Journal of Tropical Oceanography >
Variation and mechanisms of autumn tropical cyclones landed in Guangdong
Editor: SUN Cuici
Received date: 2023-04-06
Revised date: 2023-06-09
Online published: 2023-06-19
Supported by
National Natural Science Foundation of China(42276019)
Guangdong Science and Technology Plan Project (Observation, Tropical Marine Environment in Yuexi)
Using the track data of landed tropical cyclones (TCs) during 1949—2021 from Shanghai Typhoon Institute of China Meteorological Administration, this study analyzes the variation and mechanism of TCs landed in autumn in Guangdong area, and compares with the results in summer. The results show that a total of 76 TCs landed in Guangdong in autumn during the past 73 years, accounting for 28.5% of the landed TCs in whole year. The landed TCs in autumn (ALTCs) are mostly in categories of strong typhoon and super typhoon, and the mean peak intensities are stronger than those in summer. 72.4% of the ALTCs generated in the Western North Pacific, a higher portion than summer landed TCs and the average latitude and longitude of TCs generation move southward and eastward. The yearly power dissipation index (PDI) of autumn TCs reaches 0.4×107m3·s−2, comparable to that of summer TCs; during landfall to dissipation, the average duration time of autumn TCs is less, the translation speed is slower and PDI is less than those of summer TCs. In long-term variations, the declining trend and decrease rate of the number of ALTCs is similar to that in summer, while the landing intensity of ALTCs increases with a rate 1.8 times higher than that in summer. The translation speed of ALTCs slows down but with a rate 2.5 times lower than summer TCs, the PDI of ALTCs shows a weaker decreasing trend than summer TCs. Unlike more TCs landed in summer in La Niña year, more ALTCs appeared in El Niño years. The number of ALTCs is related to the ENSO (El Niño-Southern Oscillation) index in previous winter and spring with correlation coefficient of about 0.3. It can be used as an indicator for next-year ENSO prediction. In decadal variability, the correlation coefficients between the number of ALTCs and the PDO (Pacific Decadal Oscillation) index, were -0.51 and 0.68 in the warm phase (1977—1996) and cold phase (1997—2016), respectively. The composite analysis shows that ALTCs can occur with a warm sea surface temperature anomaly in the northern South China Sea, which induced cyclonic atmospheric circulation in the South China and favors TCs landed in Guangdong.
HAN Dingyan , LI Min , HU Rui , XIE Lingling . Variation and mechanisms of autumn tropical cyclones landed in Guangdong[J]. Journal of Tropical Oceanography, 2024 , 43(1) : 64 -78 . DOI: 10.11978/2023044
表1 1949—2021年4—11月西北太平洋和南海生成TCs和登陆广东TCs的数量及比例Tab.1 Generated and landed TCs Numbers in months from April to November and their proportion to total TCs in whole years in the West North Pacific and the South China Sea during 1949—2021 |
月份 | 生成TCs | 登陆TCs | 登陆/生成比 | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
个数 | 占总数比 | 个数 | 占总数比 | ||
4月 | 57 | 4.50% | 2 | 0.80% | 3.50% |
5月 | 96 | 7.70% | 7 | 2.60% | 7.30% |
6月 | 177 | 14.10% | 43 | 16.10% | 24.30% |
7月 | 380 | 30.30% | 68 | 25.50% | 17.90% |
