南海土台风时空变化特征分析

doi:10.11978/2025064

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

南海局地生成的台风简称土台风, 西北太平洋生成进入南海的台风简称洋台风。土台风具有突发性强、路径复杂、预报难度大等特点, 给区域防灾减灾带来挑战, 亟需开展系统性统计研究以提升对其发生发展规律的认知。当前对南海土台风的研究相对零散, 存在长期资料系统分析不足以及与洋台风对比不充分等问题, 限制对其气候特征的深入理解。文章基于1949—2024年中国气象局热带气旋最佳路径数据集, 系统分析了南海土台风的频数、强度、路径及源地分布特征, 并与洋台风进行对比, 揭示其时空变化模式。主要结论: 1) 土台风年均生成5.86个, 年内分布呈单峰型, 6—10月为高发期(78.9%), 其中9月最多(21.7%), 年频数存在显著下降线性趋势(-0.05个·a^-1); 2) 土台风中心最低气压年均值位于965.0~999.5hPa, 存在显著的下降线性趋势, 路径以西/西北行为主, 源地多位于南海中北部; 3) 与洋台风相比, 土台风强度偏弱, 仅13.7%的土台风为台风及以上等级, 而洋台风可达61.7%, 土台风累积气旋能量指数(accumulated cyclone energy index, ACE)和持续天数都更少, 但变化迅速, 登陆比例更高, 更具突发性与局地性。

关键词: 南海, 土台风, 时空分布, 强度, 源地特征

Abstract:

Locally generated typhoons in the South China Sea (SCS), referred to as “local typhoons”, are characterized by strong abruptness, complex trajectories, and high forecasting difficulty, posing significant challenges to regional disaster prevention and mitigation. Systematic statistical research is urgently needed to enhance understanding of their genesis and evolution patterns. For comparison, typhoons originating in the Northwest Pacific outside the SCS and entering the region are termed “non-local typhoons”. Current research on local typhoons remains fragmented, with insufficient systematic analysis of long-term data and inadequate comparison with non-local typhoons, limiting the in-depth understanding of their climatic characteristics. Based on the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) Northwest Pacific typhoon best-track dataset (1949-2024), this study systematically analyzes the frequency, intensity, trajectories, and genesis distribution of local typhoons in the SCS, with comparisons to non-local typhoons, to reveal their spatiotemporal variation patterns. Key findings include: 1) The annual average number of local typhoons is 5.86, showing a unimodal seasonal distribution with peak occurrence from June to October (accounting for 78.9% of the total), especially in September (21.7%), and exhibiting a significant decreasing trend (-0.05·a^-1); 2) Local typhoons have an annual average minimum central pressure ranging from 965.0 to 999.5 hPa, also showing a significant decreasing trend, predominantly follow westward or northwestward trajectories, and mostly originate in the central and northern SCS; 3) Compared with non-local typhoons, local typhoons are generally weaker (only 13.7% reach typhoon intensity or above, versus 61.7% for non-local typhoons), but intensify more rapidly, with higher landfall proportions, greater abruptness, and stronger locality. This study provides critical data support for understanding the formation mechanisms and climatic patterns of local typhoons, while offering a reference for improving regional disaster early warning capabilities and risk management strategies.

Key words: South China Sea, local typhoon, spatiotemporal distribution, intensity, genesis characteristics

中图分类号:

P732.31

梁顺, 黄桂槟, 何国梅, 张永垂, 周毅, 汪洋, 洪梅. 南海土台风时空变化特征分析[J]. 热带海洋学报, 2026, 45(2): 59-70.

LIANG Shun, HUANG Guibin, HE Guomei, ZHANG Yongchui, ZHOU Yi, WANG Yang, HONG Mei. Analysis of spatiotemporal variation characteristics of local typhoons in the South China Sea[J]. Journal of Tropical Oceanography, 2026, 45(2): 59-70.

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对比项目	土台风特征	洋台风特征	差异说明
生成频数	共445个, 年均5.86个, 年频数存在下降趋势	共619个, 年均8.14个, 无显著线性趋势	洋台风年均生成量显著多于土台风, 二者基本不相关
强度特征	热带低压为主(39.8%), 中心气压平均989.8hPa, 强度突变快, ACE指数小, 持续时间短(4.66d)	台风和超强台风为主(23.7%和21.0%), 中心气压平均961.3hPa, 强度变化慢, ACE指数大, 持续时间长(8.00d)	洋台风强度更高, 发展更缓慢; 土台风强度变化更具突发性; 洋台风ACE指数更大, 持续时间更长
活动区域	东北—西南分布, 集中南海中北部, 直接登陆比例高(海南岛、广东)	西北—东南分布, 主要分布菲律宾东西两侧, 登陆区域分散(中国华南至越南)	土台风活动范围小但登陆集中; 洋台风活动范围广且路径多样
移动特征	西/西北行路径为主, 陆上活动不超过30°N, 生命周期较短	西北/转向路径为主, 可深入内陆, 中国台湾岛东侧活动更频繁	土台风受南海局地环流影响显著; 洋台风受大尺度环流主导