南海发展与不发展热带扰动特征差异的对比分析

doi:10.11978/j.issn.1009-5470.2015.03.005

热带海洋学报 ›› 2015, Vol. 34 ›› Issue (3): 36-47.doi: 10.11978/j.issn.1009-5470.2015.03.005CSTR: 32234.14.j.issn.1009-5470.2015.03.005

南海发展与不发展热带扰动特征差异的对比分析

郭智亮^{1, 2}, 黎伟标¹, 王磊³, 刘昊亚¹

1. 中山大学环境科学与工程学院大气科学系, 广东广州 510275; 2. 中国民用航空中南地区空中交通管理局, 广东广州 510403; 3. 热带海洋环境国家重点实验室(中国科学院南海海洋研究所), 广东广州 510301;

收稿日期:2014-07-07 修回日期:2014-10-11 出版日期:2015-06-08 发布日期:2015-06-08
通讯作者: 黎伟标, 教授, 主要从事海气相互作用和热带气象学研究。E-mail: eeslwb@mail.sysu.edu.cn
作者简介:郭智亮(1989~), 男, 硕士研究生, 江西省萍乡市人, 从事热带气象学研究。E-mail: guozhiliang2010@163.com
基金资助:
国家重点基础研究发展计划(“973”)项目(2011CB403500); 中国科学院战略性先导科技专项(A类)(XDA11010104); 国家自然科学基金项目(41205026、41375050); 中国科学院知识创新工程青年人才领域前沿项目(SQ201208)

Comparison of developing and non-developing tropical disturbances over the South China Sea

GUO Zhi-liang^{1, 2}, LI Wei-biao¹, WANG Lei³, LIU Hao-ya¹

1. Department of Atmospheric Sciences, School of Environmental Science and Engineering, Sun Yat-Sen University, Guangzhou, 510275, China; 2. Middle South Regional Air Traffic Management Bureau of Civil Aviation of China, Guangzhou 510403, China; 3. State Key Laboratory of Tropical Oceanography (South China Sea Institute of Oceanography, Chinese Academy of Sciences), Guangzhou; 510301, China

Received:2014-07-07 Revised:2014-10-11 Online:2015-06-08 Published:2015-06-08

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 热带扰动是热带地区重要的天气系统, 可能有机会发展为热带气旋。文章利用卫星遥感和再分析资料对比了南海能够发展和不能够发展为热带气旋的热带扰动的特征差异。结果表明: 南海发展和不发展热带扰动的时空分布具有显著的区域性和季节性; 发展的热带扰动具有更慢的移动速度和更长的持续时间。比较热带扰动对应的气象因子, 结果显示决定南海热带扰动能否发展的关键气象因子包括: 850hPa相对涡度、垂直风切变、850hPa与500hPa大气温度差、向外长波辐射(OLR)和中层大气相对湿度, 并且利用这些关键气象因子构建了判别南海热带扰动能否发展的预报方程。研究结果有助于提高我们对南海热带扰动发展和热带气旋生成的早期预报能力。

关键词: 热带扰动, 热带气旋, 南海, 气旋生成

Abstract: Tropical disturbances are part of the important weather systems in the tropical regions and have the potential to develop into tropical cyclones. In this study, the characteristics of developing and non-developing tropical disturbances over the South China Sea (SCS) were compared using satellite observations and reanalysis datasets. The results revealed that developing and non-developing tropical disturbances have significant regional and seasonal characteristics. The developing tropical disturbances have slower moving speeds and persist for a longer lifetime, compared with the non-developing tropical disturbances over the SCS. By investigating the meteorological variables for tropical disturbances over the SCS, five key environmental factors that could determine a tropical disturbance to develop or not are found, including the 850-hPa relative vorticity, vertical wind shear, the temperature difference between 850 and 500 hPa, the outgoing long wave radiation (OLR), and the mid-level atmospheric relative humidity. A forecasting equation has been developed based on these key meteorological factors to predict whether a tropical disturbance over the SCS will develop or not. These results can help us to better predict tropical disturbance development and tropical cyclone formation over the SCS.

Key words: tropical disturbance, tropical cyclone, South China Sea, cyclogenesis

郭智亮, 黎伟标, 王磊, 刘昊亚. 南海发展与不发展热带扰动特征差异的对比分析[J]. 热带海洋学报, 2015, 34(3): 36-47.

GUO Zhi-liang, LI Wei-biao, WANG Lei, LIU Hao-ya. Comparison of developing and non-developing tropical disturbances over the South China Sea[J]. Journal of Tropical Oceanography, 2015, 34(3): 36-47.

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南海发展与不发展热带扰动特征差异的对比分析

Comparison of developing and non-developing tropical disturbances over the South China Sea

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