南海北部次表层叶绿素最大值年际变化特征分析*

doi:10.11978/2020151

Abstract

Abstract:

Subsurface chlorophyll maxima (SCMs) are widely found in the global oceans. The layer of SCM accounts for a great proportion of marine primary productivity and new productivity. Studying the interannual variation of SCMs can deepen our understanding of marine ecosystems under climatic change. In this study, a one-dimensional physical-biological coupled model (MEM-1D) was used to simulate the vertical distribution of ocean temperature, salinity, nutrients, and chlorophyll in the northern South China Sea from 1994 to 2019. Based on numerical modeling results, we analyzed the interannual variations of SCM characteristics (intensity, depth and thickness) using three statistical methods from different aspects, i.e., overall trend, different time scales and significant changes. In general, the intensity of SCMs from 1994 to 2019 shows a slightly decreasing trend (the trend slope S<0). Specifically, the SCM intensity decreased from 1994 to 2004 ( decreased significantly from 1999 to 2004), while it increased from 2005 to 2012 and then decreased until 2019. The depth of SCMs showed a deepening tendency between 1994 and 2019 (the trend slope S>0), gradually becoming deeper from 1994 to 2011, and then shoaling; but the changing trend was not significant. The thickness of SCMs increased as a whole, and it had increased significantly since 1999. Correlation analysis showed no relationship between annually averaged sea-surface temperature (SST) and the characteristics of SCMs (P>0.05). The influence of SST on SCMs was mainly on the seasonal scale, and the depth and intensity of SCMs changed consistently with SST. The seasonal, autoregressively integrated moving average model has a good fit for the three characteristics of SCMs, with the mean absolute percentage errors of 5.33% for intensity, 0.62% for depth and 2.49% for thickness, indicating that the model can be used to predict the trend of SCM characteristics.

Key words: subsurface chlorophyll maximum, trend statistical analysis, time series model, numerical simulation, northern South China Sea

CLC Number:

X145

WANG Renzheng, SHAN Zhengduo, MENG Siyu, GONG Xiang. Interannual variation of subsurface chlorophyll maximum in the northern South China Sea[J].Journal of Tropical Oceanography, 2021, 40(6): 63-75.

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参数	单位	取值	参考文献
光透射系数k	m^-1	0.05	Chen et al, 2004; Chen, 2005
温度系数Q₁₀	d^-1	2.0	Vichi et al, 2007
Von Karman常数	–	0.4	Vichi et al, 2007
科氏参数	–	5.592×10^-5	–
Redfield N:C	Mmol N·mg^-1C^-1	0.0126	Vichi et al, 2007
Redfield P:C	mmol P·mg^-C^-1	0.768×10^-3	Vichi et al, 2007

参数	单位	取值
参数	单位	硅藻	鞭毛藻	微微型浮游植物	参考文献
最大生长率(10℃)	d^-1	2.1	2.1	2.1	Liu et al, 2002; Liu et al, 2007
呼吸率(10℃)	d^-1	0.15	0.1	0.1	Allen et al, 1998
排泄率	–	0.05	0.2	0.2	Vichi et al, 2007
最小N:C	mmol N·mg^-1 C^-1	0.00687	0.00687	0.00687	Vichi et al, 2007
最大N:C	mmol N·mg^-1 C^-1	0.0252	0.0252	0.0252	Vichi et al, 2007
最小P:C	mmol P·mg^-1 C^-1	0.428×10^-3	0.428×10^-3	0.428×10^-3	Vichi et al, 2007
最大P:C	mmol P·mg^-1 C^-1	0.157×10^-2	0.157×10^-2	0.157×10^-2	Vichi et al, 2007
对NO₃的吸收速率	mg^-1 C^-1·d^-1	0.0025	0.0025	0.0025	Vichi et al, 2007
对NH₄的吸收速率	mg^-1 C^-1·d^-1	0.0025	0.01	0.02	Vichi et al, 2007
对PO₄的吸收速率	mg^-1 C^-1·d^-1	0.0025	0.0025	0.0025	Vichi et al, 2007
沉降速率	m·d^-1	1.0	0.5	0.1	Lu et al, 2010
最小溶解率	d^-1	0.05	0.05	0.05	Vichi et al, 2007
Si摄入常数	mmol Si·m^-3	0.3	–	–	Vichi et al, 2007
标准Si:C	mmol Si·mg^-1 C^-1	0.03	–	–	Vichi et al, 2007
叶绿素a的转换因子	mg C·mg^-1 Chl-a^-1	25.0	50.0	50.0	Vichi et al, 2007

参数	单位	取值			参考文献
参数		异养鞭毛藻	微型浮游动物	中型浮游动物	参考文献
最大生长率(10℃)	d^-1	1.0	0.5	1.0	Liu et al, 2007; Vichi et al, 2007
同化作用效率	–	0.4	0.5	0.5	Vichi et al, 2007
呼吸率(10℃)	d^-1	0.02	0.02	0.02	Vichi et al, 2007
排泄率	–	0.5	0.5	0.5	Vichi et al, 2007
死亡率	d^-1	0.25	0.25	0.2	Vichi et al, 2007
最大N:C	mmol N·mg^-1 C^-1	0.0167	0.0167	–	Vichi et al, 2007
最大P:C	mmol P·mg^-1 C^-1	0.001	0.001	–	Vichi et al, 2007

参数	单位	取值	参考文献
细菌最大生长率	d^-1	8.38	Vichi et al, 2007
细菌呼吸率(10℃)	d^-1	0.02	Vichi et al, 2007
细菌磷元素摄入的m氏常数	mmol P·m^-3	0.05	Vichi et al, 2007
细菌氮元素摄入的m氏常数	mmol N·m^-3	0.5	Vichi et al, 2007
细菌氧限制的半饱和值	–	0.31	Vichi et al, 2007
细菌死亡率	d^-1	0.05	Vichi et al, 2007
碎屑分解率	d^-1	0.01	Vichi et al, 2007
碎屑相对硝化率	d^-1	0.05	Vichi et al, 2007
碎屑C:N(Redfield)	–	6.62	Vichi et al, 2007

季节	SCMs特征因子	与SST相关性参数
季节	SCMs特征因子	P	r
春季	强度	< 0.001	0.51^*
	深度	< 0.001	0.86^*
	厚度	–	–
夏季	强度	0.06	–
	深度	0.02	0.26^*
	厚度	–	–
秋季	强度	< 0.001	0.69^*
	深度	< 0.001	0.81^*
	厚度	–	–

Interannual variation of subsurface chlorophyll maximum in the northern South China Sea

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位置	SCMs特征因子	与海温相关性参数
位置	SCMs特征因子	P	r
上边界处	强度	0.01	-0.17^*
	深度	0.02	0.16^*
	厚度	0.002	0.20^*
深度处	强度	0.07	–
	深度	0.24	–
	厚度	0.50	–
下边界处	强度	0.30	–
	深度	0.35	–
	厚度	0.44	–

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