钦州湾表层海水营养盐的月际变化特征及其影响因子研究*

doi:10.11978/2025242

热带海洋学报 ›› 2026, Vol. 45 ›› Issue (4): 162-178.doi: 10.11978/2025242CSTR: 32234.14.2025242

钦州湾表层海水营养盐的月际变化特征及其影响因子研究^*

孙康伟¹(), 廖日权¹^,²^,³(), 李晗¹, 翁培耀⁴, 唐建辉¹^,²^,⁵

¹ 北部湾大学, 海洋学院, 广西钦州 535011
² 平陆运河河口海湾生态系统广西野外科学观测研究站(北部湾大学海洋学院), 广西钦州 535011
³ 广西海洋环境灾害过程与生态保护技术重点实验室(北部湾大学海洋学院), 广西钦州 535011
⁴ 钦州市海洋环境监测预报中心, 广西钦州 535011
⁵ 中国科学院烟台海岸带研究所, 海岸带环境过程与生态修复重点研究室, 山东烟台 264003

收稿日期:2025-12-18 修回日期:2025-12-28 出版日期:2026-07-10 发布日期:2026-07-31
通讯作者: 廖日权。email: liaorq@bbgu.edu.cn
作者简介:
孙康伟(2000—), 女, 山东省临沂人, 硕士研究生, 从事海洋化学研究。email: kangweisun@foxmail.com
*感谢北部湾大学海洋学院以及其他合作单位对本研究的支持。感谢审稿专家提出宝贵意见
基金资助:
广西高校中青年教师基础能力提升项目(2021KY0440); 国家自然科学基金(42476043); 钦州市科研与技术开发项目(202116623); 中国大学生创新创业训练计划项目(S202411607021)

Monthly variability of nutrient concentrations and influencing factors in surface seawater of Qinzhou Bay^*

SUN Kangwei¹(), LIAO Riquan¹^,²^,³(), LI Han¹, WENG Peiyao⁴, TANG Jianhui¹^,²^,⁵

¹ College of Marine Sciences, Beibu Gulf University, Qinzhou 535011, China
² Pinglu Canal and Beibu Gulf Coastal Ecosystem Observation and Research Station of Guangxi, College of Marine Sciences, Beibu Gulf University, Qinzhou 535011, China
³ Guangxi Key Laboratory of Marine Environmental Disaster Processes and Ecological Protection Technology, College of Marine Sciences, Beibu Gulf University, Qinzhou 535011, China
⁴ Qinzhou Marine Environment Monitoring and Forecasting Center, Qinzhou 535011, China
⁵ Key Laboratory of Coastal Environmental Processes and Ecological Remediation, Yantai Institute of Coastal Zone Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Yantai 264003, China

Received:2025-12-18 Revised:2025-12-28 Online:2026-07-10 Published:2026-07-31
Contact: LIAO Riquan. email: liaorq@bbgu.edu.cn
Supported by:
Project for Enhancing Young and Middle-aged Teacher's Research Basis Ability in Colleges of Guangxi(2021KY0440); National Natural Science Foundation of China(42476043); Scientific Research and Technology Development project of Qinzhou(202116623); China College Students' Innovation and Entrepreneurship Training Program Project(S202411607021)

