三亚湾溶解有机碳长期变化趋势及影响因素分析*

doi:10.11978/2025081

Abstract

Abstract:

To explore the spatiotemporal changes, trends, and environmental impact factors of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) in Sanya Bay, water physicochemical parameters collected from 2008 to 2023 in Sanya Bay were used as the input data for analysis based on stepwise regression analysis (SR) and random forest algorithm (RF). The results showed that the DOC concentration increased significantly from 2008 to 2018 due to coastal development in Sanya. A subsequent decline in DOC concentration might have resulted from the combined effects of reduced land-based inputs during the COVID-19 pandemic and the government’s efforts to strengthen the management of the marine environment. High-value zones of DOC were observed on the coastal areas of Sanya Bay. The mean value of DOC concentration was (2.00 ± 1.34) mg·L^-1, which maintained at a lower level compared to other semi-enclosed bays. Both SR and RF results indicated that DOC concentrations generally exhibited an initial increase followed by a decrease with rising temperature, total alkalinity, and silicate concentration, and showed significant negative correlations with total phosphorus, dissolved oxygen, and phosphate. These findings demonstrate that temperature, total alkalinity, total phosphorus, silicate, dissolved oxygen, and phosphate are the main factors affecting DOC in Sanya Bay.

Key words: dissolved organic carbon, spatiotemporal distribution, environmental factors, Sanya Bay

CLC Number:

P734.43

ZHOU Weihua, YAO Yukun, LUO Yong, LI Tao, LONG Aimin, HUANG Hui. Long-term variation of dissolved organic carbon and its influencing factors in Sanya Bay*[J].Journal of Tropical Oceanography, 2026, 45(2): 106-116.

Figures/Tables 9

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参数	所有数据			表层数据			底层数据
参数	n	平均值±SD	范围	n	平均值±SD	范围	n	平均值±SD	范围
温度/℃	1528	26.27±2.29	20.69~32.17	764	26.89±2.25	21.01~32.17	764	25.65±2.17	20.69~32.03
盐度/‰	1501	33.66±0.76	30.22~35.44	749	33.51±0.83	30.22~35.44	752	33.80±0.64	31.76~35.42
透明度/m	1436	4.07±2.32	0.80~14.80	718	-	-	718	-	-
TSS/(mg·L^-1)	1333	13.75±14.73	0.00~88.13	666	13.03±14.86	0.00~88.13	667	14.48±14.56	0.20~85.00
TA/(mg·L^-1)	1264	2.52±0.19	2.00~2.99	649	2.53±0.20	2.02~2.99	615	2.52±0.19	2.00~2.95
DO/(mg·L^-1)	1522	6.30±0.78	3.76~10.35	761	6.35±0.78	3.76~10.35	761	6.25±0.78	3.80~9.54
DOC/(mg·L^-1)	1329	2.00±1.34	0.00~14.16	669	2.05±1.39	0.00~14.16	660	1.96±1.28	0.00~13.51
TP/(μmol·L^-1)	908	0.55±0.46	0.04~2.69	476	0.54±0.44	0.04~2.20	432	0.56±0.48	0.06~2.69
TN/(μmol·L^-1)	1299	30.00±25.15	0.94~193.20	647	30.39±25.56	2.37~193.20	652	29.61±24.74	0.94~186.79
DIN/(μmol·L^-1)	1406	1.94±2.04	0.07~24.61	702	2.07±2.22	0.07~18.84	704	1.82±1.85	0.09~24.61
${\text{PO}}_{4}^{3-}$/(μmol·L^-1)	1174	0.10±0.13	0.00~1.31	570	0.10±0.13	0.01~1.31	604	0.10±0.13	0.00~1.16
${\text{SiO}}_{3}^{2-}$/(μmol·L^-1)	1367	3.62±5.65	0.02~40.48	674	3.67±5.69	0.04~37.35	693	3.56±5.61	0.02~40.48
Chl a/(μg·L^-1)	1477	2.78±3.12	0.02~22.75	737	2.86±3.34	0.02~22.75	740	2.70±2.88	0.06~19.48

参数	表层数据	底层数据
数据总数	668	660
检验统计	14.50^{a, b}	5.78^{a, b}
自由度	11	11
渐进显著性(双侧检验)	0.21	0.89

引入变量	方差分析			回归系数
引入变量	调整R²	F值	显著性	B	标准错误	t	显著性
常数	0.077	22.435	<0.001	0.430	0.655	0.657	0.511
TP				-0.437	0.077	-5.656	<0.001
${\text{SiO}}_{3}^{2-}$				0.035	0.006	6.026	<0.001
DO				-0.164	0.043	-3.822	<0.001
${\text{PO}}_{4}^{3-}$				-0.999	0.267	-3.740	<0.001
TA				0.741	0.199	3.729	<0.001
温度				0.036	0.014	2.651	0.008

区域	纬度	DOC/(mg·L^-1)	季节	参考文献
渤海(边缘海)	37°07′—41°00′N	3.93±2.00	春季	刘军等(2015)
黄海(边缘海)	31°40′—39°54′N	2.58±1.27	春季	刘军等(2015)
东海(边缘海)	21°54′—33°11′N	1.08	夏季	石晓勇等(2013)
珠江口西侧近岸表层水体(边缘海)	21°00′—22°00′N	1.20	秋季	Meng等(2017)
胶州湾(半封闭型海湾)	36°00′—36°14′N	5.04	四季	Hu等(2020)
大亚湾(半封闭型海湾)	23°31′—24°50′N	1.59±0.14	夏季	黄道建等(2012)
钦州湾(半封闭型海湾)	21°36′—22°00′N	1.37±0.28	春季	Cai等(2023)
大西洋表层水体(大洋)	10°00′—15°00′N	0.60	春季和夏季	Pan 等(2014)
威德尔海表层水体(南大洋)	55°00′—70°00′S	0.56±0.04	夏季	Lechtenfeld等(2014)
三亚湾(开放型海湾)	18°11′—18°18′N	2.00±1.34	四季	本研究

Long-term variation of dissolved organic carbon and its influencing factors in Sanya Bay*

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