南海发展与不发展热带扰动特征差异的对比分析

doi:10.11978/j.issn.1009-5470.2015.03.005

Abstract

Abstract: Tropical disturbances are part of the important weather systems in the tropical regions and have the potential to develop into tropical cyclones. In this study, the characteristics of developing and non-developing tropical disturbances over the South China Sea (SCS) were compared using satellite observations and reanalysis datasets. The results revealed that developing and non-developing tropical disturbances have significant regional and seasonal characteristics. The developing tropical disturbances have slower moving speeds and persist for a longer lifetime, compared with the non-developing tropical disturbances over the SCS. By investigating the meteorological variables for tropical disturbances over the SCS, five key environmental factors that could determine a tropical disturbance to develop or not are found, including the 850-hPa relative vorticity, vertical wind shear, the temperature difference between 850 and 500 hPa, the outgoing long wave radiation (OLR), and the mid-level atmospheric relative humidity. A forecasting equation has been developed based on these key meteorological factors to predict whether a tropical disturbance over the SCS will develop or not. These results can help us to better predict tropical disturbance development and tropical cyclone formation over the SCS.

Key words: tropical disturbance, tropical cyclone, South China Sea, cyclogenesis

GUO Zhi-liang, LI Wei-biao, WANG Lei, LIU Hao-ya. Comparison of developing and non-developing tropical disturbances over the South China Sea[J].Journal of Tropical Oceanography, 2015, 34(3): 36-47.

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Comparison of developing and non-developing tropical disturbances over the South China Sea

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