Abstract:

The exploration has lasted for 39 years in the eastern Pearl River Mouth Basin, where the process of reserves discovery, compared with that of other basins, has characteristic features in some ways and similar features in some other ways. The factors affecting reserves discovery in the area include internal factors and external factors. The internal factors are the type and geological characteristics of the basin, and the unique marine exploration environment. The external factors include exploration stage, exploration investment, and theory and technology. Based on the oil and gas geological features, exploration history and current situation of the study area, considering various factors influencing the reserves discovery in the area, and by studying and comparing prediction models, we establish the reserves development trend model of the area. We believe that, on the premise that there is sufficient investment, and that both theory and technology develop constantly, the exploration life course of the area can be divided into early stage (1977-2032, the speed of ascertaining reserves is less than 0.7%), peak stage (2033-2081, the speed of ascertaining reserves is greater than 0.7%) and atrophy stage (1982-, the speed of ascertaining reserves is less than 0.7%). At the end of the early stage, about 20% of the oil and gas resources will be found; and at the end of the peak stage, the number is 57%. The peak year is around 2055 when the number is 37%. At present, the study area is in the final phase of the early stage, and the annual proven reserves increase rapidly. The paper serves as a reference for accurately grasping main factors influencing reserves discovery in the area.

Key words: the eastern Pearl River Mouth Basin, proved reserves, influence factors, development tendency of the base value, prediction model