政区在四个维度上发展均衡, 辽宁和天津存在低恢复的韧性陷阱, 河北和广西在4个维度上均呈现韧性陷阱。(3)社会—生态系统韧性主要受监测预警能力、经济发展水平、科技创新力度以及资源环境建设等的直接影响, 反映环境长期压力的因素对韧性的影响较弱。(4)未来10年韧性整体仍缓慢提升, 但区域不均衡加剧, 环渤海等地区面临发展滞后风险。基于研究结果, 提出因地制宜和协调发展的韧性治理理念、分类针对的韧性治理措施、强化核心驱动力和稳固自然基础的韧性治理路径、区域差异化的韧性治理方案, 推动中国沿海地区社会—生态系统韧性提升与可持续发展。

关键词: 韧性, 社会-生态系统, 演化规律, 影响因素, 沿海地区

Abstract: Due to the dual interference of global climate change and human activities, the structural integrity and functional stability of the social-ecological system in China’s coastal areas are facing challenges. It is of great scientific value to study the resilience of the system to enhance its ability to resist, recover and adapt. Considering the natural ecological and socio-economic factors, an index evaluation system based on vulnerability, resistance, resilience and adaptability dimensions is constructed. The entropy weight-TOPSIS method, center of gravity-standard deviation ellipse, grey correlation degree and grey prediction model are used to analyze the spatial and temporal characteristics, influencing factors and future evolution trend of social-ecological system resilience in coastal areas of China from 2013 to 2022. The results show that: (1) The resilience of social-ecological system shows a fluctuating upward trend and a gradient differentiation that the East is greater than the South and the South is greater than the North. After 2020, the resilience of each province tends to be stable and slightly increases, and the center of gravity of resilience moves southward and the main trend direction of spatial distribution is stable for a long time. (2) Seven provincial-level administrative regions, including Shanghai, Guangdong, Shandong, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Fujian and Hainan, have balanced development in four dimensions. Liaoning and Tianjin have a low-recovery resilience trap, while Hebei and Guangxi have a resilience trap in four dimensions. (3) The resilience of social-ecological system is mainly affected by the ability of monitoring and early warning, the level of economic development, the intensity of scientific and technological innovation and the construction of resources and environment. The factors that reflect the long-term pressure of the environment have a weak impact on resilience. (4) In the next ten years, the overall resilience is still slowly improving, but the regional imbalance is intensifying, and the Bohai Rim and other regions are facing the risk of lagging development. Based on the research results, the resilience governance concept of adapting to local conditions and coordinated development, the resilience governance measures for classification, the resilience governance path of strengthening the core driving force and stabilizing the natural foundation, and the resilience governance plan of regional differentiation are proposed to promote the resilience improvement and sustainable development of the social-ecological system in China’s coastal areas.

Key words: resilience, social-ecological system, evolutionary regularity, influencing factors, coastal areas

刘莎, 曹译予, 孔江涛, 刘永超, 李加林. 中国沿海地区社会—生态系统韧性演化研究[J]. 热带海洋学报, 0, (): 1-.

LIU Sha, CAO Yiyu, KONG Jiangtao, LIU Yongchao, LI Jialin. Research on the evolution of social-ecological system resilience in China’s coastal areas[J]. Journal of Tropical Oceanography, 0, (): 1-.

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