基于GDCSM_Argo的西北太平洋中上层海洋热含量与台风的调控与响应关系初探

doi:10.11978/2025074

热带海洋学报 ›› 2026, Vol. 45 ›› Issue (2): 81-95.doi: 10.11978/2025074CSTR: 32234.14.2025074

基于GDCSM_Argo的西北太平洋中上层海洋热含量与台风的调控与响应关系初探

束波¹(), 张春玲¹^,²^,³(), 苏涵¹, 胡松¹^,²^,³

1.上海海洋大学海洋科学与生态环境学院, 上海 201306
2.上海海洋大学海洋科学与技术实验教学示范中心, 上海 201306
3.自然资源部海洋生态监测与修复技术重点实验室, 上海 201306

收稿日期:2025-06-05 修回日期:2025-07-29 出版日期:2026-03-10 发布日期:2026-03-26
通讯作者: 张春玲
作者简介:
束波(2000—), 男, 江苏省苏州市人, 硕士研究生, 从事海洋动力学方面研究。email: m230200639@st.shou.edu.cn
基金资助:
浮标专项外协项目(D-8006-21-0082)

A preliminary study on the regulatory and responsive relationship between upper and middle ocean heat content and typhoons in the northwestern Pacific based on GDCSM_Argo

SHU Bo¹(), ZHANG Chunling¹^,²^,³(), SU Han¹, HU Song¹^,²^,³

1. College of Marine Sciences, Shanghai Ocean University, Shanghai 201306, China
2. Demonstration Center for Experimental Teaching of Marine Science and Technology, Shanghai Ocean University, Shanghai 201306, China
3. Key Laboratory of Marine Ecological Monitoring and Restoration Technologies, Ministry of Natural Resources, Shanghai 201306, China

Received:2025-06-05 Revised:2025-07-29 Online:2026-03-10 Published:2026-03-26
Contact: ZHANG Chunling
Supported by:
Float Special Outsourcing Project(D-8006-21-0082)

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

作为全球气候变化的关键指标, 海洋热含量能够准确反映地球系统的净能量收支, 其时空变化对台风的产生和发展具有重要影响。文章基于一套长时间序列、多参数的全球温盐再分析数据集(gradient dependent correlation scale method Argo, GDCSM_Argo), 通过滞后回归、相关分析等方法, 初步探讨了中上层海洋热含量对台风的调控与响应作用。结果表明, 近表层海洋热含量直接影响台风发生频率, 而中、下层热含量通过垂直混合为台风提供持续能量, 且各水层热含量对台风的响应均存在1~6个月的时间滞后。台风搅拌引发的“冷尾流”效应显著降低了台风路径上的海洋层结稳定性, 尤其在台风增强海域(10°—25°N, 120°—145°E), 混合层以下的理查森数低值区与台风最大风速位置高度吻合。热含量和台风的响应关系受异常气候条件影响明显: 厄尔尼诺期间, 台风东移作用于温跃层较深的区域, 风搅拌更易穿透至次表层, 将热量向下输送, 暂时削弱层结; 拉尼娜期间, 台风数相对增加, 路径西移, 台风在高热含量的西太平洋活动。

关键词: 海洋热含量, 台风, 调控与响应, 理查森数, 气候变化

Abstract:

As a key indicator of global climate change, ocean heat content (OHC) accurately reflects the net energy budget of the Earth system, and its spatiotemporal variations significantly influence the genesis and intensification of typhoons. Based on the long-term, multi-parameter GDCSM_Argo global ocean reanalysis dataset, this study preliminarily investigates the regulatory and responsive roles of upper- and middle-layer OHC in typhoon activity using lagged regression and correlation analysis. The results demonstrate that near-surface OHC directly modulates typhoon occurrence frequency, while middle and deep OHC sustains typhoon energy through vertical mixing, with all layers exhibiting a lagged response of 1 to 6 months to typhoon activity. The typhoon-induced “cold wake” effect significantly reduces ocean stratification stability along storm tracks, particularly in the typhoon intensification zone (10°—25°N, 120°—145°E), where areas of low Richardson number values below the mixed layer highly coincide with the position of the typhoon’s maximum wind speed. The OHC-typhoon relationship exhibits notable sensitivity to anomalous climate conditions. During El Niño events, typhoons move eastward and affect areas with deeper thermocline layers, making it easier for wind stirring to penetrate the subsurface and transport heat downwards, temporarily weakening stratification. During La Niña events, the number of typhoons increases relatively and their paths shift westward, with typhoons predominantly active in the high-heat-content western Pacific. These findings provide theoretical foundations for further research on ocean-atmosphere interaction mechanisms governing extreme weather events and validate the GDCSM_Argo reanalysis data as a robust resource for systematic air-sea interaction studies.

Key words: ocean heat content, typhoon, regulation and response, Richardson number, climate change

中图分类号:

P732.31

束波, 张春玲, 苏涵, 胡松. 基于GDCSM_Argo的西北太平洋中上层海洋热含量与台风的调控与响应关系初探[J]. 热带海洋学报, 2026, 45(2): 81-95.

SHU Bo, ZHANG Chunling, SU Han, HU Song. A preliminary study on the regulatory and responsive relationship between upper and middle ocean heat content and typhoons in the northwestern Pacific based on GDCSM_Argo[J]. Journal of Tropical Oceanography, 2026, 45(2): 81-95.

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深度	台风参数	滞后月份
深度	台风参数	-6	-5	-4	-3	-2	-1	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
混合层以内	TGN	-0.23	-0.44	-0.62	-0.67	-0.52	-0.20	0.02	0.37	0.64	0.75	0.63	0.28	-0.18
	MMWS	-0.24	-0.38	-0.36	-0.30	-0.22	-0.12	0.02	0.32	0.47	0.45	0.25	0.06	-0.11
	PDI	-0.23	-0.36	-0.44	-0.47	-0.40	-0.19	-0.03	0.28	0.52	0.61	0.49	0.18	-0.17
混合层’300m	TGN	-0.30	-0.40	-0.38	-0.20	-0.03	0.12	-0.10	0.06	0.30	0.36	0.22	0.17	0.05
	MMWS	-0.22	-0.30	-0.28	-0.21	-0.12	0.17	-0.08	0.03	0.00	0.20	0.28	0.15	0.04
	PDI	-0.34	-0.37	-0.32	-0.22	-0.10	0.11	-0.10	0.07	0.20	0.24	0.21	0.18	0.14
300~700m	TGN	0.08	0.25	0.17	0.09	-0.05	-0.20	0.13	0.10	-0.04	-0.02	-0.21	-0.32	-0.23
	MMWS	0.00	0.06	0.03	0.01	-0.03	-0.06	0.21	0.13	-0.14	-0.10	-0.09	-0.14	-0.16
	PDI	-0.03	0.17	0.14	0.07	0.02	-0.17	0.09	0.10	0.02	-0.05	-0.14	-0.28	-0.15
0~2000m	TGN	-0.26	-0.41	-0.54	-0.52	-0.38	-0.14	0.03	0.34	0.54	0.65	0.45	0.15	-0.17
	MMWS	-0.25	-0.36	-0.36	-0.31	-0.21	-0.03	0.06	0.28	0.28	0.34	0.27	0.08	-0.12
	PDI	-0.30	-0.36	-0.40	-0.39	-0.30	-0.13	-0.02	0.28	0.44	0.49	0.38	0.11	-0.10

基于GDCSM_Argo的西北太平洋中上层海洋热含量与台风的调控与响应关系初探

A preliminary study on the regulatory and responsive relationship between upper and middle ocean heat content and typhoons in the northwestern Pacific based on GDCSM_Argo

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