Abstract:

In this study, we comparatively analyzed four designed wave recurrence levels of bivariate joint distribution of wave height and wave period by using Archimedean copula function, Kendall distribution function and survival Kendall distribution function. The annual maximum wave height and corresponding wave period of US Army Corps of Civil Engineers Field Research Facility (FRF) at Duck of North Carolina, US as an example, the “OR” primary return periods, “AND” primary return periods, Kendall return periods and survival Kendall return periods of bivariate joint distribution and the most likely designed wave quantiles were computed by using the optimally fitted Gumbel-Hougaard copula. The main conclusions of this study are summarized as follows: Comparing different specific wave return periods, the Kendall return periods can more accurately reflect wave risks relative to “OR” primary return periods, while the survival Kendall return periods can more accurately reflect wave risks when two wave variables are supercritical at the same time with respect to “AND” primary return periods. The univariate wave height or wave period designed value has reached a higher design standard according to the relevant specifications of the current design requirements. The estimated wave design quantiles of the “OR” primary return periods and two variables with the same frequency are obviously higher than those of univariate wave elements. The most-likely design realizations of the Kendall return periods and the survival Kendall return periods can serve as the new selections for safety and risk management of coastal engineering projects.

Key words: risk assessment, designed wave quantiles, “OR” return period;, “AND” return period;, Kendall return period, Survival Kendall return period