南海-印度洋海域海洋安全灾害评估与风险区划

doi:10.11978/j.issn.1009-5470.2012.06.019

Abstract

Abstract: Aiming at the rich marine resource, important strategic status and potential natural disaster as well as man-made disaster such as terrorism and military conflict in the South China Sea and Indian Ocean, assessment indices were selected for risk evaluation modeling from disaster-forming environment, menace of disaster-causing factor and disaster-bearing substance based on risk assessment theory. Then, natural disaster risk, man-made disaster risk and synthetic risk were calculated and zoned, respectively, using GIS platform. The results suggested that in winter the regions with the highest synthetic risk are located in the Gulf of Aden, the top of the Bay of Bengal, around Malacca and southeastern offshore of Vietnam, with the second-highest synthetic risk regions located in the northeastern South China Sea, west of the Spratly Islands, Sunda Strait, Makassar Strait, Laccadive Sea, the coast of Somalia and the Hormuz Strait. In summer, the Gulf of Aden, the top of the Bay of Bengal, and Malacca are the highest synthetic risk regions, while the central and western Arabian Sea, northeastern waters off Somalia, southwest coast of Sri Lanka, west coast of Luzon, and region near the Bashi Channel are the second-highest synthetic risk regions.

Key words: South China Sea, Indian Ocean, marine disaster, risk assessment, safety of navigation

CLC Number:

LI Xin, HONG Mei, WANG Bo, ZHANG Ren, GE Shan-shan, QIAN Long-xia. Disaster assessment and risk zoning concerning the South China Sea and Indian Ocean safety[J].Journal of Tropical Oceanography, 2012, 31(6): 121-127.

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Disaster assessment and risk zoning concerning the South China Sea and Indian Ocean safety

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