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

河口海湾是陆海交汇的重要纽带。钦州湾作为平陆运河的重要入海口, 其营养盐含量是维系该区域近海生态系统结构健康与功能稳定的基础。本文基于2024年6月至2025年5月对钦州湾的航次调查数据, 分析了钦州湾表层海水营养盐的月际变化特征, 结合随机森林回归模型量化识别营养盐分布的影响因子, 探讨了该区域富营养化状况。结果显示, 钦州湾内溶解无机氮(dissolved inorganic nitrogen, DIN)月均浓度范围为(0.12±0.22)~(0.95±0.92)mg∙L⁻¹, 年内整体符合第四类海水水质标准; 相较于DIN, 溶解无机磷(dissolved inorganic phosphorus, DIP)污染程度较轻, 月均浓度范围为(0.006±0.001)~(0.043±0.019)mg∙L^-1, 符合第二、三类海水水质标准。各月DIN和溶解硅酸盐(dissolved silica, DSi)高值区均出现在钦江河口, 而DIP高值区则在河口与茅尾海养殖区之间表现出月际迁移特征; 钦州湾长期处于富营养化状态, 对比富营养化指数(eutrophication index, EI)和营养质量指数(nutrient quality index, NQI)两种评价方法发现, 二者在高风险时段(2024年6—8月和2025年5月)评价结果高度一致, 但在中低风险时段评价分级结果存在显著差异。EI、NQI与DIN浓度整体呈显著正相关, 与盐度呈显著负相关, 表明陆源输入是钦州湾富营养化月际动态变化的关键影响因子。除淡水输入是DIN与DIP的主要来源外, 化学需氧量也是DIP空间变异的重要影响因子, 重要性占比为32.70%。长期变化趋势分析显示, 1983—2024年钦州湾DIN与DIP浓度呈快速上升态势, 营养盐长期累积特征显著。尽管近年来氮磷管控取得阶段性成效, 但城镇化进程中的人口集聚、产业扩张及农业施肥量波动, 仍是海域氮磷污染较重的主要原因。本研究为深入理解钦州湾营养盐月际迁移转化规律、富营养化动态以及营养盐的年际变化提供了科学依据, 也为该海域富营养化的精准防治提供了理论支持。

关键词: 平陆运河, 钦州湾, 营养盐, 溶解无机氮, 溶解无机磷

Abstract:

Estuaries and bays are crucial links between land and sea. The nutrient levels in Qinzhou Bay, a critical estuary of the Pinglu Canal, are fundamental to preserving both the structural health and functional stability of the coastal ecosystem in this region. This study systematically investigated monthly variations of nutrients in surface seawater of Qinzhou Bay from June 2024 to May 2025. Key nutrient-influencing factors were identified using a random forest regression model and the eutrophication status was assessed. Monthly average concentrations of dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN) ranged from (0.12±0.22) to (0.95±0.92) mg∙L⁻¹ in Qinzhou Bay, mostly meeting the Class Ⅳ seawater quality standard. Pollution levels of dissolved inorganic phosphorus (DIP) were relatively low, with monthly average concentrations ranging from (0.006±0.001) to (0.043±0.019) mg∙L⁻¹, meeting the Class Ⅱ and Ⅲ seawater quality standards. The high-value areas of monthly DIN and dissolved silica (DSi) concentrations consistently occurred in the Qinjiang River estuary, while the high-value areas of DIP exhibited inter-monthly migration between the estuary and the aquaculture area of Maowei Sea. Qinzhou Bay has been under eutrophic conditions for extended periods. Using the eutrophication index (EI) and nutrient quality index (NQI) methods, the study found that the two methods matched consistently in high eutrophication periods (June to August 2024, May 2025), but showed significant differences in medium and low eutrophication periods. Both EI and NQI were significantly positively correlated with DIN concentration and significantly negatively correlated with salinity, indicating that land-based freshwater input is the key contributor to eutrophication in Qinzhou Bay. Apart from freshwater input being the main source of DIN and DIP, chemical oxygen demand is also an important factor influencing the spatial variation of DIP, accounting for 32.70% of the total feature importance. Long-term trend analysis showed that the concentrations of DIN and DIP in Qinzhou Bay have increased rapidly from 1983 to 2024, with significant long-term accumulation of nutrients. Although there have been some phased achievements in nitrogen and phosphorus control in recent years, population growth during urbanization, industrial expansion, and fluctuations in agricultural fertilizer application remain the main reasons for the severe pollution of nitrogen and phosphorus in this sea area. This study provides a scientific basis for a deeper understanding of the monthly variations and transformation of nutrients, the dynamics of eutrophication and the interannual changes in nutrients in Qinzhou Bay, and also offers theoretical support for the targeted prevention and control of eutrophication in this sea area.

