热带海洋学报 ›› 2023, Vol. 42 ›› Issue (1): 32-42.doi: 10.11978/2021145CSTR: 32234.14.2021145

所属专题: 全球变化专题

• 海洋水文学 • 上一篇    下一篇

台风对珠江口风暴增水的影响分析

高娜1(), 赵明利1, 马毅1, 徐婉明1, 詹海刚2,3, 蔡树群2,3,4,5   

  1. 1.国家海洋局南海规划与环境研究院, 广东 广州 510310
    2.热带海洋环境国家重点实验室(中国科学院南海海洋研究所), 广东 广州 510301
    3.南方海洋科学与工程广东省实验室(广州), 广东 广州 511458
    4.中国科学院南海生态环境工程创新研究院, 广东 广州 510301
    5.中国科学院大学, 北京 100049
  • 收稿日期:2021-10-27 修回日期:2022-03-15 出版日期:2023-01-10 发布日期:2022-03-03
  • 通讯作者: 赵明利。email: zhaomingli@126.com
  • 作者简介:
    高娜(1988—), 女, 山东省新泰市人, 博士研究生, 从事海洋防灾减灾研究。email:
  • 基金资助:
    家重点研发计划(2017YFC1405300); 国家自然科学基金(41890851); 南方海洋科学与工程广东省实验室(广州)人才团队引进重大专项(GML2019ZD0305)

Effect of typhoon on storm surge in the Pearl River Estuary

GAO Na1(), ZHAO Mingli1, MA Yi1, XU Wanming1, ZHAN Haigang2,3, CAI Shuqun2,3,4,5   

  1. 1. South China Sea Institute of Planning and Environmental Research, State Oceanic Administration, Guangzhou 510310, China
    2. State Key Laboratory of Tropical Oceanography of the South China Sea Institute of Oceanology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Guangzhou 510301, China
    3. Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory (Guangzhou), Guangzhou 511458, China
    4. Institution of South China Sea Ecology and Environmental Engineering, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Guangzhou 510301, China
    5. University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
  • Received:2021-10-27 Revised:2022-03-15 Online:2023-01-10 Published:2022-03-03
  • Contact: ZHAO Mingli. email: zhaomingli@126.com
  • Supported by:
    National Key Research and Development Program of China(2017YFC1405300); National Natural Science Foundation of China(41890851); Key Special Project for Introduced Talents Team of Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory (Guangzhou)(GML2019ZD0305)

摘要:

珠江口沿岸风暴潮灾害频发, 且受台风影响显著。本研究对珠江口赤湾站近30 a(1990—2019)的极端增水进行了分析。结果显示: 近年来该区域年平均增水没有显著变化, 但极端风暴增水( 99.9%分位数)强度显著增强(1.62cm·a-1), 意味着极端风暴潮灾害强度不断变大; 在这30a里, 有20a的年最大增水发生于台风期间(占66.7%), 2018年超强台风“山竹”引起的增水峰值达254cm, 为近30a最大的风暴潮灾害事件; 增水对台风的最大响应距离约为500~800km。在台风影响范围内, 增水强度与台风强度呈近似的线性关系, 与距台风中心距离则呈指数关系。分别利用台风强度的不同指标(台风中心最低气压、最大风速和最大风速半径), 结合观测站距台风中心的距离, 对增水进行拟合, 发现风速与距离组合对风暴增水的刻画效果最好[Sw=3.23e-0.0036D×(Γw-3.90)+4.48, R2=0.78, RMSE=9.69cm]。这些研究结果可提升对珠江口风暴潮灾害的认识, 为台风风暴潮模拟提供验证资料, 并为风暴潮灾害风险评估与应对决策提供参考依据。

关键词: 台风, 风暴增水, 珠江口

Abstract:

Storm surge disasters occur frequently along the Pearl River Estuary and are significantly affected by typhoon. This study analyzed the extreme surge at the Chiwan Station in the Pearl River Estuary during the past 30 years (1990-2019). The results show that the average annual storm surge in this region has not changed significantly recent years, but the extreme storm surge (99.9 quantile) has increased greatly (1.62 cm·a-1), which means that the extreme storm surge disasters have continued to increase. In the past 30 years, the annual maximum storm surge in 20 years occurred during typhoons (accounting for 66.7%). In 2018, the maximum storm surge caused by super typhoon “mangkhut” reached 254 cm, which was the largest storm surge disaster in the past 30 years. The maximum response distance of storm surge to typhoon is about 500~800 km. Within the influence range of typhoon, the storm surge has an approximate linear relationship with typhoon intensity, and an exponential relationship with the distance from typhoon center. Different indexes of typhoon intensity (minimum pressure, maximum wind speed and maximum wind speed radius of typhoon center) were used to fit the storm surge with the distance from the observation station to the typhoon center, and it was found that the combination of wind speed and distance had the best description effect on storm surge (Sw=3.23e-0.0036D×Γw-3.90)+4.48, R2=0.78, RMSE=9.69 cm). These results can improve the understanding of local storm surge disaster, provide validation data for typhoon storm surge simulation and reference for storm surge disaster risk assessment and response decision.

Key words: typhoon, storm surge, Pear River Estuary