Journal of Tropical Oceanography ›› 2020, Vol. 39 ›› Issue (1): 53-65.doi: 10.11978/2019042CSTR: 32234.14.2019042

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Comparison and prediction of unusual-turning tracks of typhoons Nock-ten and Orma

WANG Min1,2, YIN Yixing3(), CHEN Xiaoyang4, ZHAO Yang2   

  1. 1. Tianjin meteorological Information Center, Tianjin 300074 China
    2. State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing 100081 China
    3. School of Hydrology and Water Resources, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing 210044 China
    4. Shaoguan Meteorological Bureau, Shaoguan 512000 China
  • Received:2019-04-24 Revised:2019-06-26 Online:2020-01-20 Published:2020-01-09
  • Contact: Yixing YIN E-mail:yyxrosby@126.com
  • Supported by:
    National Natural Science Foundation of China(41671022);National Natural Science Foundation of China(41575063);Huai River Basin Meteorological Open Research Fund And Anhui Key Laboratory Of Atmospheric Science and Satellite Remote Sensing Open Fund(HRM201701)

Abstract:

In this paper, the circulations of Typhoon Nock-ten with abnormal northward turning and of Typhoon Omar with abnormal westward turning near Taiwan Island are analyzed and compared. The total flow is decomposed into climatic and anomalous flows, and the abnormal turning paths of Nock-ten and Omar are forecasted by using the beta-advection model. The results are as follows. 1) Analyses of total flow at 500 hPa reveal that the main influencing environmental systems include the western North Pacific subtropical high and the west trough during the period of unusual north-turning; the western North Pacific subtropical high and the Continental high merged and consolidated at the north and one typhoon in the southeast, which favored Orma’s unusual western turning. 2) Anomalous flows manifested that southwesterly wind gradually aggrandized on the south side of Nock-ten, the southeasterly wind gradually changed into southerly wind on the east side, forming a northwardly "belt" at the unusual north-turning time; there maintained an anticyclone during the unusual west-turning time on the north side of Orma. 3) The generalized beta-advection model is applied to identify the tracks of Nock-ten and Omar. Results show that the north-turning Nock-ten track is forecasted well by considering the climatic and anomalous flows, whereas the west-turning Orma is forecasted well with the consideration of anomalous flow.

Key words: tropical cyclone, unusual turning track, atmospheric variable decomposition, generalized beta-advection model

CLC Number: 

  • P732.31