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Journal of Tropical Oceanography

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Study on the influence of environmental steering flow on the track of Hurricane Paulette

SHOU Zehui1, LIU Qiao1, HU Feng2, 3, WANG Gen4   

  1. 1. Anhui Meteorological Observatory, Hefei 230031, China;

    2. Anhui Province Key Laboratory of Physical Geographic Environment, Anhui Engineering Research Center of Remote Sensing and Geoinformatics, Chuzhou University, Chuzhou 239000, China;

    3. Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster (KLME), Ministry of Education & Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters (CIC-FEMD), Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing 210044, China;

    4. School of Electronic Engineering, Chaohu University, Hefei 238000, China

  • Received:2025-05-28 Revised:2025-07-28 Accepted:2025-08-19
  • Supported by:

    The Natural Science Foundation of Anhui Province (2308085QD129, 2408085MD102); the Joint Open Project of Anhui Province Key Laboratory of Physical Geographic Environment (2023PGE05); the Outstanding Youth Science Fund for Universities in Anhui Province of Anhui Province Higher Education Scientific Research Project (2022AH020093)

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Abstract: After forming in 2020, Hurricane Paulette moved northwestward to the northeast of Bermuda, then turned northeast and gradually weakened through extratropical transition. Subsequently, it exhibited an unusual southward turn and regenerated into a tropical cyclone during its southward movement. To investigate the relative contributions of steering flows at different atmospheric levels to Paulette’s track and the influence of various circulation systems on its abrupt turning, numerical simulations were conducted using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. The results indicate that: (1) The regeneration of Hurricane Paulette was closely related to its anomalous southward path, with significantly enhanced sea surface temperatures playing a key role in its redevelopment. (2) During different stages of Paulette’s movement, the dominant steering flows exhibited notable vertical-layer differences. In the early northwestward stage, low- to mid-level steering flows played a leading role, while in the northeastward stage, upper-level components became more dominant. During the critical phase of Paulette’s southward turn, low-level steering flows shifted from westerly to northerly, and this northerly component progressively extended upward, eventually establishing a stable northerly steering flow that caused the cyclone to abruptly turn southward. (3) Initially, Paulette was situated on the southern edge of the subtropical high and moved westward or northwestward under its blocking influence. As Paulette intensified, a break in the subtropical high allowed the cyclone to move northward and merge with a mid-latitude westerly trough. Subsequently, under the influence of southwesterly steering flow ahead of the trough, Paulette moved northeastward. However, with the continued development of a high-pressure ridge to its south and a significant increase in its meridional extent, Paulette was redirected southward under the influence of northerly flow along the eastern flank of the ridge.

Key words: Paulette, steering flow, environmental background field