8月 | 545 | 43.40% | 71 | 26.60% | 13.00% |
9月 | 442 | 35.20% | 57 | 21.40% | 12.90% |
10月 | 323 | 25.70% | 16 | 6.00% | 5.00% |
11月 | 200 | 15.90% | 3 | 1.10% | 1.50% |
总计 | 1255 | 267 | 21.30% |
图1 1949—2021年秋季(a)和夏季(b)登陆广东TCs的登陆强度(蓝色柱)及最大强度(红色柱)在不同等级的概率分布Fig. 1 Distribution of landing intensities (blue column) and maximum intensities (red column) of TCs landed in Guangdong in autumn (a) and summer (b) during 1949—2021 |
图8 全年(黑色)、夏季和秋季平均登陆强度和最大强度年际变化a. 登陆近中心最大风速; b. 平均中心最大风速; c. 登陆中心气压; d. 最低中心气压; 虚线表示线性趋势 Fig. 8 Interannual variability of landed TCs’ average intensities and maximum intensities in the whole year (black), autumn (red) and summer (grey). Dashed line represents the linear trend; (a) average landing wind speed; (b) average maximum wind speed; (c) landing pressure; (d) minimum pressure |
图11 全年(黑色)、秋季(红色)和夏季(灰色)登陆广东TCs登陆后活动特征的年际变化a. 消亡时间; b. 登陆后移动速度; c. 登陆后PDI; 虚线表示线性趋势 Fig. 11 Interannual variability of landed TCs’ active characteristics after landed in the whole year (black), autumn (red) and summer (grey), (a. Duration from landfall to dissipation; b. the translation speed after landed; c. the PDI after landed). Dashed lines represent the linear trend |
图13 标准化的(a) 全年(黑线)、秋季(红线)和夏季(灰线)TCs频数与ENSO指数ONI(黑色虚线)的年际变化; (b)秋季(SON)登陆TCs频数与不同季节ENSO指数的超前滞后相关系数, 通过90%显著性检验的相关系数用实心点表示Fig. 13 (a) Variation of standardized landed TCs numbers in the whole year (black line), autumn (red line) and summer (grey line), and annual-mean ENSO index (black dashed line); (b) lag correlations of autumn (SON) landed TCs numbers with ENSO index in each season, the correlation coefficients that pass the 90% significance test are represented by solid dots |
图14 全年(黑线)、秋季(红线)和夏季(灰线)TCs频数与年平均PDO指数(黑色虚线)Fig. 14 The landing TCs numbers in the whole year (black line), autumn (red line) and summer (grey line), and the PDO index (black dashed line) |
表2 TCs频数与不同阶段PDO指数的相关性Tab. 2 The correlation of landing TCs numbers and the PDO index in different phases |
PDO不同位相期 | 全年TCs | 秋季TCs | 夏季TCs |
---|---|---|---|
1954—2016 | r = 0.37, P<0.01 | r = 0.28, P=0.03 | r = 0.33, P<0.01 |
1954—1976(冷) | r = 0.45, P=0.03 | r =-0.10, P=0.63 | r = 0.41, P=0.06 |
1977—1996(暖) | r = 0.24, P=0.32 | r =-0.51, P=0.02 | r = 0.51, P=0.02 |
1997—2016(冷) | r = 0.44, P=0.05 | r = 0.68, P<0.01 | r = 0.21, P=0.39 |
图16 秋季异常环境背景场分析a.有秋登陆TCs; b.无秋登陆TCs; 填色: 海表面温度异常; 矢量箭头: 大环境引导气流; 实线框为本文研究区域; 审图号为GS(2016)2556号 Fig. 16 The composite environmental background in autumn (colors: sea surface temperature anomaly; vectors: large-scale steering flow), the solid line frame represents our study area (a, having autumn landed TCs; b, no autumn landed TCs) |
表3 2003—2021年南海夏季风撤退时间Tab. 3 The time of the South China Sea summer monsoon withdrawal |
年份 | 结束时间 |
---|---|
2003 | 9月第4候(略偏早2候) |
2004 | 9月第4候(略偏早2候) |
2005 | 9月第6候(接近常年) |
2006 | 10月第2候(偏晚2候) |
2007 | 10月第3候(偏晚3候) |
2008 | 10月第2候(偏晚2候) |
2009 | 10月第3候(偏晚3候) |
2010 | 10月第5候(偏晚5候) |
2011 | 10月第3候(偏晚3候) |
2012 | 10月第2候(偏晚2候) |
2013 | 10月第4候(偏晚4候) |
2014 | 9月第6候(接近常年) |
2015 | 10月第2候(偏晚2候) |
2016 | 10月第6候(偏晚6候) |
2017 | 10月第5候(偏晚5候) |
2018 | 9月第5候(略偏早1候) |
2019 | 9月第5候(略偏早1候) |
2020 | 10月第6候(偏晚6候) |
2021 | 10月第5候(偏晚5候) |
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