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热带海洋学报

• • 上一篇    

南海土台风时空变化特征分析

梁顺1，黄桂槟1 何国梅2, 张永垂1, 周毅3, 汪洋1, 洪梅1   

  1. 1. 国防科技大学气象海洋学院, 湖南 长沙 410073;

    2. 中国人民解放军92886部队, 山东 青岛 266300;

    3. 中国人民解放军92682部队, 广东 湛江 524002

  • 收稿日期:2025-05-13 修回日期:2025-07-21 接受日期:2025-08-01
  • 通讯作者: 张永垂

Spatial—temporal Variation Characteristics of Local typhoons in the South China Sea

LIANG Shun1, HUANG Guibin 1, HE Guomei2, ZHANG Yongchui1, ZHOU Yi3, WANG Yang1, HONG Mei1   

  1. 1. College of Meteorology and Oceanography of National University of Defense Technology, Changsha 410073, China;

    2. Unit No.92886 of Chinese People's Liberation Army, Qingdao 266100, China;

    3. Unit No.92682 of Chinese People's Liberation Army, Zhanjiang 524002, China

  • Received:2025-05-13 Revised:2025-07-21 Accepted:2025-08-01

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摘要：

南海局地生成台风简称土台风, 西北太平洋生成进入南海的台风简称洋台风。土台风具有突发性强、路径复杂、预报难度大等特点, 给区域防灾减灾带来挑战, 亟需开展系统性统计研究以提升对其发生发展规律的认知。当前对南海土台风的研究相对零散, 存在长期资料系统分析不足以及与洋台风对比不充分等问题, 限制对其气候特征的深入理解。本文基于1949—2024年中国气象局热带气旋最佳路径数据集, 系统分析了南海土台风的频数、强度、路径及源地分布特征, 并与洋台风进行对比, 揭示其时空变化模式。主要结论: (1)土台风年均生成5.86个; 年内分布呈单峰型, 6—10月为高发期(78.9%), 其中9月最多(21.7%), 年频数存在显著下降线性趋势(-0.05个·年-1); (2)土台风中心最低气压年均值位于965~999.5hPa且存在显著的下降线性趋势, 路径以西/西北行为主, 源地多位于南海中北部; (3)与洋台风相比, 土台风强度偏弱(土台风仅13.7%为台风及以上等级, 洋台风达61.7%, 土台风ACE (accumulated cyclone energy index) 指数和持续天数都更少, 但变化迅速, 登陆比例更高, 更具突发性与局地性。本研究为深入理解南海土台风的形成机制与气候规律提供了重要数据支撑, 也为提高区域防灾减灾预警能力与灾害风险管理策略制定提供参考。

关键词: 南海, 土台风, 时空分布, 强度, 源地特征

Abstract:

Locally generated typhoons in the South China Sea (referred to as "local typhoons") exhibit characteristics such as strong abruptness, complex trajectories, and high forecasting difficulty, posing significant challenges to regional disaster prevention and mitigation. Systematic statistical research is urgently needed to enhance understanding of their genesis and developmental patterns. In contrast, typhoons originating in the Northwest Pacific outside the South China Sea and entering this region are termed "non—local typhoons". Current research on local typhoons remains fragmented, with insufficient systematic analysis of long-term data and inadequate comparisons with non—local typhoons, limiting in-depth comprehension of their climatic characteristics. Based on the CMA(China meteorological administration) Northwest Pacific typhoon best-track dataset (1949-2024), this study systematically analyzes the frequency, intensity, trajectories, and genesis distribution characteristics of local typhoons in the South China Sea, comparing them with non—local typhoons to reveal their spatiotemporal patterns. Key findings: (1) The annual average number of local typhoons is 5.86, showing a unimodal seasonal distribution with peak occurrence from June to October (78.9% of total), particularly in September (21.7%), and exhibiting a significant decreasing trend (-0.05·a-1); (2) Local typhoons have an annual average minimum central pressure ranging between 965~999.5 hPa with a significant decreasing trend, predominantly follow west/northwestward trajectories, and mostly originate in the central-northern South China Sea; (3) Compared with non—local typhoons, local typhoons are generally weaker (only 13.7% reach typhoon intensity or above versus 61.7% for non—local typhoons) but intensify more rapidly, with higher landfall proportions, greater abruptness, and stronger locality. This study provides critical data support for understanding the formation mechanisms and climatic patterns of local typhoons, while offering references for improving regional disaster early warning capabilities and risk management strategies.

Key words: South China Sea, Local typhoon, Spatial—temporal distribution, Strength Source characteristics