The GRAPES-TCM (global/regional assimilation and prediction system-tropical cyclone model) is used to make ensemble prediction experiments for typhoon Muifa (1109) in 2011. Three kinds of ensemble schemes are designed for the experiments. Every scheme has six ensemble members, which reflect the uncertainty of the model. The method of multiple physics (MP) is used to form the members of scheme 1. The method of stochastic total tendency perturbation (STTP) is used to form the members of scheme 3. Both the MP method and the STTP method are used to form the members of scheme 2. Thirty-six experiments are made and the integration time is 72 h.
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