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热带海洋学报

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珠江河口“湾–门–潮道”最高风暴潮位对地貌演变的响应机制

刘海晨1, 2, 何贤钊1, 2, 杨震1, 2, 张萍3*, 杨清书1, 2

  

  1. 1. 中山大学海洋工程与技术学院, 广东 珠海 519082;

    2. 南方海洋科学与工程广东省实验室(珠海), 广东 珠海 519082;

    3. 河口海岸全国重点实验室(华东师范大学), 上海 200241



  • 收稿日期:2026-08-12 修回日期:2026-09-16 接受日期:2026-09-23
  • 通讯作者: 张萍
  • 基金资助:
    国家重点研发项目(2016YFC0402600)

Response mechanisms of the maximum storm tide level to the morphological evolution of a Bay-Inlet-Channel system in the Pearl River Estuary

LIU Haichen1, 2, HE Xianzhao1, 2, YANG Zhen1, 2, ZHANG Ping3*, YANG Qingshu1, 2    

  1. 1. School of Ocean Engineering and Technology, Sun Yat-Sen University, Zhuhai 519082, China;

    2. Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory(Zhuhai), Zhuhai 519082, China;

    3. State Key Laboratory of Estuarine and Coastal Research, East China Normal University, Shanghai 200241, China


  • Received:2026-08-12 Revised:2026-09-16 Accepted:2026-09-23
  • Supported by:

     National Key R&D of China(2016YFC0402600)

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摘要： 河口是经济发达且风暴频发区域，其最高风暴潮位受风暴增水–天文潮–洪水跨尺度动力耦合影响，同时大规模人类活动引发地貌动力格局演变，研究新格局的风暴潮响应机制对其风险防治具有重要意义。本研究聚焦珠江河口“湾–门–潮道”独特地貌系统，即粤港澳大湾区核心区域，以2017年遇天文大潮的“天鸽”台风为例，采用Delft3D模拟人类活动引起的地貌格局异变前(1960s)、后(2020s)最高风暴潮位变化，并剖析其机制。模拟结果表明，地貌“窄深化”导致最高风暴潮位呈现空间差异：河口湾小幅升高(增幅达0.22m，9%)，虎门基本不变，而潮道大幅升高(0.51m，21%)。因子贡献分析表明，最高风暴潮位对地貌演变的响应由风暴增水主导(占比约40~105%)，其贡献在潮道增幅最大(0.46m，占比90%)，而天文潮贡献(−30~35%)和因子间非线性相互作用贡献(−20~50%)的影响相对较小。根据动量、能量及地貌动力分析，河口湾围垦增强平面辐聚效应，放大风暴增水贡献，是最高风暴潮位升高的主要原因；虎门因不同人类活动效应抵消及能量调节功能保持稳定；潮道则因浚深减弱底摩擦，风暴增水和天文潮贡献增大，显著抬升最高风暴潮位。叠加洪水的“三聚首”情景模拟表明，洪水和非线性相互作用贡献增大，共同导致最高风暴潮位升高(最大0.26m，9%)，加剧风暴潮风险。

关键词: 最高风暴潮位, 湾-门-潮道, 人类活动, 地貌演变, 响应机制

Abstract: Estuaries are economically developed and storm-prone regions where the maximum storm tide level(MXST) is governed by cross-scale coupling among storm surge, astronomical tide, and river flood, while large-scale human activities reshape morphological-hydrodynamic patterns. Understanding storm-tide response mechanisms under the altered morphological regime is crucial for storm-tide risk management. Focusing on the Bay-Inlet-Channel(BIC) system of the Pearl River Estuary, as the core region of the Guangdong–Hong Kong–Macao Greater Bay Area(GBA), this study used Typhoon Hato(2017) as a representative event and applied a Delft3D model to examine changes in the MXST before and after intensive human disturbance(1960s and 2020s). In response to the narrowed and deepened morphology, the MXST increased slightly in the Bay(up to 0.22m, 9%), remained nearly unchanged at the Inlet, and increased substantially in the Channel(up to 0.51m, 21%). Factor decomposition showed that MXST responses were dominated by surge-contribution changes(which accounts for 40~105% of MXST variations), with the largest increase in the Channel(0.46m, 90% of the MXST variation), whereas the influences of astronomical-tide(−30~35%) and nonlinear-interaction(−20~50%) contributions were smaller. Mechanism analyses indicate that reclamation-enhanced convergence amplified storm surge in the Bay, causing the slight increase in MXST; offsetting effects among human activities and the energy regulation functions of the Inlet maintained MXST stability; and dredging-induced depth increase weakened bottom friction in the Channel, enhancing both surge and astronomical-tide contributions and thereby dramatically lifting the MXST. Under a “Triple Coincidence” scenario with stronger flooding, increased flood and nonlinear-interaction contributions jointly raised MXST by up to 0.26m(9%), exacerbating storm-tide risks.

Key words: Maximum storm tide level, Bay-Inlet-Channel, human activities, morphological evolution, response mechanism