红树林生态重建效果预测研究新模式

doi:10.11978/2023088

热带海洋学报 ›› 2024, Vol. 43 ›› Issue (4): 86-97.doi: 10.11978/2023088CSTR: 32234.14.2023088

红树林生态重建效果预测研究新模式

吴鸿博¹(), 罗锋¹^,²^,³(), 陈治澎¹, 朱飞¹, 曾靖伟¹, 张弛¹, 李瑞杰³

1.河海大学港口海岸与近海工程学院, 江苏南京 210098
2.南通河海大学海洋与近海工程研究院, 江苏南通 226004
3.河海大学海岸灾害及防护教育部重点实验室, 江苏南京 210098

收稿日期:2023-06-26 修回日期:2023-09-11 出版日期:2024-07-10 发布日期:2024-07-22
作者简介:
吴鸿博(2000—), 男, 江西南昌人, 硕士研究生, 主要从事河口海岸数值模拟研究。email: alexbala15879@gmail.com
基金资助:
国家重点研发计划项目(2022YFC3106100); 江苏省海洋科技创新项目(JSZRHYKJ202105); 南通社会民生科技计划项目(MS12022009); 南通社会民生科技计划项目(MS22022082); 南通社会民生科技计划项目(MS22022083)

A novel pattern for predicting the effects of mangrove ecological reconstruction

WU Hongbo¹(), LUO Feng¹^,²^,³(), CHEN Zhipeng¹, ZHU Fei¹, ZENG Jingwei¹, ZHANG Chi¹, LI Ruijie³

1. College of Harbour, Coastal and Offshore Engineering, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China
2. Nantong Ocean and Coastal Engineering Research Institute, Hohai University, Nantong 226004, China
3. Key Laboratory of Ministry of Education for Coastal Disaster and Protection, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China

Received:2023-06-26 Revised:2023-09-11 Online:2024-07-10 Published:2024-07-22
Supported by:
National Key Research and Development Program of China(2022YFC3106100); Marine Science and Technology Innovation Project of Jiangsu Province(JSZRHYKJ202105); Nantong Science and Technology Bureau(MS12022009); Nantong Science and Technology Bureau(MS22022082); Nantong Science and Technology Bureau(MS22022083)

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

红树林是生态文明建设的组成部分, 对实现碳中和目标意义重大, 近年来实施了大量的保护和修复工程。然而, 目前缺少一种预测方法来比选有效的保护措施, 以指导红树林的生态重建工作。因此, 提出了一种“数值模拟模型+分类模型”的研究新模式。在模式应用中, 模拟了广东省柘林湾一年的水沙动力环境。通过考虑淹没时间、相对峰值底床切应力和底床高程变化, 描述了红树定植过程中所受到的胁迫, 对4种条件下笠港潮汐汊道内侧滩涂红树林的生态重建效果做出了预测。结果表明, 恢复汊道水深会轻微改变区域的水动力和泥沙冲淤环境, 导致生态重建成功率降低了3.12%; 提高区域底床高程会显著减小流速并加剧外侧冲刷, 提高0.5m和1.0m的高程分别使生态重建成功率提升了16.43%和32.75%。

关键词: 红树林, 生态修复, 数值模拟, 逻辑回归, 柘林湾

Abstract:

Mangroves are an integral part of ecological civilization and hold significant importance in achieving carbon neutrality goals. In recent years, numerous conservation and restoration efforts have been undertaken to protect mangrove ecosystems. However, there is currently a lack of predictive methods for comparing and selecting effective conservation measures to guide mangrove ecological reconstruction. Therefore, a novel research approach combining “numerical simulation models” with “classification models” is proposed. In the application of this approach, the hydrodynamic and sedimentary environment of the Zhelin Bay in Guangdong Province was simulated for one year. By considering factors such as flooding time, relative peak bed shear stress, and bed level change, the stressors faced during the process of mangrove colonization were described. And ecological reconstruction effects of mangroves distributed on the inner tidal flats of the Ligang tidal inlet were predicted under four different conditions. The results indicate that restoring the inlet depth slightly alters the regional hydrodynamics and sediment environment, leading to a decrease of 3.12% in the success rate of ecological reconstruction. Elevating the bed elevation significantly reduces flow velocity and intensifies outer-side scouring. Raising the elevation by 0.5 meters and 1.0 meter increases the success rate of ecological reconstruction by 16.43% and 32.75%, respectively.

Key words: mangroves, ecological restoration, numerical simulation, logistic regression, Zhelin Bay

吴鸿博, 罗锋, 陈治澎, 朱飞, 曾靖伟, 张弛, 李瑞杰. 红树林生态重建效果预测研究新模式[J]. 热带海洋学报, 2024, 43(4): 86-97.

WU Hongbo, LUO Feng, CHEN Zhipeng, ZHU Fei, ZENG Jingwei, ZHANG Chi, LI Ruijie. A novel pattern for predicting the effects of mangrove ecological reconstruction[J]. Journal of Tropical Oceanography, 2024, 43(4): 86-97.

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高程条件设置	潮汐汊道恢复区域底床高程	生态修复区域滩面高程
条件1	原始高程	原始高程
条件2	-3.0m	原始高程
条件3	-3.0m	加高0.5m
条件4	-3.0m	加高1.0m

参数	取值	单位
曼宁系数	0.0167	m^-1/3·s
沉降速度系数	10	m·s^-1
临界沉积切应力	0.12	N·m^-2
侵蚀系数	5×10^-5	kg·s·m^-2
临界侵蚀切应力	0.25	N·m^-2
底床密度	800	kg ·m^-3
底床糙率	0.0001	m

红树林生态重建效果预测研究新模式

A novel pattern for predicting the effects of mangrove ecological reconstruction

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