东亚及西太平洋地表温度时空模态分析及预测研究*

doi:10.11978/2022009

Abstract

Abstract:

Land surface temperature (LST) is an important parameter of water cycle and atmospheric environment interworking on the earth's surface (ocean and land), and it is also an essential embodiment of energy transmission between sea and land. Using the LST data retrieved from satellites from 2003 to 2020, this paper analyzes the temporal and spatial modal characteristics of LST by M-K (Mann-Kendall) mutation test, linear regression and empirical orthogonal function (EOF), and uses the seasonal autoregression integrated moving average (SARIMA) model to predict the change trend of LST. It is found that the coastal temperature is high and the inland temperature is low in spring, autumn and winter, decreasing from south to north (10°N—60°N) and from east to west (70°E—140°E); while summer is the opposite. The first mock exam rate of EOF is 29.58%, and the spatial distribution is the Kunlun mountain and Qinling Mountains. It is predicted that after 2020, the range of LST will be -5 ~ 35℃. The results show that: (1) with the increase of latitude and the difference of sea and land location, the LST amplitude in Japan is small, in Mongolia is large, and that in other regions fluctuates stably. (2) The temperature difference between spring and autumn is not significant, and the temperature difference between summer and winter is large, mainly due to solar radiation; Secondly, the monsoon climate is significant. There are many inland mountains and coastal plains, and the land heating effect is less than the water-cooling effect, which will also affect the temperature difference. (3) The changes of LST in East Asia and the Western Pacific are related to human activities, volcanic eruptions and other events.

Key words: land surface temperature, temporal and spatial variation, empirical orthogonal function, Mann-Kendall test

CLC Number:

P423

TANG Chaoli, TAO Xinhua, WEI Yuanyuan, DAI Congming, WEI Heli. Spatiotemporal modal analysis and prediction of surface temperature in East Asia and the Western Pacific^*[J].Journal of Tropical Oceanography, 2022, 41(6): 183-192.

Figures/Tables 10

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Spatiotemporal modal analysis and prediction of surface temperature in East Asia and the Western Pacific^*

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Spatiotemporal modal analysis and prediction of surface temperature in East Asia and the Western Pacific*

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Spatiotemporal modal analysis and prediction of surface temperature in East Asia and the Western Pacific^*