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Journal of Tropical Oceanography

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Global distribution pattern of grouper species and the evaluation of protection efficacy of Marine Protected Areas under climate change

YUAN Songxi1, 2, HUANG Hongwei1, 2, ZHANG Xu3, LIN Qiang1, 2, ZHANG Zhixin1, 2   

  1. 1. State Key Laboratory of Tropical Oceanography (South China Sea Institute of Oceanology, Chinese Academy of Sciences), Guangdong Guangzhou 510301, China;

    2. University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China;

    3. Guangzhou Liyang Aqua-Technology Co., Ltd., Guangdong Guangzhou 510301, China

    4 College of Life Science and Technology, Jinan University, Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Eutrophication and Red Tide Control, Guangzhou 510632, Guangdong, China



  • Received:2025-09-25 Revised:2025-12-18 Accepted:2026-03-06
  • Supported by:
    National Key Research and Development Program of China(2023YFC3108800); National Natural Science Foundation of China(42276126); the Guangdong Basic and Applied Basic Research Foundation(2024A1515010604)

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Abstract: Marine biodiversity is crucial to the global carbon cycle and ecosystem health, yet it faces severe threats from factors such as climate change. Although Marine Protected Areas (MPAs) are continuously expanding, their protection efficacy under future climate change remains to be thoroughly evaluated. Groupers, referred as blue food, represent an important marine fish group that is threatened by habitat degradation and population decline, making it particularly urgent to evaluate the protection efficacy for their protection. Based on 36,631 distribution records of 167 grouper species, this study employed Generalized Linear Model (GLM) to predict their potential suitable habitats under current and future under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 for 2040-2050 and 2090-2100. The study further analyzed the global distribution patterns of grouper diversity and using the World Database on Protected Areas to evaluat the efficacy of existing MPAs in protecting grouper species under future climate change. The results indicate that grouper species diversity is most concentrated in the Indo-Pacific convergence zone, exhibiting a typical bimodal latitudinal distribution pattern. Under high-emission scenarios in the future, suitable habitats are projected to shift significantly toward higher latitudes, with diversity markedly declining in tropical and subtropical seas. Although the current global MPAs provide an average protection efficacy of 16.66% for groupers, this value is expected to drop to 13% under future climate change, accompanied by a significant reduction in suitable habitat area. The study demonstrates that the existing MPA network may fail to adequately cover climate-driven shifts in species distributions and could be insufficient to maintain the long-term stability of grouper populations. It is recommended to enhance adaptive conservation planning, optimize MPA design, and integrate dynamic management strategies to improve climate-resilient protection for groupers and other reef-associated fishes.

Key words: climate change, grouper, geographical distribution pattern, Marine Protected Areas, protection efficacy