Key words: Pinglu Canal, Qinzhou Bay, nutrients, DIN, DIP

中图分类号:

P734

孙康伟, 廖日权, 李晗, 翁培耀, 唐建辉. 钦州湾表层海水营养盐的月际变化特征及其影响因子研究^*[J]. 热带海洋学报, 2026, 45(4): 162-178.

SUN Kangwei, LIAO Riquan, LI Han, WENG Peiyao, TANG Jianhui. Monthly variability of nutrient concentrations and influencing factors in surface seawater of Qinzhou Bay^*[J]. Journal of Tropical Oceanography, 2026, 45(4): 162-178.

图/表 11

图1

图2

表1

2024年6月－2025年5月钦州湾表层海水的环境因子和富营养化指数"

时间	区域	pH	S/‰	DO含量/(mg∙L⁻¹)	COD含量/(mg∙L⁻¹)	Chl a含量 /(μg∙L⁻¹)	T/℃	DIN浓度 /(mg∙L⁻¹)	DIP浓度 /(mg∙L⁻¹)	DSi浓度/(mg∙L⁻¹)	DIN/DIP	EI	NQI
2024-06	钦州湾	8.23 ± 0.83	11.39 ± 9.57	7.16 ± 0.63	2.51 ± 0.69	3.66 ± 3.07	31.59 ± 1.30	0.70 ± 0.41	0.031 ± 0.027	1.98 ± 1.52	69.45 ± 42.40	19.26 ± 26.58	4.84 ± 2.41
2024-07	钦州湾	5.77 ± 0.31	11.01 ± 8.88	6.47 ± 1.36	4.15 ± 1.09	1.92 ± 0.74	29.29 ± 0.68	0.95 ± 0.92	0.043 ± 0.019	2.80 ± 1.38	39.28 ± 39.19	44.55 ± 42.33	6.39 ± 3.47
2024-08	钦州湾	8.03 ± 0.53	15.72 ± 8.41	5.95 ± 1.17	1.59 ± 0.32	2.53 ± 2.78	31.61 ± 0.59	0.59 ± 0.44	0.027 ± 0.016	1.68 ± 0.87	55.10 ± 51.85	6.85 ± 6.73	3.91 ± 1.51
2024-09	钦州湾	8.08 ± 0.58	14.12 ± 9.79	6.81 ± 0.69	1.32 ± 0.84	2.59 ± 2.24	30.53 ± 0.46	0.73 ± 0.66	0.011 ± 0.011	2.52 ± 1.31	175.35 ± 145.20	4.44 ± 6.79	3.80 ± 2.60
2024-10	钦州湾	7.25 ± 0.40	22.17 ± 7.29	6.67 ± 0.22	1.01 ± 0.59	1.69 ± 0.75	27.39 ± 1.62	0.32 ± 0.40	0.006 ± 0.001	1.50 ± 1.19	110.96 ± 121.11	0.76 ± 1.56	1.96 ± 1.51
2024-11	钦州湾	8.15 ± 1.02	23.24 ± 8.19	8.25 ± 0.27	0.43 ± 0.30	1.69 ± 0.44	20.46 ± 0.72	0.42 ± 0.56	0.010 ± 0.008	1.44 ± 1.09	105.54 ± 140.60	1.40 ± 2.59	2.41 ± 1.98
2024-12	钦州湾	8.22 ± 0.60	27.52 ± 3.86	9.14 ± 0.62	1.62 ± 0.71	1.55 ± 0.62	16.37 ± 0.96	0.25 ± 0.30	0.026 ± 0.020	0.52 ± 0.53	23.08 ± 16.63	5.28 ± 9.24	2.49 ± 1.71
2025-01	钦州湾	8.31 ± 0.09	26.94 ± 3.54	10.12 ± 0.18	1.14 ± 0.44	2.17 ± 0.71	15.40 ± 0.43	0.12 ± 0.22	0.019 ± 0.012	0.20 ± 0.25	10.70 ± 10.41	1.86 ± 5.89	1.62 ± 0.64
2025-02	钦州湾	8.11 ± 0.13	28.11 ± 3.67	9.56 ± 0.21	0.79 ± 0.41	1.61 ± 0.46	16.01 ± 0.80	0.23 ± 0.30	0.027 ± 0.023	0.34 ± 0.28	17.15 ± 17.90	2.36 ± 3.59	2.10 ± 1.40
