环境因子对南海土台风“蝴蝶”与“银河”强度的影响*

doi:10.11978/2017073

热带海洋学报 ›› 2018, Vol. 37 ›› Issue (3): 26-34.doi: 10.11978/2017073CSTR: 32234.14.2017073

所属专题：南海专题

环境因子对南海土台风“蝴蝶”与“银河”强度的影响^*

毋浩亮¹(), 胡松^1,²()

1. 上海海洋大学海洋科学学院海洋生态系统与环境实验室, 上海 201306
2. 国家远洋渔业工程技术研究中心, 上海 201306

收稿日期:2017-06-27 修回日期:2017-09-26 出版日期:2018-06-10 发布日期:2018-05-03
作者简介:
作者简介：毋浩亮(1992—), 女, 山西省太原市人, 硕士研究生, 主要从事南海土台风研究。E-mail: whaoliang@hotmail.com
基金资助:
上海海洋大学“海燕计划”(A2-0203-00-100520);上海海洋大学海洋科学学院科研业务费(D-8002-15-8003);广西科学院基本科研业务费(13YJ22HY07);*感谢广东海洋大学“南海海洋环境变化与过程”暑期学校(100203/521001024)和广东省近海海洋变化与灾害预警实验室(GLOD)给予资助

Effect of environmental factors on the intensity of Typhoons Wutip and Mirinae in the South China Sea

Haoliang WU¹(), Song HU^1,²()

1. Marine Ecosystem and Environmental Laboratory, College of Marine Sciences, Shanghai Ocean University, Shanghai 201306, China
2. National Oceanic Fisheries Engineering Research Center, Shanghai 201306, China

Received:2017-06-27 Revised:2017-09-26 Online:2018-06-10 Published:2018-05-03
Supported by:
Haiyan Project of Shanghai Ocean University (A2-0203-00-100520);Research Business Expenses of College of Marine Sciences in Shanghai Ocean University (D-8002-15-8003);Basic Research Business Expenses of Guangxi Academy of Sciences (13YJ22HY07)

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

选取了两例迅速增强的南海土台风“蝴蝶”(1321)与“银河”(1603), 分析了其增强时南海及周边海域的高低空环流形势、垂直风切变情况和海洋热状况, 并利用WRF (Weather Research and Forecasting Model, WRF)模式探究两者强度不同的环境原因。“银河”虽具有较有利的海洋下垫面条件, 但并未发展为台风, 是因为不利的高低空环流形势和垂直风切变条件。“蝴蝶”迅速增强为强台风是因为其发生时北方冷空气南下, 西南暖湿气流爆发等有利条件。WRF模式对海表面温度(SST)影响土台风强度的敏感性实验表明, 土台风强度对于SST的响应表现为非线性正相关, SST升高, 土台风增强的速率将减缓。7—9月的南海SST均高于28℃, 已满足土台风增强条件。因此, 在对于土台风的预报中, 需特别注意SST以外的其他环境因子。

关键词: 南海土台风, 环境因子, 海表面温度(SST), 水汽通量

Abstract:

We selected two rapidly intensifying, locally-originated typhoons Wutip (1321) and Mirinae (1603), and analyzed upper- and low-level circulations, vertical wind shear, and ocean heat content in and around the South China Sea during typhoons’ passages over the sea. We also used WRF (Weather Research and Forecasting Model) model to discuss the environmental factors for their different intensities. Although the underlying conditions were more favorable for Mirinae, it did not develop into a strong typhoon due to weak upper- and low-level circulations and strong vertical wind shear. On the contrary, Wutip developed into a super typhoon rapidly due to the cold southward airflow and the outburst of warm humid air from the southwest. The results from WRF model’s sensitivity experiments about the effect of sea surface temperature (SST) on the intensity of locally-originated typhoon indicated that locally-originated typhoon intensity and SST have nonlinear positive correlation. However, as SST increases, the intensification trend of locally-originated typhoon slows down. From July to September, the SST in the South China Sea is higher than 28℃, meeting the condition for typhoon intensification. Therefore, attention should be paid to different environmental factors other than SST in locally-originated typhoons’ forecast in the South China Sea.

Key words: locally-originated typhoon, environmental factor, sea surface temperature (SST), moisture flux

毋浩亮, 胡松. 环境因子对南海土台风“蝴蝶”与“银河”强度的影响^*[J]. 热带海洋学报, 2018, 37(3): 26-34.

Haoliang WU, Song HU. Effect of environmental factors on the intensity of Typhoons Wutip and Mirinae in the South China Sea[J]. Journal of Tropical Oceanography, 2018, 37(3): 26-34.

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实验	SST设置	实验设置
EXP1	关闭	FNL海温场不随时间变化(过程不变)
EXP2	打开	FNL自带海温场每6h变化(过程变化)
EXP3	打开	FNL自带海温场降低1℃每6h变化(过程变化)
EXP4	打开	FNL自带海温场升高1℃每6h变化(过程变化)

环境因子对南海土台风“蝴蝶”与“银河”强度的影响^*

Effect of environmental factors on the intensity of Typhoons Wutip and Mirinae in the South China Sea

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