南海土台风时空变化特征分析

doi:10.11978/2025064

Abstract

Abstract:

Locally generated typhoons in the South China Sea (SCS), referred to as “local typhoons”, are characterized by strong abruptness, complex trajectories, and high forecasting difficulty, posing significant challenges to regional disaster prevention and mitigation. Systematic statistical research is urgently needed to enhance understanding of their genesis and evolution patterns. For comparison, typhoons originating in the Northwest Pacific outside the SCS and entering the region are termed “non-local typhoons”. Current research on local typhoons remains fragmented, with insufficient systematic analysis of long-term data and inadequate comparison with non-local typhoons, limiting the in-depth understanding of their climatic characteristics. Based on the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) Northwest Pacific typhoon best-track dataset (1949—2024), this study systematically analyzes the frequency, intensity, trajectories, and genesis distribution of local typhoons in the SCS, with comparisons to non-local typhoons, to reveal their spatiotemporal variation patterns. Key findings include: 1) The annual average number of local typhoons is 5.86, showing a unimodal seasonal distribution with peak occurrence from June to October (accounting for 78.9% of the total), especially in September (21.7%), and exhibiting a significant decreasing trend (-0.05·a^-1); 2) Local typhoons have an annual average minimum central pressure ranging from 965.0 to 999.5 hPa, also showing a significant decreasing trend, predominantly follow westward or northwestward trajectories, and mostly originate in the central and northern SCS; 3) Compared with non-local typhoons, local typhoons are generally weaker (only 13.7% reach typhoon intensity or above, versus 61.7% for non-local typhoons), but intensify more rapidly, with higher landfall proportions, greater abruptness, and stronger locality. This study provides critical data support for understanding the formation mechanisms and climatic patterns of local typhoons, while offering a reference for improving regional disaster early warning capabilities and risk management strategies.

Key words: South China Sea, local typhoon, spatiotemporal distribution, intensity, genesis characteristics

CLC Number:

P732.31

LIANG Shun, HUANG Guibin, HE Guomei, ZHANG Yongchui, ZHOU Yi, WANG Yang, HONG Mei. Analysis of spatiotemporal variation characteristics of local typhoons in the South China Sea[J].Journal of Tropical Oceanography, 2026, 45(2): 59-70.

Figures/Tables 12

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References 20

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对比项目	土台风特征	洋台风特征	差异说明
生成频数	共445个, 年均5.86个, 年频数存在下降趋势	共619个, 年均8.14个, 无显著线性趋势	洋台风年均生成量显著多于土台风, 二者基本不相关
强度特征	热带低压为主(39.8%), 中心气压平均989.8hPa, 强度突变快, ACE指数小, 持续时间短(4.66d)	台风和超强台风为主(23.7%和21.0%), 中心气压平均961.3hPa, 强度变化慢, ACE指数大, 持续时间长(8.00d)	洋台风强度更高, 发展更缓慢; 土台风强度变化更具突发性; 洋台风ACE指数更大, 持续时间更长
活动区域	东北—西南分布, 集中南海中北部, 直接登陆比例高(海南岛、广东)	西北—东南分布, 主要分布菲律宾东西两侧, 登陆区域分散(中国华南至越南)	土台风活动范围小但登陆集中; 洋台风活动范围广且路径多样
移动特征	西/西北行路径为主, 陆上活动不超过30°N, 生命周期较短	西北/转向路径为主, 可深入内陆, 中国台湾岛东侧活动更频繁	土台风受南海局地环流影响显著; 洋台风受大尺度环流主导

Analysis of spatiotemporal variation characteristics of local typhoons in the South China Sea

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