Journal of Tropical Oceanography ›› 2022, Vol. 41 ›› Issue (5): 1-16.doi: 10.11978/2021121CSTR: 32234.14.2021121

• Marine Hydrology •     Next Articles

Predicting the mesoscale eddy in the tropical and subtropical ocean based on generative adversarial network model

LIU Shuang1,2(), JING Zhiyou1(), ZHAN Haigang1   

  1. 1. State Key Laboratory of Tropical Oceanography (South China Sea Institute of Oceanology, Chinese Academy of Sciences), Guangzhou 510301, China
    2. University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
  • Received:2021-09-07 Revised:2021-12-27 Online:2022-09-10 Published:2021-12-28
  • Contact: JING Zhiyou E-mail:liushuang_57@126.com;jingzhiyou@scsio.ac.cn
  • Supported by:
    National Natural Science Foundation of China(92058201);National Natural Science Foundation of China(41776040);National Natural Science Foundation of China(41949907);National Natural Science Foundation of China(42149907);Original Innovation Project of Basic Frontier Scientific Research Program of CAS(ZDBS-LY-DQC011);Guangzhou Science and Technology Project(201904010420)

Abstract:

Mesoscale eddies occupy more than 90 % of the kinetic energy in oceans, which significantly impact on the oceanic mass and energy cycle. The prediction of mesoscale eddies remains a very essential, but difficult research topic in the current physical oceanography field. Based upon the sea level anomaly (SLA) data measured by satellite altimeter in the last 30 years, this study develops a model for the mesoscale eddy prediction according to the generative adversarial networks (GAN) method and game theory. The results of 28-day prediction, their spatial-temporal distributions, and energy intensities are analyzed with independent samples. The main factors that affect the spatial and temporal accuracies are discussed. The results show that the temporal accuracy of this method can be accepted in about 15 days. For the mesoscale eddies with a radius of 100 ~ 200 km, the prediction error is generally less than 20 % by this method. The mean eddy kinetic energy in the study domain is about 0.875 m2·s-2 and the root mean square error (RMSE) is roughly between 0.02 ~ 0.04 m2·s-2. Furthermore, the results are suggestive of that the prediction is less affected by abnormal weather, and has similar forecasting ability under normal weather conditions and typhoon Nakri. These results provide a reference for further understanding and applying the new method of generative adversarial networks to predict ocean mesoscale eddies.

Key words: generative adversarial networks, the prediction of the mesoscale eddy, sea level anomaly, deep learning methodology

CLC Number: 

  • P731.27