三亚湾溶解有机碳长期变化趋势及影响因素分析*

doi:10.11978/2025081

热带海洋学报 ›› 2026, Vol. 45 ›› Issue (2): 106-116.doi: 10.11978/2025081CSTR: 32234.14.2025081

三亚湾溶解有机碳长期变化趋势及影响因素分析^*

周伟华¹^,²^,³(), 姚煜坤¹^,²^,³^,⁴, 罗勇¹^,²^,³, 李涛¹^,²^,³, 龙爱民¹^,⁴, 黄晖¹^,²^,³

1.热带海洋生物资源与生态实验室, 广东省应用海洋生物学重点实验室, 中国科学院南海海洋研究所, 广东广州 510301
2.海南省热带海洋生物技术重点实验室, 三亚海洋生态环境工程研究院, 海南三亚 572000
3.海南三亚海洋生态系统国家野外科学观测研究站, 中国科学院海南热带海洋生物实验站, 海南三亚 572000
4.中国科学院大学, 北京 100049

收稿日期:2025-06-09 修回日期:2025-08-13 出版日期:2026-03-10 发布日期:2026-03-26
通讯作者: 周伟华
作者简介:
周伟华(1976—), 男, 浙江省东阳市人, 博士, 研究员, 主要从事海洋生态环境研究。email: whzhou@scsio.ac.cn
*感谢海南三亚海洋生态系统国家野外科学观测研究站(海南热带海洋生物实验站)全体人员在数据采集和分析过程中的贡献。
基金资助:
海南省自然科学基金项目(425QN506)

Long-term variation of dissolved organic carbon and its influencing factors in Sanya Bay^*

ZHOU Weihua¹^,²^,³(), YAO Yukun¹^,²^,³^,⁴, LUO Yong¹^,²^,³, LI Tao¹^,²^,³, LONG Aimin¹^,⁴, HUANG Hui¹^,²^,³

1. ??Laboratory of Tropical Marine Bio-resources and Ecology, Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Applied Marine Biology, South China Sea Institute of Oceanology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Guangzhou 510301, China
2. Key Laboratory of Tropical Marine Biotechnology of Hainan Province, Sanya Institute of Ocean Eco-Environmental Engineering, Sanya 572000, China
3. ??Sanya National Marine Ecosystem Research Station, Tropical Marine Biological Research Station in Hainan, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Sanya 572000, China
4. University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China

Received:2025-06-09 Revised:2025-08-13 Online:2026-03-10 Published:2026-03-26
Contact: ZHOU Weihua
Supported by:
Natural Science Foundation of Hainan Province(425QN506)

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

文章基于逐步回归分析与随机森林算法, 以三亚湾2008—2023年水体实测理化参数为输入数据, 探究了三亚湾溶解有机碳(dissolved organic carbon, DOC)的时空分布特征、演变趋势及其影响主因。结果表明, DOC质量浓度受三亚海岸带开发影响, 在2008—2018年期间显著上升, 随后呈逐步下降趋势, 可能源于疫情期间陆源输入减少以及政府加强海洋生态环境治理的综合影响; 近岸海域出现DOC的高值区, 但DOC质量浓度均值为(2.00 ± 1.34)mg·L^-1, 相比于半封闭型海湾, 整体维持在较低水平; 逐步回归分析与随机森林算法结果显示: DOC质量浓度随温度、总碱度和活性硅酸盐浓度升高先增后减, 且与总磷、溶解氧和活性磷酸盐呈显著负相关。这些结果表明, 温度、总碱度、总磷、活性硅酸盐、溶解氧和活性磷酸盐是影响三亚湾DOC的主要因子。

关键词: 溶解有机碳, 时空分布, 环境因子, 三亚湾

Abstract:

To explore the spatiotemporal changes, trends, and environmental impact factors of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) in Sanya Bay, water physicochemical parameters collected from 2008 to 2023 in Sanya Bay were used as the input data for analysis based on stepwise regression analysis (SR) and random forest algorithm (RF). The results showed that the DOC concentration increased significantly from 2008 to 2018 due to coastal development in Sanya. A subsequent decline in DOC concentration might have resulted from the combined effects of reduced land-based inputs during the COVID-19 pandemic and the government’s efforts to strengthen the management of the marine environment. High-value zones of DOC were observed on the coastal areas of Sanya Bay. The mean value of DOC concentration was (2.00 ± 1.34) mg·L^-1, which maintained at a lower level compared to other semi-enclosed bays. Both SR and RF results indicated that DOC concentrations generally exhibited an initial increase followed by a decrease with rising temperature, total alkalinity, and silicate concentration, and showed significant negative correlations with total phosphorus, dissolved oxygen, and phosphate. These findings demonstrate that temperature, total alkalinity, total phosphorus, silicate, dissolved oxygen, and phosphate are the main factors affecting DOC in Sanya Bay.

Key words: dissolved organic carbon, spatiotemporal distribution, environmental factors, Sanya Bay

中图分类号:

P734.43

周伟华, 姚煜坤, 罗勇, 李涛, 龙爱民, 黄晖. 三亚湾溶解有机碳长期变化趋势及影响因素分析^*[J]. 热带海洋学报, 2026, 45(2): 106-116.

