基于MaxEnt模型分析全球气候变化对中国沿海带鱼潜在分布的影响

doi:10.11978/2024241

Abstract

Abstract:

This study predicted the potential distribution of Trichiurus japonicus along China’s coastal waters under the influence of global climate change, using the maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model integrated with Geographic Information System (GIS) techniques. Species occurrence data (70 valid points) were obtained from Global Biodiversity Information Facility (GBIF) and FishBase, while environmental variables were sourced from Bio-ORACLE. Model performance was evaluated using the Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve, yielding a high accuracy (0.913) of Area Under the Curve (AUC). Our results indicated that suitable habitats for T. japonicus are distributed across China’s four major marine regions, with medium-to-high suitability areas accounting for 11.96% of the total predicted area. Temperature, chlorophyll concentration, and primary productivity were identified as key environmental factors affecting hairtail distribution. Model projections under different shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP) scenarios suggested an expansion of suitable habitats with a potential northward shift towards the Yellow Sea and Bohai Sea, while contracting in the waters of South China such as Beibu Gulf in the future.

Key words: Trichiurus japonicus, MaxEnt model, marine environmental factors, potential habitat, global climate change

CLC Number:

P735.121

FENG Zhanquan, SU Maoliang, DU Yuanyuan, ZHONG Youling, ZHANG Junbin. MaxEnt model predicting potential distribution of Trichiurus japonicus in the coastal waters of China under global climate change[J].Journal of Tropical Oceanography, 2025, 44(5): 77-85.

Figures/Tables 6

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References 53

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因子序号	环境因子	单位
bio_1	底层海流方向bot current direction	°
bio_2	底层海流速度bot current velocity	m·s^-1
bio_3	底层溶解氧bot dissolved oxygen	mmol·m^-3
bio_4	底层初级生产力bot primary productivity	mmol·m^-3
bio_5	底层盐度bot salinity	‰
bio_6	底层温度bot temperature	℃
bio_7	表层叶绿素surf chlorophyll	mg·m^-3
bio_8	表层海流方向surf current direction	°
bio_9	表层海流速度surf current velocity	m·s^-1
bio_10	表层溶解氧surf dissolved oxygen	mmol·m^-3
bio_11	表层初级生产力surf primary productivity	mmol·m^-3
bio_12	表层盐度surf salinity	‰
bio_13	表层温度surf temperature	℃

区域	现在/%	SSP1-1.9/%	SSP2-4.5/%	SSP5-8.5/%
不适宜区(0~MPT)	16.03	19.58	22.17	10.79
边缘适生区(MPT~10P)	52.10	48.00	45.85	56.07
低适生区(10P~0.5)	19.90	18.99	18.25	19.63
中适生区(0.5~0.75)	11.47	12.76	12.98	12.22
高适生区(0.75~1)	0.49	0.68	0.75	1.29

MaxEnt model predicting potential distribution of Trichiurus japonicus in the coastal waters of China under global climate change

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