雷州市沿海风暴潮淹没危险性评估*

doi:10.11978/2018067

Abstract

Abstract:

A storm surge and wave coupled inundation simulation model for Lei Zhou coastal areas at high resolution has been established based on ADCIRC (a parallel advanced circulation model for oceanic, coastal and estuarine waters) and SWAN (simulating waves nearshore) ocean numerical models. A total of 1415 typhoon cases that seriously impacted Lei Zhou were simulated. The result of contrastive analysis shows that wave has a significant impact on storm surge in Lei Zhou coastal areas. We designed 35 typhoon cases based on 8007 typhoons, and reserve flooded area and submerged depth for seven different grades. The inundated area of Lei Zhou can reach 463.2 km² under 900 hPa grade. We developed 60 cases of possible maximum storm surge and calculated the biggest inundated extent and depth. Under the impact of maximum typhoon, the sea water will spill over seawalls and cause serious flooding disaster. The total submerged area is 602.0 km² in Lei Zhou. The area whose dangerousness is first grade with flooding depth bigger than 3 m is 465.8 km². The eastern coastal areas of Lei Zhou will face larger storm surge disaster risk than the western coastal areas. The results of the study have important implications for guiding prevention and mitigation work of storm surge disaster in Lei Zhou.

Key words: storm surge, coupled model, inundation, risk assessment

CLC Number:

P732.25

Min ZHANG, Jun LUO, Jinlei HU, Xuezhi ZENG. Inundation risk assessment of storm surge along Lei Zhou coastal areas^*[J].Journal of Tropical Oceanography, 2019, 38(2): 1-12.

Figures/Tables 20

Fig. 1

Fig. 2

Fig. 3

Fig. 4

Fig. 5

Fig. 6

Fig. 7

Fig. 8

Fig. 9

Tab. 1

The maximal storm surge (units: m) of every representative point during No. 8007 typhoon cases"

路径	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9
t0	4.291	4.142	3.648	3.413	3.707	0.453	0.465	0.445	0.407
t1	4.383	4.219	3.718	3.469	3.785	0.447	0.462	0.454	0.397
t2	4.469	4.300	3.790	3.541	3.853	0.450	0.464	0.451	0.399
t3	4.557	4.391	3.872	3.604	3.933	0.451	0.460	0.447	0.393
t4	4.654	4.472	3.945	3.677	4.010	0.445	0.458	0.440	0.390
t5	4.745	4.567	4.020	3.745	4.114	0.439	0.452	0.442	0.378
t6	4.852	4.657	4.111	3.835	4.218	0.442	0.445	0.435	0.374
t7	4.967	4.777	4.206	3.937	4.361	0.435	0.442	0.434	0.394
t8	5.103	4.896	4.318	4.056	4.508	0.436	0.441	0.423	0.442
t9	5.251	5.044	4.434	4.189	4.675	0.439	0.448	0.432	0.452
t10	5.424	5.192	4.563	4.325	4.849	0.442	0.450	0.431	0.451
t11	5.593	5.352	4.682	4.456	5.028	0.456	0.453	0.449	0.492
t12	5.768	5.504	4.806	4.577	5.180	0.465	0.475	0.440	0.465
t13	5.922	5.632	4.911	4.663	5.294	0.495	0.480	0.467	0.499
t14	6.033	5.723	4.980	4.697	5.324	0.509	0.487	0.485	0.507
t15	6.064	5.706	4.953	4.587	5.028	0.699	0.512	0.473	0.493
t16	5.966	5.565	4.832	4.346	4.649	0.829	0.505	0.489	0.501
t17	5.718	5.266	4.567	4.075	4.436	0.892	0.623	0.489	0.519
t18	5.433	4.942	4.240	3.818	4.117	0.916	0.727	0.480	0.484
t19	5.151	4.649	3.979	3.560	3.750	0.929	0.791	0.481	0.527
t20	4.763	4.265	3.681	3.297	3.400	1.018	0.866	0.477	0.503
t21	4.346	3.850	3.377	3.038	3.065	1.099	0.948	0.478	0.545
t22	3.918	3.436	3.078	2.773	2.736	1.174	1.049	0.516	0.571
t23	3.587	3.121	2.809	2.508	2.399	1.205	1.184	0.631	0.534
t24	3.332	2.867	2.550	2.233	2.045	1.221	1.225	0.731	0.538
t25	3.062	2.607	2.294	1.944	1.742	1.233	1.230	0.821	0.554
t26	2.777	2.342	2.083	1.743	1.643	1.169	1.186	0.931	0.575
t27	2.469	2.062	1.859	1.570	1.507	1.088	1.107	0.983	0.572
t28	2.167	1.778	1.642	1.408	1.347	1.027	1.012	0.955	0.601
t29	1.958	1.584	1.415	1.221	1.161	0.957	0.932	1.015	0.663
t30	1.694	1.341	1.186	1.040	0.908	0.886	0.864	0.982	0.717
t31	1.387	1.060	0.981	0.900	0.722	0.826	0.803	0.900	0.747
t32	1.227	0.899	0.814	0.793	0.627	0.751	0.725	0.811	0.863
t33	1.107	0.791	0.709	0.696	0.569	0.690	0.651	0.727	0.819
t34	1.017	0.713	0.652	0.628	0.507	0.622	0.580	0.642	0.746
t35	0.950	0.659	0.609	0.568	0.476	0.572	0.530	0.554	0.758