ZHOU Weihua, YAO Yukun, LUO Yong, LI Tao, LONG Aimin, HUANG Hui. Long-term variation of dissolved organic carbon and its influencing factors in Sanya Bay^*[J]. Journal of Tropical Oceanography, 2026, 45(2): 106-116.

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[59]	ZHANG YIXUE, WU YING, ZHANG JING, et al, 2023. Different behaviors of organic matter under physical-biological controls in the eastern Indian Ocean[J]. Frontiers in Marine Science, 10: 1141844. doi: 10.3389/fmars.2023.1141844

参数	所有数据			表层数据			底层数据
参数	n	平均值±SD	范围	n	平均值±SD	范围	n	平均值±SD	范围
温度/℃	1528	26.27±2.29	20.69~32.17	764	26.89±2.25	21.01~32.17	764	25.65±2.17	20.69~32.03
盐度/‰	1501	33.66±0.76	30.22~35.44	749	33.51±0.83	30.22~35.44	752	33.80±0.64	31.76~35.42
透明度/m	1436	4.07±2.32	0.80~14.80	718	-	-	718	-	-
TSS/(mg·L^-1)	1333	13.75±14.73	0.00~88.13	666	13.03±14.86	0.00~88.13	667	14.48±14.56	0.20~85.00
TA/(mg·L^-1)	1264	2.52±0.19	2.00~2.99	649	2.53±0.20	2.02~2.99	615	2.52±0.19	2.00~2.95
DO/(mg·L^-1)	1522	6.30±0.78	3.76~10.35	761	6.35±0.78	3.76~10.35	761	6.25±0.78	3.80~9.54
DOC/(mg·L^-1)	1329	2.00±1.34	0.00~14.16	669	2.05±1.39	0.00~14.16	660	1.96±1.28	0.00~13.51
TP/(μmol·L^-1)	908	0.55±0.46	0.04~2.69	476	0.54±0.44	0.04~2.20	432	0.56±0.48	0.06~2.69
TN/(μmol·L^-1)	1299	30.00±25.15	0.94~193.20	647	30.39±25.56	2.37~193.20	652	29.61±24.74	0.94~186.79
DIN/(μmol·L^-1)	1406	1.94±2.04	0.07~24.61	702	2.07±2.22	0.07~18.84	704	1.82±1.85	0.09~24.61
$\text{PO}_{4}^{3-}$/(μmol·L^-1)	1174	0.10±0.13	0.00~1.31	570	0.10±0.13	0.01~1.31	604	0.10±0.13	0.00~1.16
$\text{SiO}_{3}^{2-}$/(μmol·L^-1)	1367	3.62±5.65	0.02~40.48	674	3.67±5.69	0.04~37.35	693	3.56±5.61	0.02~40.48
Chl a/(μg·L^-1)	1477	2.78±3.12	0.02~22.75	737	2.86±3.34	0.02~22.75	740	2.70±2.88	0.06~19.48

参数	表层数据	底层数据
数据总数	668	660
检验统计	14.50^{a, b}	5.78^{a, b}
自由度	11	11
渐进显著性(双侧检验)	0.21	0.89

引入变量	方差分析			回归系数
引入变量	调整R方	F值	显著性	B	标准错误	t	显著性
常数	0.077	22.435	<0.001	0.430	0.655	0.657	0.511
TP				-0.437	0.077	-5.656	<0.001
$\text{SiO}_{3}^{2-}$				0.035	0.006	6.026	<0.001
DO				-0.164	0.043	-3.822	<0.001
$\text{PO}_{4}^{3-}$				-0.999	0.267	-3.740	<0.001
TA				0.741	0.199	3.729	<0.001
温度				0.036	0.014	2.651	0.008

区域	纬度	DOC/(mg·L^-1)	季节	参考文献
渤海(边缘海)	37°07′—41°00′N	3.93±2.00	春季	刘军等(2015)
黄海(边缘海)	31°40′—39°54′N	2.58±1.27	春季	刘军等(2015)
东海(边缘海)	21°54′—33°11′N	1.08	夏季	石晓勇等(2013)
珠江口西侧近岸表层水体(边缘海)	21°00′—22°00′N	1.20	秋季	Meng等(2017)
胶州湾(半封闭型海湾)	36°00′—36°14′N	5.04	四季	Hu等(2020)
大亚湾(半封闭型海湾)	23°31′—24°50′N	1.59±0.14	夏季	黄道建等(2012)
钦州湾(半封闭型海湾)	21°36′—22°00′N	1.37±0.28	春季	Cai等(2023)
大西洋表层水体(大洋)	10°00′—15°00′N	0.60	春季和夏季	Pan 等(2014)
威德尔海表层水体(南大洋)	55°00′—70°00′S	0.56±0.04	夏季	Lechtenfeld等(2014)
三亚湾(开放型海湾)	18°11′—18°18′N	2.00±1.34	四季	本研究

三亚湾溶解有机碳长期变化趋势及影响因素分析^*

Long-term variation of dissolved organic carbon and its influencing factors in Sanya Bay^*

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三亚湾溶解有机碳长期变化趋势及影响因素分析*

Long-term variation of dissolved organic carbon and its influencing factors in Sanya Bay*

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三亚湾溶解有机碳长期变化趋势及影响因素分析^*

Long-term variation of dissolved organic carbon and its influencing factors in Sanya Bay^*