Abstract: Mangroves are woody plant communities that grow in tropical and subtropical coastal tidal zones. Global warming has indirectly driven the expansion of mangrove forests to higher latitudes. Kandelia obovata, as the most cold-tolerant true mangrove species in China, is the core species for mangrove afforestation in Zhejiang Province. Against the dual background of climate warming and large-scale control of Spartina alterniflora, accurately identifying the suitable distribution areas of K. obovata from complex control sites has become a key issue in promoting afforestation at the northern edge of mangroves. To address this issue, this study integrates sample point data of K. obovata with distribution data from S. alterniflora control areas, along with environmental factors such as bioclimatic variables and elevation. By employing the MaxEnt species distribution model and the biological replacement method (replacing S. alterniflora with K. obovata), it systematically assesses the suitable distribution range of K. obovata in Zhejiang Province. The results showed that: (1) Under current climatic conditions, the area of suitable habitats for mangroves in Zhejiang Province is 18,210.76 hectares, of which 29.83% are highly suitable areas, mainly distributed in Wenzhou and Taizhou. (2) The area of suitable mangrove afforestation land within the S. alterniflora control areas in Zhejiang Province is 5,823.15 hectares, mainly located in Wenzhou Bay, Yueqing Bay, Sanmen Bay, Ningbo Bay, Xiangshan Harbor and other regions. (3) The area of priority development zones for mangroves in Zhejiang Province is 2,183.76 hectares, concentrated primarily in Yueqing Bay and Aojiang Estuary.The research results reveal that mangroves will mainly present a spreading pattern of migration to higher latitudes, clarify the distribution pattern of suitable habitats for mangroves in Zhejiang Province. The study provided data support for the climate change adaptation strategies of K. obovata, enhance the restoration success rate of this species in Zhejiang, and providing Chinese experience for the conservation and restoration of the northern edge of the global mangrove forests.

Key words: Kandelia obovata, Species Distribution Model, Climate Warming, Spartina alterniflora, Potential Distribution