Tab. 1

Tab. 2

Fig. 10

Fig. 11

Tab. 3

Tab. 4

Tab. 5

Fig. 12

Fig. 13

Tab. 6

Tab. 7

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级别	最低气压/hPa	湛江站		南渡站		硇洲站
级别	最低气压/hPa	最大增水/m	最高潮位/m	最大增水/m	最高潮位/m	最大增水/m	最高潮位/m
Ⅰ	900	5.993	7.694	6.898	9.691	4.892	5.222
Ⅱ	910	5.586	7.335	6.455	9.333	4.522	4.852
Ⅲ	920	5.202	7.053	6.093	8.949	4.261	4.591
Ⅳ	930	4.759	6.737	5.637	8.348	3.969	4.299
Ⅴ	940	4.373	6.443	5.162	7.721	3.674	4.004
Ⅵ	950	3.532	5.772	4.369	6.728	3.108	3.438
Ⅶ	960	3.066	5.368	3.798	6.049	2.653	2.983

	东岸淹没面积/km²					西岸淹没面积/km²
危险性等级	Ⅰ	Ⅱ	Ⅲ	Ⅳ	合计	Ⅰ	Ⅱ	Ⅲ	Ⅳ	合计
淹没水深/m	[3,+∞)	[1.2~3.0)	[0.5~1.2)	[0.15~0.5)	合计	[3,+∞)	[1.2~3.0)	[0.5~1.2)	[0.15~0.5)	合计
一级, 900hPa	176.5	162.4	23.5	5.4	367.8	0.3	59.6	23.9	11.6	95.4
二级, 910 hPa	131.9	161.7	38.1	6.1	337.8	0	45.8	27.2	11.1	84.1
三级, 920 hPa	67.4	96.3	79.8	27.9	271.4	0	44.3	22.9	10.1	77.3
四级, 930 hPa	57.3	23.7	36.0	15.1	132.1	0	42.3	23.5	9.4	75.2
五级, 940 hPa	50.7	17.9	32.6	12.3	113.5	0	35.4	23.2	9.7	68.3
六级, 950 hPa	32.3	19.4	2.2	2.0	55.9	0	14.2	32.6	11.5	58.3
七级, 960 hPa	27.7	17.7	4.0	0.2	49.6	0	9.3	35.0	11.9	56.2

角度	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9
67°30′	8.410	7.989	6.998	6.968	8.146	3.075	2.734	1.776	0.488
75°00′	9.057	8.442	7.651	6.843	7.603	2.788	2.341	1.541	0.330
82°30′	9.321	8.641	7.536	6.696	6.743	2.631	2.164	1.254	0.476
90°00′	9.347	9.007	7.733	6.950	6.910	2.450	1.893	0.608	0.468

站位	最大增水/m	最高潮位/m
湛江	7.806	10.081
硇洲	5.534	7.184
南渡	8.015	10.382

	东岸					西岸
危险性等级	Ⅰ	Ⅱ	Ⅲ	Ⅳ	合计	Ⅰ	Ⅱ	Ⅲ	Ⅳ	合计
淹没水深/m	[3,+∞)	[1.2~3.0)	[0.5~1.2)	[0.15~0.5)	合计	[3,+∞)	[1.2~3.0)	[0.5~1.2)	[0.15~0.5)	合计
面积/km²	408.9	41.1	6.2	0.8	457.0	56.9	44.5	31.2	12.4	145.0

Inundation risk assessment of storm surge along Lei Zhou coastal areas^*

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Inundation risk assessment of storm surge along Lei Zhou coastal areas*

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Inundation risk assessment of storm surge along Lei Zhou coastal areas^*