2025-03	钦州湾	8.05 ± 0.10	27.48 ± 3.54	8.32 ± 0.70	1.22 ± 0.60	5.25 ± 5.35	23.28 ± 1.25	0.23 ± 0.27	0.019 ± 0.014	0.26 ± 0.22	81.70 ± 158.70	1.13 ± 1.31	2.80 ± 2.08
2025-04	钦州湾	7.92 ± 0.20	27.07 ± 4.64	7.94 ± 0.61	1.37 ± 0.66	10.86 ± 21.46	25.72 ± 0.97	0.26 ± 0.29	0.033 ± 0.041	0.36 ± 0.31	64.09 ± 194.23	4.91 ± 10.79	4.60 ± 5.06
2025-05	钦州湾	7.91 ± 0.28	23.36 ± 6.95	7.42 ± 0.93	1.69 ± 0.85	4.87 ± 2.21	29.73 ± 2.25	0.43 ± 0.36	0.036 ± 0.030	0.84 ± 0.72	27.86 ± 19.11	36.52 ± 41.81	5.45 ± 1.99
2024-06至2025-05	茅尾海	7.62 ± 0.69	16.19 ± 8.51	7.63 ± 1.46	1.93 ± 1.06	3.74 ± 4.41	24.66 ± 6.34	0.69 ± 0.34	0.036 ± 0.019	1.82 ± 1.29	88.81 ± 70.49	19.53 ± 24.88	4.96 ± 2.05
	外湾	8.04 ± 0.75	26.94 ± 4.18	8.04 ± 1.16	1.20 ± 0.79	3.17 ± 1.56	24.87 ± 6.33	0.17 ± 0.13	0.012 ± 0.005	0.58 ± 0.50	40.89 ± 37.53	1.35 ± 2.02	2.08 ± 0.91
	钦州湾	7.84 ± 0.71	21.51 ± 6.63	7.82 ± 1.31	1.57 ± 0.96	3.37 ± 2.68	24.78 ± 6.29	0.44 ± 0.20	0.024 ± 0.011	1.20 ± 0.48	65.02 ± 48.02	10.78 ± 14.85	3.53 ± 1.54
	(均值与范围)	(5.52~10.38)	(0.11~31.59)	(3.56~10.48)	(0.08~5.83)	(0.42~20.17)	(14.40~35.74)	(0.01~2.76)	(0.001~0.191)	(0.02~5.12)	(1.03~887.04)	(0.003~158.13)	(0.57~23.54)

表1

图3

图4

图5

图6

图7

表2

图8

图9

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特征名称	DIN特征重要性	DIP特征重要性	DSi特征重要性
盐度	66.20%	10.90%	82.70%
COD	14.60%	32.70%	4.60%
pH	6.20%	18.70%	2.40%
DO	5.40%	7.80%	4.70%
Chl a	4.10%	14.20%	4.00%
T	3.40%	15.60%	1.60%

钦州湾表层海水营养盐的月际变化特征及其影响因子研究^*

Monthly variability of nutrient concentrations and influencing factors in surface seawater of Qinzhou Bay^*

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钦州湾表层海水营养盐的月际变化特征及其影响因子研究*

Monthly variability of nutrient concentrations and influencing factors in surface seawater of Qinzhou Bay*

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钦州湾表层海水营养盐的月际变化特征及其影响因子研究^*

Monthly variability of nutrient concentrations and influencing factors in surface seawater of Qinzhou Bay^*